《海洋预报》| 江苏沿海台风风暴潮特征分析|东海|台风风暴潮|江苏省|海洋预报|灾害

江苏沿海台风风暴潮特征分析

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作者：刘仕潮1 2 李明杰1 2 吴少华1 2

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2024·41·第二期（1-12）

摘要：收集了1950—2022年影响江苏沿海的历史台风风暴潮过程资料,对引起江苏沿海台风风暴潮的台风路径进行了分类和分析,开展了江苏沿海台风风暴潮的月际分布和年际变化研究,提出了不同路径台风风暴潮的预报要点。结果表明:引起江苏沿海台风风暴潮次数最多的是外海转向型台风,占比高达44.3 %,而正面登陆型台风最少,占比只有5.4 %,但引起的增水量值最大;江苏沿海台风风暴潮在6—10月均有出现,8月出现次数最多;风暴潮强度等级为Ⅴ级(增水50~100 cm)的过程占比最多,为42.7 %,而高潮位超警戒程度等级为Ⅳ级(超警戒30 cm之内或达到黄色警戒潮位值)的占比最多,为45.0 %;风暴潮发生次数在近几年呈上升趋势,尤其是增水为50~100 cm的过程,高潮位超警戒或达到黄色警戒潮位值以上的过程在近20年只出现3次;在江苏沿海台风风暴潮的预报和应对中,需要重视可能正面登陆的和9—10月的外海转向型台风;8月和9月是江苏沿海出现风暴潮灾害可能性较高的月份,若这两个月的天文高潮与风暴增水叠加合适,极有可能出现达到黄色警戒潮位以上的高潮位。

关键词：风暴潮江苏沿海台风路径风暴潮强度警戒潮位变化趋势

Abstract：In this paper, the historical typhoon storm surge data affecting Jiangsu coast from 1950 to 2022 was collected. The tracks of typhoon which causing the typhoon storm surge along the Jiangsu coast were classified and analyzed. A study on the monthly distribution and interannual variation of the typhoon storm surge along the Jiangsu coast was carried out, and key points of forecasting for typhoon storm surge in different tracks were proposed. The results show that the most frequent typhoon storm surge along the Jiangsu coast was the offshore turning track of typhoon, accounting for 44.3 %, while the least number of storm surge was caused by the landfall track, accounting for only 5.4 %, but causing the largest surge. Typhoon storm surge affects the Jiangsu coast in June to October, with the most frequent in August. The intensity of storm surge level Ⅴ(50~100 cm surge) was the most frequent, accounting for 42.7 %, while the high tide level over the warning tidal level Ⅳ(within 30 cm above or reaching the yellow warning tidal level) was the most frequent, accounting for 45.0 %. The number of storm surge has shown an increasing trend in recent years, especially the process of surge of 50~100 cm, and the process of high tidal level over the warning tidal level or reaching the yellow warning tidal level has only appeared 3 times in the past 20 years. Emphasis should be paid to the possible landfall or offshore turning typhoons in September and October in the forecast and response to typhoon storm surges in Jiangsu. August and September are the months with high probability of storm surge disaster in Jiangsu coast every year. If the astronomical high tide and storm surge in these two months are superimposed appropriately, there is a high probability that the high tidal level will reach above the yellow warning tidal level.

Key words：storm surge; Jiangsu coast; typhoon track; intensity of storm surge; warning tidal level; variation trend