消除生产波动3大利器之使用时间|163

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The third way to decouple fluctuations is by time. This is – if you so will – the default option. If you didn’t manage to decouple using buffer or capacity, eventually somebody has to wait. This may be either the customer (if demand is larger than capacity) or your operators and machines (if demand is less than capacity).

第三种消除波动的方法是通过时间来进行。如果愿意，这是默认的选项。如果没有使用缓冲或者生产能力（产能）来消除波动，最终会有人必须在时间上进行等待。这可能是客户（如果需求大于生产能力（产能）），或者操作员和机器（如果需求小于生产能力（产能））。

Hence, as far as decoupling goes, decoupling through time is the easiest way to decouple, since it happens automatically. Unfortunately, it is often also the least desirable way to decouple. You don’t have to do anything; somebody just has to wait. In fact, many companies that put in an enormous effort to decouple using inventory or capacity still sometimes have to let the customer wait.

因此，就消除波动而言，通过时间去消除是最简单的方法，因为这是自然而然发生的。不幸的是，这通常也是最为不理想的消除波动的方法。你不用做任何事，只要有人等待。事实上，许多公司为使用库存或者生产能力（产能）来消除波动而付出了巨大的努力，不过，有时还是不得不让客户去等待。

The tricky side of the decoupling through time is the cost associated with it. If your operators have to wait, this cost is easy to calculate. Additionally, you can still try to send them home early or use the time to do other things that create value for them. Some companies (e.g., Toyota, Scania) have opted to use the time for improvement activities even if the slump lasts for months (e.g., by sending their operators through training and by improving the processes).

利用时间消除波动的棘手方面是与之相关的成本。如果操作人员必须等待的话，那么，这项成本很容易可以计算出来。此外，你还可以试着让员工早些回家，或者利用时间做其他的事情为他们创造价值。一些公司（诸如，日本丰田汽车公司、瑞典的货车及巴士制造厂商斯堪尼亚）已选择把时间用在了改善活动上，即使经济衰退持长达数月（例如，通过培训和流程改进来驱动操作人员）。

The cost of letting your customer wait, however, is more difficult to assess. If you have a powerful monopoly customer, letting them wait can quickly become expensive. Many automotive manufacturers are not shy about requesting money for line stoppages caused by the supplier, which can quickly reach millions of dollars.

然而，让客户等待的成本是难以评估的。如果有某个强大的垄断性的客户，让对方等待很快就会变得代价不菲。许多汽车制造商会毫不迟疑地向供应商索要因其造成的停线而产生的费用，而这样的费用很快就能达到数百万美元。

If on the other hand you are the monopoly supplier … well … tough luck for the customer. He can’t really go anywhere else. Maybe some of you remember the quality of service and prices of the Bell Systems phone network before the break up of Ma Bell into little bells in 1984? Or the service of the Deutsche Telekom before 1989 (although it seems some of the Deutsche Telekom haven’t noticed yet that they are no longer a monopoly…).

另一方面，如果你是垄断性供应商……那么……对客户来说，运气真的很背。对方没有其他的选择。也许一些人还记得1984年Ma Bell(注：“贝尔大妈”，这是对美国电报电话公司的戏称，该公司是现在的AT&T公司的前身，当年，根据美国政府的反垄断措施，Ma Bell公司1984年在法院的命令下被肢解成了七个小公司，当时AT&T公司控制了长途电话业务，而其他的小公司则分管不同区域的本地电话业务。)被拆分成若干家小贝尔公司之前，贝尔系统电话网络的服务质量和价格吗？或者，1989年以前德意志电信的服务吗？（尽管德国电信的一些人似乎还没有注意到他们不再是垄断企业）。

In many cases, these waiting times are used systematically to decouple fluctuations. This is true for companies that sell customized made-to-order products or have market power over their customers. For example, if you order a new Toyota, they will tell you when it fits in their production schedule. Hence, you, the customer, have to wait rather than Toyota stocking up millions of vehicles just in case.

在许多情况下，这些等待时间被系统地用来消除波动。这对于销售定制产品，或者对客户拥有市场影响力的公司来说，这是正确的。例如，如果订购一辆丰田新车，他们会告诉你什么时候该车适合他们的生产计划。因此，作为客户，你得等待，而不是丰田汽车公司储备数百万辆汽车，以防万一。

总结

Most companies use a combination of the above three to decouple fluctuations. Inventory is best used for short-term fluctuations due to its large cost. Slower acting but cheaper capacity is best used to cover larger or longer fluctuations that ideally are predictable. Decoupling through time is the default resort for companies whose market position cannot afford it, and a useful tool for those companies that can afford it.

事实上，大多数的公司会将上述三种方法进行组合来消除波动。由于库存的成本高，因此，库存最好用于应付短期的波动。迟缓但却经济的生产能力（产能）的行动，最好用来覆盖更大或者更长的波动，理想情况下是可以预测的。通过时间来消除波动，是那些市场地位承受不起的公司的默认手段，也是那些市场地位承受得起的公司的有用工具。

Of course, do not forget that there are also ways to reduce fluctuation in the first place, as, for example, by working with smaller lot sizes or order sizes (ideally one-piece flow), cooperating with suppliers, etc. (See Introduction to One-Piece Flow Leveling for more.)

当然，大家不要忘记，还是有一些方法可以减少波动的，比如，处理较小的批量或者订单规模（理想情况是：单件流），与供应商合作，等等（更多信息，请阅读《单件流的介绍》）。

How is the situation in your company? Where would you use inventory or capacity, and where could you use time? Think about it when you go out and organize your industry!

你所在的公司的状况如何？你会在何处使用库存，或者生产能力（产能），或者时间呢？在你出去对生产制造进行规划时，请思考这个问题吧！

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