揭秘！从英国货车惨案, 深度剖析偷渡地下产业链！

揭秘！从英国货车惨案, 深度剖析偷渡地下产业链！(视音频+中英全文)

原创：乐活英伦乐活英伦11月5日

2019年11月6日

英国“死亡集装箱货车”事件令世人震惊，当地警方曾称39名死者据信为中国人，但据最新消息，英国埃塞克斯郡警方又表示，相信埃塞克斯郡集装箱藏尸案中的39名遇难者全部为越南公民。

而这39条亡魂，不过是全球人口走私犯罪的冰山一角！

偷渡到底要花多少钱？偷渡路线还有VIP和普通等级之分？为何有人甘冒生命危险偷渡他国？蛇头到底是些什么人？人蛇集团又是如何运作的？

国际移民问题专家、日内瓦安全政策中心成员哈立德·科泽尔（Khalid Koser）深度剖析——

贩运人口和移民偷渡的经济动机，及其背后庞大复杂而又环环相扣的产业链！

移民走私贩运来自乐活英伦00:0014:38

中英全文

Every year, millions of people are smuggled around the world. Our inability to stop the smuggling of people represents one of the greatest policy failures of modern history.

每年，有多达数百万人口，被走私至世界各地。我们无力解决人口走私问题。这是现代史上最重大的政策失败。

Consider this, we have an International Convention on migrant smuggling, that's been widely ratified and signed by over a hundred states. We have international organisations and NGOs that dedicate themselves full time to stopping migrant smuggling. Each year hundreds of millions of dollars are spent on projects and programmes to try to stop people smuggling, and yet every year inexorably, inevitably, year on year, the number of people smuggled around the world increases and doesn't decrease.

试想，我们确立了打击移民走私的国际公约，该公约得到100多个国家的批准和签署。我们还建立了专门致力于打击移民偷运的国际组织和非政府组织，每年投入数亿美元在打击移民偷运的项目和计划上。然而不可避免地，年复一年，日复一日，偷渡者数量依然逐年增加，水涨船高，丝毫不见减少。

In this presentation, I'd like to suggest one reason for this gap between policy and reality, and that reason is we have fundamentally misunderstood what migrant smuggling is.

此次演讲中，我想指出，政策和现实之间出现如此落差的原因。原因就是，我们从根本上误解了什么是移民偷运。

We don't understand who is involved, we don't understand why they're involved, and we don't understand how the process works. And I'd like to suggest to you that perhaps an alternative and better way to understand migrant smuggling is to view it as a business, in which every single person is incentivised to make money.

我们不知道到底有谁参与其中，我们不知道这些人为何参与其中，我们也不知道整个流程如何运作。在此我想提出，理解移民偷运的一种更好的方法。那就是，将其看作一种商业模式。参与这条产业链的每个人，都是因为有利可图。

Before doing that, let me reflect briefly on why this topic matters, why should you care about migrant smuggling.

首先我要先解释，为何这一问题如此重要，为何我们要重视移民走私贩运？

Well I think there are at least three reasons. The most important reason is that migrant smuggling kills people, whether it's people drowning off Christmas Island on the way to Australia, or people drowning in the Mediterranean moving between North Africa and Europe, whether it's people dying of heat exhaustion in the Arizona desert between Mexico and the United States of America, or whether it's through asphyxiation and suffocation in the back of trucks in Eastern Europe. Migrant smuggling kills thousands of people each year.

我认为，原因至少有三。最重要的原因是，移民走私致死事故频发。无论是为前往澳大利亚，在圣诞岛海域溺水丧生的人；或是北非往来欧洲，在地中海溺水身亡的人；无论是横穿美墨边界，在亚利桑那州的沙漠中因中暑脱水而殒命的人；或是藏于东欧的货车箱内，因缺氧窒息而死的人。移民偷运每年造成数千人死亡。

Those people who aren't killed, those people who make it, those people who find work in destination countries, find themselves exploited and vulnerable, whether it's men working as cockle pickers in Morecambe Bay, or as ship breakers in Bangladesh; whether it's women working as prostitutes in Thailand, or as domestic servants in the Gulf states; whether it's children working as camel jockeys in the United Arab Emirates, or in weaving factories in Pakistan. Migrant smuggling exposes individuals to enormous harm and enormous vulnerability.

而那些幸免逃生的人，那些成功抵达目的地国家的人，即便在当地找到工作，也难免成为遭受剥削的受害者。男性偷渡者，无论是在莫克姆湾做拾贝者，或是在孟加拉国做拆船工；还有女性，无论是被迫在泰国卖淫，或是在海湾国家做家佣；还有儿童，无论是在阿联酋做骆驼骑师，或在巴基斯坦的纺织厂做童工。移民偷运带来的非法劳工，极易受到极大的伤害与剥削。

【注释1】英格兰的莫克姆湾贝类价值颇高，但那里风高浪急，拾贝充满危险。2004年， 23名中国非法劳工在拾贝时，被海潮无情地夺去了生命。

【注释2】全球三分之一的报废船只都在孟加拉国完成拆卸，劳工高强度长时间工作，每年几十例事故死亡，日薪仅3美元。而拆船时肆意排放的污染物，让工人的患癌率日益升高。

But a second reason you should care about migrant smuggling is that it risks undermining national security as well. Very often the people who smuggle individual human beings also the same people who smuggle drugs and who smuggle weapons to. Migrant smuggling undermines the exercise of national sovereignty, it moves into your countries large number of people, who you don't know about their whereabouts, or what they're doing or how they entered the country. National security concerns very important indeed.

需要重视移民走私的第二个原因是，会对国家安全构成威胁。很多情况下，贩运走私人口的蛇头，同样也是毒品和武器的走私犯。非法移民贩运损害了国家主权的行使，将大批外来人口带入你的国家。而这些人的行踪下落，在你的国家做些什么，以及如何进入你的国家，你对这一切一无所知。这确实给国家安全带来了极大的威胁。

A third reason why migrant smuggling matters, and I think especially in this European context in which we are find ourselves today, is that migrant smuggling is one reason why we have a rising wave of xenophobia and discrimination against migrants in many of our societies. One of the reasons we have that rising wave of discrimination is because too many people are entering our countries without authorisation.

移民贩运问题之所以重要的第三个原因，尤其是在我们如今所处的欧洲环境下：移民偷运，正是当今欧洲社会所存在的，针对移民的仇外和歧视日益高涨的原因之一。歧视现象愈发频繁和明显的原因之一，是有太多外来人口，未经授权非法入境并滞留。

So for at least three reasons we should care about migrant smuggling and try to understand how to stop it.

因此，至少出于以上三点，我们必须重视移民偷运问题，并理解如何防止移民偷运。

Let me now suggest you that an alternative way to understand migrant smuggling, that might give us some insights into how to stop migrant smuggling, is to view it as a business.

接下来我要指出，理解移民偷运的一种特殊方式。这种理解方式，对如何防止移民偷运，或许有所助益，那就是将其视作一门生意 。

And I'd like to do this by following the money. I'm going to follow the money through the smuggling process from the beginning to the end.

要做到这点，就得"跟着钱走"。追踪整个人口偷运过程中，从源头到终点的资金流向。

Let's start at the beginning.

咱们从头说起。

How much does migrant smuggling cost? Well it of course costs vary. If you want me to smuggle you across a local border in Africa, I'll do it for a bag of rice. If you want me to smuggle you from Beijing to Vancouver, I'll charge you 30 dollars. But I can also adjust my costs. If you're wealthy, if you've got money upfront, I'll fly you directly from Pakistan to your Australia. If you haven't got much money, then we can travel over land, we can go via Indonesia, perhaps we can take a boat for far cheaper price. The costs of migrant smuggling can be adjusted to the depth of your pocket.

有人想偷渡，要花多少钱？当然啦，世界各地都不同。如果你在非洲，想让我带你偷偷穿过国境，只需一袋米，就能达成愿望。如果想让我把你从北京偷运到温哥华，那你得支付30美金。不过，这笔钱并不是固定的。你要是有钱，一次性付清款项，那我能让你从巴基斯坦直飞澳大利亚。你要是没啥钱，也可以选择陆路，通过印尼中转，再坐船到达目的地，价格便宜得多。偷渡费用收取多少，取决于你的钱袋有多鼓。

How do migrants raise these not in substantial amounts of money? Most migrants, indeed most people, don't have 10 or 20 thousand dollars simply in savings. Sometimes migrants turn to moneylenders. It's risky because then of course you find yourself in debt to those moneylenders. Much more often migrants turn to friends and families, and friends and families use their savings, sell property, sell land, sell jewellery, in order to provide the money for migrants to make that journey and to pay a smuggler.

那这些潜在偷渡者，是如何筹措到这笔资金的呢？大多数偷渡者，实际上大多数人，可能都无法直接掏出 1-2万美金的存款。于是，有人便去借高利贷。此举很有风险，因为你会陷入欠高利贷被追债的窘境。所以，大多数人都会求助于亲朋好友，亲戚朋友掏出积蓄，变卖土地房产，珠宝首饰，将这些钱交给偷渡者，以支付蛇头路费。

The immediate implication is this, that migrants'friends and families have a stake in the process. They have made an investment and they expect a return on that investment.

这便意味着，偷渡者的亲戚朋友，在这一过程中，产生了利害关系。他们对偷渡者进行了投资，并期望投资有所回报。

Once migrants have raised the money from their generous friends and families, how's the money exchanged and handed over to the smuggler?

一旦偷渡者从慷慨大方的亲朋好友那里筹措到足够的路费，这些钱又是如何支付给蛇头的呢？

Well ten years ago, this was very straightforward. You paid the smuggler the full amount of money upfront, "Here's $10,000. I'd like you to take me from Pakistan to the UK."The risk of course is a smuggler disappears, takes the money, and you're left in Pakistan.

十年前的交款方式，十分简单直接。在旅途开始前，一次性付清所有费用。"这是1万美金，把我从巴基斯坦带去英国吧。"但这很有风险，指不定蛇头就拿钱跑路了，而你留在巴基斯坦，哪也去不了。

The process has evolved in response to customer concerns. About five years ago, you would put a deposit down, perhaps 5,000 dollars. "Here's $5,000. When I get to the UK, I will give you the money that's owed, the further $5,000. "

后来因为客户不满，这一方式逐渐出现变化。约五年前，开始盛行预先支付订金，假设为5千美金，"这里是5千美金，等我抵达英国后，再付你剩下的5千美金。"

Here you of course were exposing yourself to a different risk and the risk is this - you arrive in the UK, you owe me 5,000 dollars, and are forced into prostitution until you pay me back the 5,000 dollars.

但这又让偷渡者陷入另一种风险。当你到达英国后，欠我5千美金还不上，于是你便被迫卖淫，直到偿清我的5千美金。

Once again the process has evolved over the years in response to customer-client concerns. And let me tell you how it works today in Pakistan.

近年来，依然因为客户不满，交款方式再次出现变化。我来讲讲，现在巴基斯坦的人蛇集团是如何运作的。

In Pakistan today, no money is exchanged between migrants and smugglers, until the migrant has arrived safely in his or her destination. The families of migrants deposit the full amount of money with a third party, often the moneylender or a trader. Once the migrant arrives in his destination, makes a call to confirm that they've arrived, the money is then released by the third party to the smuggler.

现在在巴基斯坦，偷渡者与偷运分子之间，没有直接的金钱交易。直到偷渡者安全抵达目的地后，他们的家人才会将全部费用转给第三方，通常是放债人或商贩。一旦偷渡者抵达目的地，并打电话确认他们已安全到达，这时候第三方才会把钱交给蛇头。

If you think about it, what I'm talking about here is a money back guarantee on smuggling. If you make it, I get the money, if you don't, I get no money at all. The money will be returned from the third party back to the family, because the process has failed. The money back guarantee on migrant smuggling.

细想一下，这相当于偷渡路费的退款担保。偷渡成功，蛇头收钱。偷渡失败，蛇头不收钱。第三方会将这笔费用返还给偷渡者的家人。因为偷渡失败了，这就是对移民偷运的退款保证。

Now the smuggler, while the money is being held in this escrow account, it is rather like eBay, it's being held in an escrow account by a third party, the smuggler still has to make this process work. In fact the process has got to work, otherwise he's not going to get the money being held by the third party.

当钱款被代管平台扣留保管的时候，这很像eBay运作模式，钱款会由第三方暂时扣留。蛇头会想方设法让偷渡成功。事实上，偷渡必须成功，否则偷运分子无法从第三方拿到钱。

Now we often think of smugglers as evil-minded, all-encompassing criminals, James Bond sorts of baddies, people with three nipples, stroking white cats in Bosnia and so on and so forth. The truth is a lot different from that.

当我们提到"蛇头"、"人口贩子"，总会觉得他们是万恶不赦，无恶不作，邦德那种大坏蛋。或是长着三个乳头，在波斯尼亚撸白猫之类的怪人。事实却并非如此。

Smugglers or at least the people you will make initial contact with when you want to think about a journey are often travel agents. And they'll close the doors of their office, and then perhaps do a little bit of business on the side once the office is closed, and they work with an entire network of people, someone has to provide a passport, either a forged passport or a stolen passport that's been tampered, someone has to provide a visa which is another person in the network.

所谓"蛇头"，或至少当你在考虑偷渡时首先接触联系的那群人，其实是来自旅行社。等他们歇业关店了，可能就开始做点儿地下生意。他们通常隶属于国际人口走私贩卖集团，其中有专人提供护照，要么是伪造的假护照，要么是被篡改的失窃护照。在这条人口走私链中，也有专人提供签证。

Think about the last time you took an international flight not within European Union. You had to show your passport three times. First when you checked in, secondly as you went through security, and thirdly just before you got on the airplane.

试想你上一次搭乘国际航班前往欧盟以外的国家，总共需要出示护照三次：第一次是办理登机手续，第二次是通过安检时，第三次是在你登机前。

Potentially three people who need to be bribed to make sure that the process works smoothly and you get on the aeroplane. You may also need to bribe people in transit countries if you're changing aeroplanes and also in destination countries too.

因此，至少需要买通三位工作人员，确保一切顺利进行，你才能登上前往目的地的飞机。如果要转机，你还得买通 过境中转国家的工作人员，以及目的地国家的海关官员。

And let me make this point clear. Migrant smuggling is about corruption not just in origin countries, but also in destination countries too, in Schiphol, in London Heathrow, in Paris Charles de Gaulle, as much as it is in the countries from which migrants are coming.

我想明确一点，偷运非法移民的背后，不仅是偷渡客所在国的腐败，也有目的地国家的腐败。阿姆斯特丹史基浦机场，伦敦希斯罗机场，巴黎戴高乐机场，这些国家与偷渡客的来源国同样腐败不堪。

So we have a situation where the money is being held by a third party, the smuggler needs to pay a network of people in order to make this process work. The smuggler is taking a financial risk. He is laying out money in order to make the process work, and only once the process works will he retrieve the money from the third party.

好了，现在的情况是，钱款在第三方处寄存保管，蛇头要打点人脉，贿赂买通利益链中的很多人，以确保一切顺利。他们冒着财务风险，为将来获取利润，自己先投入一些钱。只有流程一切顺利，他们最终才能从第三方处收回资金。

This means the process has to work, the smuggler cannot risk the process not working, otherwise he loses the investment he's made in the network. It means a smuggler has to use able and capable passport forgers, and visa suppliers and people that he knows can get people through airports. It also probably means that the smuggler needs to move multiple numbers of people. If I move one person and it fails, I've lost my money. If I move 10 people and one doesn't get through, at least the 9 have got through and I get some of the money back. Smugglers are incentivised to move people on mass and not as individuals.

这意味着，偷渡必须成功。蛇头难以承受偷渡失败的后果。一旦失败，他们将失去投入到关系网中所有的钱。这就意味着，蛇头所找的护照伪造者和签证供应者，以及机场的海关官员，都必须能力过硬，毫无破绽。这也意味着，蛇头通常会一次性偷运一大群人。偷运一人失败，所有钱都打了水漂。偷运十人，失败一人，至少另外九人的钱还能收得回来。为谋求利益最大化，蛇头通常偷运一大群人，而非单个个人。

Once the process has been set up, we are clear in the research, migrants move to destination countries such as ours and they almost always find work.

我们在研究过程中发现，偷渡一旦完成，这些来到目的地国家的非法移民几乎全都能找到工作。

A reality of the economies in which we all work and live, is that they're increasingly divided between a formal economy the sorts of things that I'd guess most of us work in, and an informal economy, where people are willing to work for less than the minimum wage, with no social rights where people may be exploited and discriminated against, where people are working in dangerous and difficult and dirty jobs. Even during recession there are jobs that we consider to be below us. I'd rather sit at home, watch television and take my welfare check than clean a toilet, because I consider that to be demeaning.

我们生活工作的这个经济体，如今的分化越来越严重。明面上，是我们绝大多数人生活工作的正规经济；暗地里，是非正规的地下经济。地下经济中，非法劳工的工作收入远不及最低薪资标准。他们毫无社会权利，受尽歧视与剥削。他们做着最危险，最困难，最肮脏的工作，那些即便是经济大萧条，我们连碰都不愿碰的工作。我们宁愿整天在家看电视，领着社会福利，也不愿做厕所清洁工。因为在我们眼中，这种工作太低级。

There are all sorts of jobs in our economies for which we rely on irregular migrants and people who have been smuggled to do the work. So these migrants find work. They don't just find work, but they find work that pays them enough money to begin to send home money as well.

在我们的经济中，有诸多此类工作，都得依靠无序移民和偷渡来的非法移民。这些偷渡者总能找到工作。他们不仅能找到工作，他们找到的工作，薪水还足以让他们寄钱回家。

Listen to these statistics, and a wonderful quote on this I interviewed someone in Pakistan relatively recently, and he said to me there is no better way in Pakistan today, to invest $10,000 than to pay for your son to be smuggled to the UK. There is no better way to invest that money.

请听以下数据，这是我最近采访一位巴基斯坦偷渡客的原话。他告诉我："在巴基斯坦，没有其他方式，能比花1万美金让儿子偷渡去英国，投资回报更大的。"没有其他方式能比偷渡回报更大。

On average it takes two years of money sent back for migrants to pay off the initial fee of, let's say 10,000 dollars. After that fees been paid off, the money sent back by migrants on average doubles household incomes every year.

平均来说，只需两年，就能赚回当年的偷渡成本费，比如1万美金。一旦偷渡费回本，接下来，偷渡者每年寄回老家的钱，还会翻上一倍。

Where else are you going to get a return on your investment like that?

还有什么方式能比这个回报率更大？

So this follow the money through the process, from the beginning how much it costs, to how the money is raised, to how the exchange system works, to how migrants find jobs, and to how migrants send the money back through the process to close the circle.

我们追踪了这条偷渡链的资金走向，从一开始偷渡路费的多少，到如何筹措这笔资金，再到路费怎样交到蛇头手中，偷渡者如何找工作，最后到黑工将钱寄回老家，形成了环环相扣的地下产业链。

What does this tell us about migrant smuggling? How does this business approach make it a bit more of an understandable process? I think it tells us three principal things.

这告诉了我们关于移民偷运的什么？将其视作"商业生意"，是否更易于我们理解移民偷运问题？我认为，这揭露了三大要点。

Firstly, it tells us this is a network. It's not just a relationship between a migrant and a smuggler. It involves migrants'families and friends, it involves a network of people who work with smuggler to make the process work. It involves employers in countries such as ours, it even probably involves consumers such as you and me as well.

首先，这是一条巨大的产业链。绝非只是蛇头和偷渡者之间的关系，还牵涉到偷渡者的亲戚朋友，牵涉到与蛇头展开合作的整个人口贩运集团网络。这牵涉到目的地国家的雇主，甚至可能牵涉到像你我这样的普通消费者。

Secondly, this approach tells us that, every single person in the process is deeply incentivised to make it work. Migrants have to get work, have to save money and have to send money home, because they're socially obliged to do so to their family and friends. Families and friends have put a large amount of money upfront as a stake and an investment and they would expect a return.

其次，这一模式还告诉我们，为从中获利，这条产业链上的每个人都会务必确保偷渡成功。偷渡者必须找到工作，必须攒下积蓄寄回老家，因为他们有义务回馈自己的亲友。亲戚朋友为他们的"路费"预付了一大笔钱，作为一种投资，他们当然会期待回报。

The network of people working with the migrants smugglers must make this work, otherwise next time they won't get any money out of him, and he'll turn to another person within the network. The smuggler for sure has to make it work, otherwise he won't get the money that's been deposited with a third party. Unscrupulous employers in countries such as ours take huge profit from this. They can employ people to do dirty work, pay them less than minimum wage and give them social welfare too.

那些在这条产业链上与蛇头合作的人，也必须确保偷渡成功。否则，蛇头下次不会再给他们塞钱，而是转去贿赂这条产业链中的其他人。蛇头当然也必须确保偷渡成功，否则就无法从第三方处拿回钱款。而我们国家的无良雇主，也从中牟取巨额利润。他们雇佣黑工去做肮脏粗活，付出的工资远低于最低标准，还滥用他们的社会福利。

And even you and I benefit. The reason your pizza last night cost 10 euros rather than 15 euros, is because in the kitchen someone was washing the dishes for less minimum wage. We benefit too. Across the range, if you look at this as a business, everybody is incentivised to make it work.

甚至我们普通人也从中受益。比如，你昨晚吃的比萨，之所以只花10欧，而不是15欧，都是因为那家披萨店的洗碗工，薪资低于法定标准。我们也从中受益。如果将非法移民贩运看作商业生意，牵涉其中的每个人都为牟利而必须确保成功。

I think the third implication and these are policy implications, we need to start thinking about how to disrupt the money flow if we want to stop migrant smuggling.

第三个要点，关于政策。要想打击遏制移民偷运，我们必须考虑如何截断资金流动。

Let's educate migrants and their families that this is not a gilt-edged investment, it's a risk investment that may not pay off.

首先，要对偷渡者及其家人展开教育，偷渡并非什么稳当投资，而是可能毫无回报的风险投资。

Let's try to undermine the trust system around which is escrow third party processing system has developed.

其次，针对钱款的交易方式，要打破围绕第三方机构的信任机制。

Let's try to tackle corruption, which means that people both in origin countries and destination countries are willing to take extra money in order to break the law.

还要根治腐败问题。正是由于偷渡者的来源国和目的国的腐败问题，有人愿意接收贿赂，铤而走险，违法犯罪。

Let's focus on employers who are giving migrants jobs, exploiting them and giving them the money to send back in the first place.

再次，要关注招聘黑工的雇主。这些无良雇主恣意剥削非法劳工，还给他们工资寄回家乡。

Let's look at remittance flows to understand how remittances work, and try to make sure they're directed towards constructive development orientation, rather than to negative criminality.

最后，要重视并了解汇款机制是如何运作的。监管汇款的来源与去向，确保款项流入建设性发展方向。而不是作为犯罪用途。

The bottom line is this, ladies and gentlemen, I think we can all agree that migrant smuggling is a modern-day scourge. It's clear to me that policy over the last ten years has failed lamentably, and it seems to me what we need is a fresh new approach to migrant smuggling. The bottom line is this, if you want to stop migrant smuggling, you need to reduce the bottom line.

女士们先生们，这就是关键所在。移民偷运，是破坏现代社会的一大祸害。显而易见，过去十年来的管制政策都以失败收场。我们需要的是以一种全新的方式看待并解决移民偷运。这就是关键所在，要想遏制移民偷运，就必须使其获利最小化。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

End