全球气候变化正处于最严峻时刻梅里·马达沙希：留给我们的时间不多了｜中英文对照|京都议定书|冰盖|巴黎协定|梅里·马达沙希|气候变化

导读

多年来，国际社会一直在积极探索应对气候变化的良策，虽然取得了一定的进展，但是形势依然不容乐观，且有进一步恶化的迹象。因此，国际社会应当抓住一切机会进行补救，以免为时已晚。

★文章作者：

华南理工大学公共政策研究院（IPP）兼职教授

联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）国际创意与可持续发展中心咨询委员

正文

气候变化正处于最严峻时刻

“不让任何国家掉队”是联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》（以下简称《2030年议程》）提出的一项重要承诺，即国际社会承诺将共同努力，为全人类创造一个健康、繁荣的地球，并维护地球上所有人的权利和福祉。然而，这一承诺已存在无法兑现的风险。距离实现《2030年议程》的时间框架才刚刚过半，可持续发展目标却早已偏离正轨，世界正面临前所未有的严峻考验。”

“Leave no one behind. That defining principle of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is a shared promise by every country to work together to secure the rights and well-being of everyone on a healthy, thriving planet. But halfway to 2030, that promise is in peril. The Sustainable Development Goals are disappearing in the rear-view mirror, as is the hope and rights of current and future generations. “

以上段落摘自联合国于2023年版的《实现可持续发展目标进展情况：制定拯救人类和地球的计划》。

This is how the latest report of the United Nations namely, “The Sustainable Development Goals; “Towards a Rescue Plan for People and Planet” Special edition 2023, begins.

Don’t you believe as I do that, we have crossed the red line, that we are at the edge of the cliff and our future, our children futures and our blue planet’s future is in a great danger. Are these all mean nothing? Do these alarming factors deserve more than a head shake and shoulders shrugs?

全球195个国家曾共同签署了《京都议定书》和《巴黎协定》，承诺将根据协议中设定的结束温室气体排放的最后期限，逐步削减各自的温室气体排放。

But, …..? We must wake up and see with our naked eyes all that is happening in and around us in our world today: After years of discussions and arguments to point fingers on who is more guilty and why, a few years ago over 195 countries pledged through the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They sat a deadline and pledged to save what could be saved.

尽管如此，大气中的二氧化碳含量仍在不断上升，并以惊人的速度使地球变暖。科学家警告称，倘若这种趋势持续下去，世界大部分地区将面临环境灾难。科学研究发现，气温上升将导致一系列自然灾害，夺去数十万人的生命，使数百万人流离失所。

Despite these pledges, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere kept rising and continued heating the Earth at an alarming rate ignoring the Scientists warnings that if this warming continues unabated, it could bring environmental catastrophe to much of the world, Through major scientific studies humanity was warned that the rising temperatures could cause a series of natural disasters, claim hundreds of thousands of lives and displaced millions of people.

图源：Shutterstock

遗憾的是，相关迹象和警告一直未得到重视。目前，全球河流水位已降至历史最低点，对农作物的生长造成了重大威胁。不稳定的降雨不断引发毁灭性的洪水，巴基斯坦就是一个例子。印度、尼泊尔和孟加拉国是世界上最容易受到气候变化影响的国家，近年来持续遭遇异常强烈的季风降雨和洪水，仅在2022年一年就有大约1200万人因此而流离失所。

These warnings were not heeded. As we witness today, rivers levels have reached historic lows, compromising crops, while erratic rainfall is resulting in devastating and cataclysmic floods an example of which is that of Pakistan, the fifth most populated nation on Earth and among the most vulnerable to climate change. in India, Nepal and Bangladesh, deadly floods and landslides last year forced 12 million people from their homes and an exceptionally heavy monsoon rains and intense flooding destroyed, killed, and devastated lives two years before that in the same countries.

2019年3月，气旋“伊代”在津巴布韦、马拉维和莫桑比克夺去了1000多人的生命，同时使当地数百万人陷入贫困、物资匮乏的境地。

In March 2019, Cyclone Idai took the lives of more than 1000 people across Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique in Southern Africa, and it devastated millions more who were left destitute without food or basic services.

与此同时，厄尔尼诺现象使中美洲干旱走廊经历了六年的干旱期。危地马拉、洪都拉斯、萨尔瓦多和尼加拉瓜的旱季从以往的三个月延长到六个月甚至更长时间。由于大多数作物长期歉收，致使350万以农业为生的人不得不依靠人道主义援助来维持生计。

On the other hand, an El Niño period, supercharged by the climate crisis, has taken Central America’s Dry Corridor into its 6th year of drought. Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are seeing their typical three-month dry seasons extended to six months or more. Most crops have failed, leaving 3.5 million people, many of whom rely on farming for both food and livelihood, in need of humanitarian assistance,

图源：healing water media

2020年，澳大利亚遭遇了有史以来最炎热的天气，由此引发的森林大火烧毁了1000多万公顷的土地，摧毁了3000多所房屋，使数千个家庭无家可归，导致了数百万人受到了烟霾的影响和超过10亿只动物死亡，一些物种和生态系统已经消失。

In early 2020 Australia suffered the worst-ever bushfire season – following on from its hottest year on record which had left soil and fuels exceptionally dry. The fires burned through more than 10 million hectares, razed entire communities to the ground, taken the homes of thousands of families, and left millions of people affected by a hazardous smoke haze. More than a billion native animals were killed, and some species and ecosystems were extinct probably forever.

随着海水温度的升高，非洲之角地区面临愈发严重的干旱。该地区分别在2011年、2017年和2019年发生了极其严重的旱灾，对农作物和牲畜造成的损失不计其数，埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和索马里曾有超过1500万人需要人道主义援助。

Linked also to climate change, higher sea temperatures, have doubled the likelihood of drought in the Horn of Africa region. Severe droughts in 2011, 2017 and 2019 have repeatedly wiped-out crops and livestock. Droughts have left 15 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in need of aid,

气候变化导致了北极冰盖出现近40年来最严重的融化现象，2022年是北极冰盖流失最严重的一年，有近60万平方公里的冰盖在融化。

In September 2022, the world witnessed a record melting of ice in the Arctic – affecting nearly 592,000 square kilometers of the ice sheet. According to scientists, we looked at the largest melt event to occur in nearly four decades.

格陵兰冰盖是仅次于南极洲的第二大冰盖，其融化速度的加快是近几十年来全球海平面上升的主要原因之一。一项最新的研究指出，格陵兰岛大约3.3%的冰盖（相当于110万亿吨冰）将“不可避免地融化”。2022年3月，南极洲东部内陆海拔3000米冰盖的温度比正常温度高出了38.5℃，这是地球上最极端的异常现象。如果此事发生在夏天的英国，那么伦敦的温度将达到60℃。

The ice sheet in Greenland, the second largest in the world after Antarctica, has melted so much that has caused rising the sea level. According to a study, the global warming-trigger melting of 110 trillion tones of ice from Greenland alone. In March 2022, the most extreme “heatwave” ever recorded anywhere in the world, took place over the ice dome of East Antarctica where temperatures hit 38.5C above the seasonal normal. “If London experienced an anomaly like that, the temperature would be close to 60C, (Frontier-Environmental Science) .‍

一旦格陵兰冰盖完全融化，全球海平面将至少上升27厘米，但这只是最低估值。如果考虑到碳排放、海洋热膨胀、冰盖边缘融化等因素，毫不夸张的说，未来全球海平面的上升幅度可能会达到几米。

This will result in a minimum sea level increase of 27 centimeters (10.6 inches). A sea level increase of several meters seems likely due to ongoing carbon emissions, other ice caps melting, and ocean thermal expansion.

斯韦茨冰川图源：NASA

此外，喜马拉雅山和阿尔卑斯山的冰川已经失去了三分之一至一半的冰，南极西部的冰盖融化程度已经超过了临界点。此外，格陵兰冰盖的大范围融化将对亚马逊雨林和全球气候产生长期影响，甚至可能会阻碍墨西哥湾的海流。

Furthermore, mountain glaciers in the Himalayas and the Alps are already on track to lose one-third and half of their ice, respectively, and experts believe that the west Antarctic ice sheet has already passed the tipping point at which significant losses are unavoidable and the consequences irreversible. Beyond sea level rise, the extensive melting of the Greenland ice sheet would have long-term effects on the Amazon rainforest and weather patterns, as changes in sea water could stop the Gulf Stream Ocean movement.

最新的气候变化报告显示，北极变暖的速度是地球其他地区的四倍，这将在未来引发全球性的气候灾难，例如热浪、旱灾、风灾、洪灾等。

Climate change is warming Northern regions nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet. This, scientists warn, will trigger catastrophic weather events worldwide, from heatwaves and droughts to storms and floods.

今年夏天，中国、欧洲以及美国西南和中部地区均经历了前所未有的热浪。意大利、西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊和法国均出现了破纪录的高温现象。匈牙利和意大利的某些地区曾一度达到了38℃，德国最高的气温甚至达到了40℃。

This summer, China, Europe as well as south-west and central US states witnessed dangerous and often unprecedented heatwaves. Europe’s heatwave brought record-high temperatures in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and France. Hungary and Italy have been blasted by high temperatures of around 100 F (almost 38C) in certain locations, while Germany had its hottest day of the year with temperatures reaching 104.5 F

大部分欧洲河流，尤其是意大利的波河和德国的莱茵河，已经干涸，对农业、贸易和水电供应造成了毁灭性的打击。墨西哥湾沿岸地区笼罩在令人窒息的热浪下，这与墨西哥湾水温的急剧攀升有关。随着飓风季节高峰期的临近，墨西哥湾水温过高的情况将愈发严重。

European rivers including Po in Italy and Rhine in Germany have dried up, with devastating consequences on agriculture, trade, and hydropower supplies. An unprecedented run of record heat and humidity is suffocating population centers along the Gulf Coast, tied to water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that have climbed to the highest levels ever observed. The extra-hot waters are of particular concern with the approach of the peak weeks of hurricane season.

图源：联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF)

今年，热浪席卷了中国大部分地区，数十个城市连续几天的气温超过了40℃。截至2023年7月，中国发布了108个高温红色预警。四川多地最高温度甚至超过了40℃。长江的水位创历史新低，严重影响着周边地区的贸易和水电供应。

In China, a heatwave brought scorching temperatures across large parts of the country, with dozens of cities recording temperatures over 40C (104F) for several days straight. For the first time in nine years, the government issued a national drought alert while local authorities in Sichuan ordered power cuts to homes, businesses, and factories amid persistent blackouts. Water levels in the Yangtze river – the third-largest in the world flowing about 6,300 kilometres (3,900 miles) through China– reached dangerous lows, affecting trade, limiting drinking water supplies, and causing rolling blackouts.

即使是发达国家，近年也受到了极端天气的蹂躏。加拿大、葡萄牙和美国的夏威夷均受到了火灾的袭击。大量降雨导致美国、瑞典和德国洪水泛滥。北极冰盖的迅速融化、非洲和欧洲的大面积干旱、亚洲和南美洲的龙卷风，以及北欧的冰雹均是自然对人类的警告，这表明应对气候变化已到了刻不容缓的地步。

Extreme weather disasters affect all countries, rich and poor. Wildfires have forced tens of thousands of people to flee from their homes as of today, fires are still burning in Canada, Hawaii and Portugal, floods in China, Sweden, Germany and North America devastating lives and properties, rapid melting ice in the arctics cause rise in sea levels, while drought in most part of Africa and Europe and the hurricane and cyclones in Asia and America and hail snow in Northern Europe, and more catastrophic events in and around us send strong warning thatwe have crossed the red line beyond no points of return.

图源：CNN

地球正以前所未有的速度失去生物多样性，地球上20%的物种濒临灭绝。预计到21世纪末，这一比例将上升至50%。此外，亚马逊雨林的滥伐将可能导致该地区的降雨量到2050年减少8%，这可能会破坏整个地球的大气循环系统。

The Earth is rapidly and massively losing its biodiversity. 20% of all species on Earth are facing extinction. Scientists estimate that this will rise to 50 per cent by the end of the century unless urgent action is taken. In addition, the current rate of deforestation in the Amazon basin could lead to an 8% decline in rainfall in the region by 2050, triggering a transition to a "savannah state," which in turn would have broader implications for the planet's atmospheric circulation system.

If these are not the cry of nature for help, then what else can serve as warnings that climate change disasters are upon us and we must act now to save what is left out of our blue planet.

应对措施尚且不足

在全球能源短缺问题日益严重、缺乏可持续、可替代能源技术的情况下，化石燃料再次成为主流能源，造成了二氧化碳排放量的大幅增长。今天，全球每创造100万美元的经济价值就会产生约500吨的二氧化碳。过去，全球每创造880亿美元的经济价值才会产生约400亿吨的二氧化碳。

Despite all, carbon dioxide emissions are increasing due to anxiety about conserving and storing energy. In the absence of many sustainable alternative energy resources schemes, fossil fuels are once again seen as a convenient means of product and energy consumption. In recent years, for every $1 millions of global GDP in the world, about 500 tons of carbon dioxide are being emitted. In 2019, every $88 billions of world GDP produced close to 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide.

根据最新的国际能源署旗舰报告，能源消耗产生的二氧化碳排放量在2021年上升了6%，达到363亿吨，是有史以来的最高水平，其原因是许多国家依赖煤炭来推动经济从新冠疫情中复苏。

Global energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 6% to 36.3 billion tones in 2021,the highest level on record, as the world economy rebounded strongly from the Coronavirus pneumonia crisis and relied heavily on coal to drive this growth(IEA flagship report, March 2022).

为了预防和减轻气候变化引起的灾害，国际社会在联合国的支持下开展了一系列举措，例如《联合国气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）、《巴黎协定》和《京都议定书》。

To tackle global disasters on the rise, Governments and private sectors under the auspicious of the United Nations and pressures for the science community, agreed to launch a number of initiatives to mitigate the upcoming calamities. Among major efforts mentions should be made of international climate change laws in the Paris Agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that was1ratified in 1992 by 197 countries. (Including the United States).

其中，《公约》具有里程碑的意义，是首个国际社会应对气候变化的合作机制，旨在稳定大气中温室气体浓度。《公约》缔约方每年召开一次会议，以监督该公约的实施情况。在《公约》的基础上，《公约》缔约方制定并通过了《京都议定书》和《巴黎协定》，两者均为落实《公约》的重要法律文件。

UNFCCC as a landmark accord was the first global treaty to explicitly address climate change.It established an annual forum, known as the Conference of the Parties, or COP, for international discussions aimed at stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. These meetings produced the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

第15至25届《公约》缔约方会议均取得了进展。然而，在第26届《公约》缔约方会议上，各国代表在如何补偿受气候变化影响的国家存在分歧，且未能就全球碳市场的规则达成共识。由于各国代表就应对气候变化问题未能做进一步的承诺，故联合国秘书长古特雷斯（António Guterres）表示，此次会议是一次失败的会议。

While COP 15-25 each made a small progress, the rapid decline in progress took place during COP26 in relation to major climate issues - despite a year of dire warnings from scientists. Negotiators were unable to finalize rules for a global carbon market, and they disagreed over whether to compensate developing countries devastated by effects of climate change. As a result, the final declaration of the Conference did not explicitly call on countries to increase their climate pledges. The UN Secretary-General Guterres describes the talks as “a lost opportunity”.

第27届《公约》缔约方会议虽然确定了补偿贫穷国家因气候变化造成的损失，但未能促成各国代表承诺逐步减少化石燃料的使用，以及二氧化碳排放在2025年之前达到峰值。联合国秘书长古特雷斯表示，继续使用化石燃料会使情况变得愈发复杂。

COP 27 in Egypt although established compensation for the poor countries but stopped short of committing the participants to phasing down use of all fossil fuels.In addition, reaching peak emissions by 2025 (as agreed in many communiques before) quite unfortunately, was removed from the final statement.The UN secretary- General, Guterres stated that continuing to use fossil fuels means “double trouble” for the planet.

2020年，全球温室气体浓度达到了新高，导致全球气温进一步上升。2021年，全球气温比工业革命时期前高出了约1.1℃，2015年至2021年是有气象记录以来最热的7年。

In 2020, concentrations of global greenhouse gases reached new highs. As these concentrations rise, so does the Earth’s temperature. In 2021, the global temperature was about 1.1°C above the pre-industrial level and the years from 2015 to 2021 were the seven warmest on record.

这意味着在未来30年或更长的时间里，全球将面临比以往更严重的地震、热浪、旱灾和洪灾。地球的气候会因二氧化碳及其他热诱导气体的排放而迅速恶化。

What will all this mean? Over the next 30 years or more, more intense earthquakes, heatwaves, more devastating droughts, and more torrential rains worldwide, can lead to widespread destruction and flooding across continents, and the Earth's climate is and will be changing rapidly due to emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-inducing gases, the source of which is indisputably pointing to humans.

如何补救

在气候变化日益加剧的背景下，当前应对气候变化的合作机制完全不足以有效应对气候变化带来的威胁。

We must emphasize that with climate cataclysm looming, the pace and scale of current climate action plans are wholly insufficient to effectively tackle climate change.

基于全人类的共同利益，国际社会迫切需要在气候变化和公共卫生议题上有所作为。这未必需要大量资源的投入，但必定需要国际社会消除分歧、共同努力。

Based on common standards and interests which is a simple human survival, there is now a major and desperate need to establish an international focus capable of implementing climate and health-related mitigation standards.While this may not require significant development resources, but it certainly need joint efforts of all stakeholders.

英国著名经济学家斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）在2006年就指出，应对气候变化每年将消耗全球经济的1%，而对气候变化无所作为每年将消耗全球经济的5至20%。与投资低碳经济相比，投资应对气候变化显然能够带来更大的净收益。

The Stern Review in 2006, suggested that managing global warming would cost 1% of global GDP every year, while inaction could cost at least 5% and up to 20% of global GDP in a worst-case scenario. Thus,only a small part of total global GDP would be required for investment in a low-carbon economy, while fighting climate change would, in return, entail much greater net benefits.

国际社会应当把这一信息作为制定国家政策的重要考量。当前正值全球权力结构变化的关键时刻，国际社会在应对气候变化方面更要采取紧急、重大措施。除围绕应对气候变化制定计划和做出承诺外，国际社会还应当从根本上改变全球经济和政治结构，并以坚定的政治意愿及现有的技术和资源，推动社会进步，为人类创造更美好、更光明的未来。

This simplified but blunt message should be injected into all global intertwined plannings be it, of economic, technological, information, human security and/or military natures. This is no longer a turning point, even though such change in the current global power structure require urgent and transformative action. Such decisions are crucial and must go beyond mere plans and promises. It requires raising ambitions with a fundamental change in the overall structure of the world economic and political order. Through strong political will and the utilization of available technologies, resources, and knowledge, the global community can reignite progress and create a brighter future for all.

因此，国际社会必须立即行动，避免气候变化引发的灾难性后果，毕竟留给我们的时间真的不多了！

Time is running out, and immediate measures are necessary to avoid catastrophic consequences and secure a sustainable future for generations to come.

★本文编译：

曾辉，华南理工大学公共政策研究院研究助理

IPP-Review

编辑 | 　Aleutian，周浩锴

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