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EC预报数据在中国近海的适用性研究

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作者：林晓娟1 2 李响1 2 刘晓燕1 祖子清1 2 王延强1

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P732.1

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第六期（51-66）

摘要：欧洲中期天气预报中心（简称EC）的10 m风场数据在沿海有较高的参考性和使用频率，但尚未有研究系统地针对不同海域对该数据进行评估。本文利用EC预报的10 m风场数据，与中国近海22个浮标的10 m风场结果进行对比，检验EC 10 m风场预报性能，并挑选3个经过浮标点位的台风和两次典型的冷空气大风过程，检验其在台风和冷空气过程下的预报性能。结果表明：EC预报数据与浮标实测风速的相关性总体较好。在风力小于4级时，EC 10 m风速预报数据偏大，在风力大于4级时，预报数据偏小，在风力等级为3~5级时，预报数据较为准确。在不同风向条件下，EC预报10 m风向的平均误差大部分在0°~20°。风力等级越小，风向预报偏差越大，反之预报偏差越小。EC预报数据对于台风引起的风向变化有较好的反应，且风速较低时，风速预报数据表现较好，而对于台风最大风速值的预报则存在较大误差。EC预报结果能较好地反映两次冷空气过程引起的风向变化。风速越小，EC预报的误差也越小，随着风力等级的增大，预报误差明显增大。EC对大风的风速预报偏小，误差偏大。

关键词：中国近海 EC预报10 m风场数据海上大风误差分析

Abstract：The 10 m wind field data provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(EC) has a high significance for reference and is frequently used in the coastal areas, but there is no systematic assess to the data quality in different coastal areas. This paper uses the 10 m wind observations collected by 22buoys in China's offshore waters to evaluate the EC 10 m wind forecasts, including three typhoons and two typical cold air processes recorded by buoys. The results show that:The correlation between the EC wind forecasts and the measured wind speed is generally good. EC forecasts larger 10 m wind speed when the wind level is lower than 4, and EC forecasts smaller 10 m wind speed when the wind level is higher than 4, while when the wind level is 3~5, EC forecasts relative accurate 10 m wind speed. Mean error of 10 m wind direction forecasts is between 0°~20°. Error of wind direction forecasts is larger when the wind level is lower,and visa versa. EC 10 m wind forecasts have a good response to the wind direction change caused by typhoons,and the wind speed forecasts perform well when the wind speed is low, however, there is a large error in the maximum wind speed forecasts. EC 10 m wind forecasts can correctly predict the wind direction change caused by the two cold air processes. The smaller the wind speed, the smaller the error in the EC forecasts. Along with the increase of wind level, the forecast error increases significantly. EC wind speed forecasts are small when actual wind speed is large, so the error is also large.

Key words：China's offshore waters; EC 10 m wind forecasts; strong wind; error analysis