美国盟友遍天下,为何中国只有一个军事同盟国,并且坚持不结盟?可以说中国在近代历史中遭受了太多的苦难和挫折,深刻认识到结盟的局限性。中国需要的是和平、稳定和繁荣,而不是战争和动荡。因此,中国不愿意与其他国家结盟,以避免卷入不必要的冲突和战争。老外可能不懂,在Quora论坛里,美国网友提问说:为什么中国明明没有盟友,却显得如此强大?

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Firstly, do not be fooled by the rumors circulating about all countries partnering with China as an enemy.

首先,不要被那些流传的关于所有国家合伙与中国为敌的消息所愚弄。

This is completely wrong, there is no such alliance.

这完全是错误的,并不存在这样的联盟。

China is not isolated.

中国并不孤立。

China has great prestige in 24 African countries, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, and has very close friendships with Russia and Iran. China can use these relationships at any time to safeguard its national interests.

中国在24个非洲国家、斯里兰卡、巴基斯坦非常有威信,并且与俄罗斯和伊朗有着非常密切的友谊,中国可以在任何时候利用这些关系维护自己的国家利益。

China has significant trade and commercial influence in almost every country. Since 2019, Deutsche Bank has had more business dealings with China than with the United States. Banks, manufacturers, and consumer goods industries all rely on China's imports of manufactured goods, as well as the Chinese market for consumption and exports.

中国在几乎每个国家都有很大的贸易和商业影响力。自2019年以来,德意志银行与中国的业务往来比与美国的还多。银行、制造商、消费品行业都依赖中国的制成品进口,也依赖中国市场进行消费和出口。

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So naturally, big business owners and wealthy people, who provide funding for elections and can determine the fate of elected governments, naturally lean towards China.

所以,自然而然地,大企业主、有钱人,也就是那些为选举提供资金并能决定民选政府命运的人自然而然的亲中。

Therefore, politicians can arrogantly curse, but they cannot take any action against China because it will have a stronger backlash on their own country.

因此,政客们可以趾高气扬地叫骂,但他们不能对中国采取任何行动,因为这将给他们自己的国家带来更强烈的反作用。

For example, India has recently banned TIKTOK and many Chinese applications, but the impact on China is minimal, with only relevant companies affected.

举个简单的例子——印度最近禁止了TIKTOK和许多中国应用程序,但这对中国的影响微乎其微,只有相关公司受到了影响。

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Assuming as retaliation, China stops exporting pharmaceutical raw materials to India. We need six years to find such a large number of alternatives. Depending on the type of medication, the cost will increase by 240% to 700%. A pill with a cost of 35 rupees will now cost 145 rupees, and there will be a large-scale supply shortage when inventory runs out by 2023. There will be large-scale protests, which may even trigger social unrest and bring chaos to us.

假设作为报复,中国停止向印度出口制药原料。我们需要六年时间才能找到如此大量的替代品。根据药品的不同,成本将上涨240%至700%。一片成本为35卢比的药片现在将花费145卢比,到2023年库存耗尽时,将出现大规模的供应短缺。将会有大规模的抗议,甚至可能引发社会动荡,给我们带来混乱。

The same applies to the United States.

对美国来说也是一样。

After the COVID-19 crisis from 2019 to 2020, China reduced the supply of insulin raw materials for diabetes to ensure adequate supply for its own people. Trump quickly subsidized the additional cost of importing insulin raw materials from other countries, which cost the US federal government $38 billion between May 2020 and February 2021 to keep prices unchanged.

2019至2020年新冠疫情危机后,中国减少了糖尿病胰岛素原料的供应,以确保自己的人民有足够的供应。特朗普迅速补贴从其他国家进口胰岛素原料的额外成本,在2020年5月至2021年2月期间,这让美国联邦政府花费了380亿美元以保持价格不变。

Biden reduced this subsidy, resulting in an increase in insulin prices. Biden plans to restore raw material supply to China, and he successfully restored business to its original scale in June 2021.

拜登削减了这项补贴,导致胰岛素价格上涨。拜登计划让中国恢复原料供应,并且他在2021年6月成功地让业务恢复到原来的规模。

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Sadly, no country can influence China in the same way.

可悲的是,没有哪个国家能以同样的方式影响中国。

This is because when the world is asleep, or leaders like Bush and Obama (USA), Blair (UK), Schroeder and Merkel (Germany), and Manmohan Singh (India) are not aware of their increasing dependence on China.

这是因为当世界在沉睡,或者像布什和奥巴马(美国)、布莱尔(英国)、施罗德和默克尔(德国)、曼莫汉·辛格(印度)这样的领导人没有意识到他们对中国的依赖程度在不断增加。

Now, it's too late.

如今,为时已晚。

China knows this.

中国知道这一点。

So, unless you have alternative solutions, China can easily influence many countries.

所以,除非你有替代方案,否则中国可以很容易地影响很多国家。

If you push him to the corner and they are really angry and decide to use one of their many 'nuclear options', the West will quickly back down without hesitation.

如果你们把他逼到墙角他们真的生气并决定使用他们众多的“核选项”之一,西方将毫不犹豫地迅速退缩。

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To be frank, I don't really care about the West myself.

坦率地说,我自己并不太关心西方。

However, I do hope that India can be in the same position as China is today. If we had followed that principle in 1991- establishing manufacturing bases on 14 uninhabited islands in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, focusing on manufacturing, we might have been in a much stronger and more influential position than we are now.

然而,我确实希望我们印度能处于中国今天所处的位置。如果我们在1991年遵循那个原则——在阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的14个无人居住的岛屿上建立制造基地,专注于制造业,我们可能会处于比现在强大得多和有影响力得多的地位。

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According to Chinese economists. Here are the observations they made during the Cold War. In order to gain those so-called allies, the United States provided a large amount of aid to Western Europe, known as the Marshall Plan.

根据中国经济学家的说法。以下是他们在冷战期间所观察到的情况。为了获得那些所谓的盟友,美国向西欧提供了大量援助,即马歇尔计划。

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马歇尔

In order to compete with the United States, the Soviet Union provided similar things to Eastern Europe, but the effect was only half that of the United States. In the Soviet camp, Eastern European countries were not happy because they received less aid and were poorer than their neighboring countries. Russia itself is also unhappy because it continues to provide aid and cheap oil, leading to huge domestic debts. Finally, their people could not bear it, so the Soviet Union disintegrated. The only ones who were happy at that time were Vietnam, North Korea, and perhaps India.

为了与美国竞争,苏联向东欧提供了类似的东西,但效果只有美国的一半。在苏联阵营中,东欧国家并不高兴,因为他们得到的援助更少,比他们的邻国更穷。俄罗斯自己也不高兴,因为它不断提供援助和廉价石油,导致了巨额内债。最后,他们的人民无法忍受,于是苏联解体了。当时唯一高兴的是越南、朝鲜,也许还有印度。

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The situation in the United States is also not good, as they have lost all their traditional industries to Japan and Western Europe. If it weren't for their invention of new industries, the United States would have lost to Japan and Europe in the 1990s and finished. So don't say it's China stealing American job opportunities anymore, the United States lost those jobs a long time ago. The Cold War was a deathly race, and the United States still suffers greatly from it to this day.

美国的处境也不好,他们把所有的传统产业都输给了日本和西欧。如果不是他们发明了新产业,美国在 90 年代就会输给日本和欧洲而完蛋。所以不要再说是中国偷走了美国的工作机会,美国很久以前就失去了那些工作。冷战是一场死亡竞赛,美国至今仍深受其害。

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What is China's conclusion? Only inclusive and naturally developing trade relations can benefit both parties. In other words, China will not spend money to buy allies. So, how can China cope with the huge alliance structure of the United States? Let me take Australia as an example, the annual trade between China and Australia reaches almost 350 billion US dollars. In order for Australia to fully (not just verbally) stand with the United States against China, the United States will have to compensate for their losses.

中国的结论是什么呢?只有包容性的自然发展的贸易关系才能使双方受益。换句话说,中国不会花钱买盟友,那么,中国如何应对美国庞大的联盟结构呢?让我以澳大利亚为例,中澳贸易每年几乎达到 3500 亿美元。为了让澳大利亚完全(不仅仅是口头上)站在美国一边反对中国,美国将不得不补偿他们的损失。

So, China not only benefits from trade with Australia, but also increases the cost for the United States to maintain its alliance structure. That's why you see that the United States can only afford countries like the Philippines to confront China. China will not pay any country to stand on its side politically and militarily, and it hopes that the United States will pay more to maintain its alliance.

所以,中国不仅从与澳大利亚的贸易中受益,还增加了美国维持其联盟结构的成本。这就是为什么你看到美国只能负担得起像菲律宾这样的国家来对抗中国。中国不会付钱给任何国家在政治和军事上站在它一边,它希望美国为维持其联盟付出更多代价。

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If you are referring to military allies, China actually does not need them. Firstly, China has developed a massive modern military force, so it is fully capable of defending itself. Who would be crazy enough to attack a major nuclear power like China?

如果你指的是军事盟友,中国实际上并不需要。首先,中国已经发展出了庞大的现代化军事力量,所以它完全有能力保卫自己。谁会疯狂到去攻击中国这样一个主要核大国呢?

Secondly, unlike the Americans, China has no interest in military adventurism. She will never invade other countries in order to export political ideologies (such as freedom and democracy) or interfere with how a country handles its domestic affairs. China will never act as the world's police.

其次,与美国人不同,中国对军事冒险主义毫无兴趣。她永远不会为了输出政治意识形态(如自由和民主)或干涉一个国家如何处理其国内事务而入侵其他国家。中国永远不会充当世界警察。

So, why does China need military allies???

所以,中国为什么需要军事盟友呢???

However, China does have many economic allies. For example, 140 countries have signed the the Belt and Road Initiative. China has economic alliances with countries that have become prosperous through trade and commercial exchanges with China.

然而,中国确实有很多经济盟友,例如,有140个国家签署了“一带一路”倡议。中国与那些通过与中国进行贸易和商业往来而变得富裕的国家有经济盟友关系。

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Recently, China signed a large-scale investment agreement with the European Union. China has also signed a 25 year cooperation agreement with Iran.

最近,中国与欧盟签署了一项大规模投资协议。中国还与伊朗签署了一项为期25年的合作协议。

China leads the world's largest free trade area, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Two countries in the 'Five Eyes Alliance', Australia and New Zealand, have even joined! The two most steadfast allies of the United States, Japan and South Korea, have also joined!

中国领导着世界上最大的自由贸易区,即区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)。“五眼联盟”中的两个国家,澳大利亚和新西兰甚至也加入了!美国最坚定的两个盟友,日本和韩国也加入了!

So, China is not "isolated" in this game. Actually, she is very, very powerful.

所以,中国在这场游戏中并不“孤立”。实际上,她非常非常强大。

I think when it comes to allies, people usually refer to the allies of the United States in confronting Russia, such as NATO, which is fighting against a common enemy, first the Soviet Union and now Russia. It is mainly a military alliance with almost no economic factors. Now NATO is trying to expand its coverage to the periphery of China, as part of the US geopolitical initiative. Perhaps its name should be changed to 'Atlantic China Sea Treaty Organization' (ACTO). I rarely see the United States using the term 'ally' to describe Japan and South Korea, even though we have seen Biden trying to form an anti China alliance these days. The United States has formed the Quad Security Dialogue, the Five Eyes Alliance, and various organizations initially established to confront certain countries.

我认为说到盟友,人们通常指的是美国在对抗俄罗斯方面的盟友,例如北约,它是为了对抗一个共同的敌人,先是苏联,现在是俄罗斯。它主要是一个军事联盟,几乎没有经济因素。现在北约正试图将其覆盖范围扩大到中国周边,这是美国地缘政治举措的一部分。也许它的名字应该改为“大西洋—中国海条约组织”(ACTO)。我很少看到美国用“盟友”这个词来形容日本、韩国,尽管这些天我们看到拜登试图组建反华联盟。美国组建了四方安全对话、五眼联盟以及各种最初为了对抗某些国家而成立的组织。

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China does not form alliances, it has different levels of relationships with other countries, ranging from comprehensive strategic partnerships to major power relations. I believe that by forming allies, you must create an enemy, and your allies agree that this enemy is their enemy. China does not classify any country as an enemy like the United States. Even during the trade war and technology war, China did not classify the United States as a hostile relationship. Is it important not to have allies? The example of China shows that this is not important. A country, like a person, hopes to develop relations with another country that is just, fair, just, cooperative, and does not exploit or oppress others, and China's foreign policy precisely covers these.

中国不组建盟友关系,它与其他国家有不同层次的关系,从全面战略合作伙伴到大国关系。我认为通过组建盟友,你必须创造一个敌人,而你的盟友也同意这个敌人是他们的敌人。中国不像美国那样将任何国家归类为敌人。即使在贸易战、科技战时期,中国也没有将美国归类为敌对关系。没有盟友重要吗?中国的例子表明这并不重要。国家就像人一样,希望与另一个正义、公平、公正、合作、不利用他人或压迫他人的国家发展关系,而中国的外交政策恰恰涵盖了这些。

I don't think American allies have much benefit. Many countries have to succumb to American pressure, which harms the interests of their allies. For example, the United States has put pressure on the United Kingdom and many other countries to comply with American orders to ban Huawei, resulting in economic and financial losses for these countries. The armies of countries such as Britain and Germany had to join the US war in Iraq, and the US later confirmed that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction, but British soldiers sacrificed their lives.

我觉得美国的盟友没什么好处,很多国家不得不屈从于美国的压力,损害了盟友国家的利益。例如:美国向英国和许多其他国家施压,要求他们听从美国的命令禁止华为,导致这些国家在经济和财政上遭受损失。英国、德国等国家的军队不得不加入美国在伊拉克的战争,而美国后来证实伊拉克没有大规模杀伤性武器,但英国士兵却牺牲了。

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Other examples include the Vietnam War and the hijacking of COVID-19's personal protective equipment, which forced South Korea to deploy the "Thad" system, causing South Korea to suffer losses after China retaliated. The flaws in the US alliance are evident - I call it a 'toxic alliance'. What's the use of that? Have you been fooled by the United States? Is this what a sovereign state should do?

其他例子还有越南战争、劫持新冠个人防护设备,韩国不得不部署“萨德”系统,导致韩国在中国报复后遭受损失。美国盟友关系的缺陷很明显——我将其称为“有毒的盟友关系”。那有什么用呢?被美国愚弄吗?这是一个主权国家应该做的吗?

During the Cold War, China first formed an alliance with the Soviet Union. And then this alliance broke down. At this time, both camps of the Cold War became enemies of China. At this time, the Chinese people seriously consider the world situation.

在冷战期间,中国先是与苏联结盟。然后这一联盟破裂。此时,冷战的两个阵营都成为了中国的敌人。在这个时候,中国人民认真思考世界局势。

The United States and its allies are imperialist demons, while the Soviet Union and its allies are revisionist demons. How should China choose? China has decided to be independent and autonomous.

美国及其盟友是帝国主义恶魔,而苏联及其盟友是修正主义恶魔。中国应该如何选择?中国决定独立自主。

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China believes that there are three worlds on Earth and considers itself a third world country. China's positioning of itself has never changed. China has decided to always stand with third world countries. They are friends of China. Both the West and the Soviet Union are untrustworthy. This principle has continued to this day. If you read any statements from China, China always insists that it is a third world country. If China does not step forward, who will care about our friends in the third world? The reason why China is strong is because of its long-standing beliefs. We have dreams, we stick to our bottom line, and we never give in.

中国认为地球上有三个世界,中国将自己视为第三世界国家。中国对自身的定位从未改变。中国决定永远与第三世界国家站在一起。他们是中国的朋友。西方和苏联都是不可信任的。这一宗旨一直延续至今。如果你阅读中国的任何声明,中国始终坚持自己是第三世界国家。如果中国不挺身而出,那么谁来关心第三世界的朋友们呢?中国之所以强大,是因为其长久以来的信念。我们有梦想,我们坚守底线,我们永不屈服。

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China has conducted in-depth cooperation with a large number of third world countries. Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and China have many friends. We don't need allies or enemies. China wants peace and cooperation, not conflict.

中国与大量第三世界国家进行了深入合作。非洲、中东、东南亚、拉丁美洲与中国有很多朋友。我们不需要盟友和敌人。中国想要和平与合作,而不是冲突。