“西红柿身价暴涨”“鸡蛋都快配不上西红柿了”……近段时间，全国多地西红柿价格明显上涨，引发市民热议。
本月初，北京部分超市和电商平台的西红柿价格直逼10元一斤。网友调侃：“食堂的番茄炒蛋只剩鸡蛋了。”
Earlier this month, prices in some supermarkets and online platforms in Beijing were approaching 20 yuan ($2.87) per kilogram. "Tomato and scrambled eggs — a classic Chinese homestyle dish — is now made in our canteen with plenty of eggs and few tomatoes," an internet user commented on the social media platform.
农业农村部信息中心数据显示，2026年1月1日至16日，西红柿平均批发价格为每公斤8.61元，较2025年1月的每公斤4.76元同比上涨80.9%。
Latest official data shows that the average wholesale price of tomatoes from Jan 1 to 16 was 8.61 yuan per kilogram, seeing a year-on-year increase of 80.9 percent compared to the price of 4.76 yuan per kg in January 2025.
农业农村部农产品市场分析预警团队蔬菜首席分析师张晶表示，涨价的主要原因是前期不利天气的影响，病虫害偏重。阴雨导致座果率低，后续造成应季上市偏紧，产区转换衔接不畅。
Experts said the recent surge in tomato prices in China was mainly due to the impact of unfavorable weather earlier in the season and tight supplies during the peak marketing period.
“不过，西红柿价格运行有较强的季节性，预计高价不会长时间持续，近期价格已经有所回落。”张晶说。
However, prices have started to ease slightly in mid-January and are likely to see a seasonal decline after the Spring Festival holiday, said Zhang Jing, a vegetable market analyst with the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs' agricultural product monitoring team.
这一波西红柿价格上涨从去年下半年就初见端倪。2025年上半年，在上一年度良好收益影响下，农户普遍扩种西红柿，市场供应充沛导致彼时西红柿地头收购价大幅下跌。上半年低迷的行情损伤了农户种植西红柿等蔬菜的积极性，部分农户缩减了种植面积。
Tomato prices have remained elevated for some time. Favorable weather in early 2025 boosted output, seeing wholesale prices fall to 3.59 yuan per kg, hurting farmers' income expectations and leading many to cut back on autumn plantings.
2025年秋季，我国蔬菜主产区降水偏多，秋茬西红柿在关键的定植初期遭遇连续降雨，导致部分产区秧苗受淹、根系受损，影响了后期的产量和品质。紧接着，10月中旬，一股较强冷空气影响中东部大部地区，气温骤降，使得西红柿的生长进程延缓，上市时间普遍推迟。
While adverse weather later in the autumn of 2025 directly impacted production and market supply. Excessive rainfall in major vegetable-producing regions in autumn damaged seedlings during the critical transplanting stage, affecting yields and quality.
A strong cold air outbreak in mid-October further slowed tomato growth and delayed market arrivals.
季节性生产转换，也推高了生产成本与流通费用。随着冬季来临，北方露地生产结束，蔬菜供应主要转向成本更高的设施大棚和“南菜北运”模式，张晶表示。“北方设施农业的保温成本和跨区域流通的防冻成本依然高企，对价格形成刚性支撑。”张晶说。
Additionally, as northern open-field production ends in winter, the current tomato market is dominated by greenhouse-grown produce from northern regions such as Shandong province and produce transported from southern provinces, raising the seasonal costs.
“从目前情况看，西红柿产能没有下降，供应是有保障的，而且近期随着云南、四川等多产区上市，缓解了供应压力，价格已经有所回落。”张晶表示。
"Tomato production capacity has not declined and supply is secure," Zhang said. The recent market entry of produce from multiple production areas such as Yunnan and Sichuan has alleviated supply pressures, leading to a noticeable price decline already.
记者： 赵伊梦
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