贵金属实际上是一个在定价过程中价值持续扩张，但终值为零的标的资产...
Gold is the cleanest way to bet against your own civilization.
黄金是对自身文明最明确的看空押注
And yes, I am long.
没错 我正持有黄金多头仓位
That is the part that makes me sick.
而这正是让我深感不安之处
Because the trade works by pretending you want the world to fail.
因为这笔交易成立的前提，是假装你希望世界变糟糕
Gold and silver are not productive assets.
黄金和白银并非生产性资产。
No cash flows. No innovation. No compounding.
没有现金流。没有创新。没有复利效应。
Just a story.
仅仅是一个故事。
A story that gets more valuable the more people feel unsafe.
当越多的人感到不安全时，这个故事的价值就越高。
So every uptick is a tax on collective confidence.
所以每一次上涨都是对集体信心的征税。
Every rally is a vote against the future.
每一次反弹都是对未来投出的反对票。
Here is the uncomfortable truth.
这就是令人不安的真相。
Gold is not a hedge against inflation.
黄金并非对冲通胀的工具。
It is a hedge against trust.
它是对冲信任的工具。
Trust in governments
对政府的信任
Trust in institutions
对机构的信任
Trust in your neighbors
对身边人的信任
Trust in tomorrow
对明天的信任
When do you actually need gold as money.
你什么时候真正需要黄金作为货币？
Only when the system collapses.
只有一种情况：体系崩塌
And in a collapse, gold does not save you.
但在崩塌里，金银并不能拯救你。
It paints a target on your back.
它只会让你成为众矢之的。
Most people cannot defend their own home.
大多数人连自己的家都守不住。
What makes you think you can defend a bar of metal.
你又凭什么认为自己能守住一块金属呢。
If the world collapses, your gold becomes a liability.
如果世界崩溃，你的黄金将成为负担。
If the world does not collapse, your gold is pure speculation.
如果世界未崩溃，你的黄金则纯粹是投机。
Either way, it is a trade built on fear.
无论哪种情况，这都是建立在恐惧之上的交易。
That is why it prints.
而这也正是它为何能不断上涨的原因。
Fear is liquid. Fear is scalable. Fear sells.
恐惧有流动性，恐惧能规模化，而恐惧也是最好卖的东西。
Gold is the only asset where profit feels like betrayal.
黄金是唯一一种让利润像背叛的资产。
You win by rooting for scarcity. For disorder. For panic.
你通过押注稀缺、押注失序，押注恐慌获胜。
Going long gold is going long the idea that nothing else is safe.
做多黄金就是做多“其他一切都不安全”的信念。
Which is the same as shorting people.
这等同于做空他人。
Shorting progress.
做空未来。
Shorting yourself.
做空自己。
I get why people buy it.
我理解人们购买的原因。
I buy it too.
我自己也在买。
Sometimes you hedge a risk you hate, because the tape does not care about your ethics.
有时候你必须对冲你痛恨的风险，因为市场不在乎你的道德。
But do not confuse the hedge with a worldview.
但切勿将对冲操作与世界观混为一谈。
Gold is not a future.
黄金并非未来。
It is a receipt for futures you did not build.
它是一张收据，证明你没有去建设本该到来的未来。
And if you make money on it, at least admit what you were paid for.
若你由此获利，至少，承认你所获报酬的实质。
You were paid to imagine collapse.
你被付钱去想象崩塌。
You were paid to price in misery.
你被付钱去给痛苦定价。
You were paid to short your own civilization.
你被付钱去做空自己的文明。
If you still want a one line summary.
如果你还想要一行总结。
Long gold is short hope.
看多黄金就是做空希望。
但作为游戏的参与者，我们没有选择。
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