注：本文原发于深度星球北京时间3月28日的Tactical Positioning专栏，部分内容已删减，完整版可在文末获取。
Sean's take : https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2
“原油端面临的严峻断供危机正将 WTI 油价推向 100 美元的敏感关口。这种持续的能源通胀预期，不仅迫使全球长端国债收益率加速飙升，更使得美元指数逼近危险的 100-101 区间。一旦美元在此企稳，势必将对全球权益资产估值与宏观流动性造成毁灭性的去杠杆打击。
与此同时，美股大盘已全面滑向“生死边缘”。标普 500 指数遗憾失守 6.55K 的关键阵地，若短期内无法收复，下行趋势将彻底确立；而纳指则在跌破并受阻于 24.2K 后，面临着极深度的回调风险。
在避险端，飙升的收益率与强势美元的组合正在大幅削弱黄金的危机溢价。金价在跌穿 4.7-4.75K 趋势线后，目前正于 4K 这一不容有失的多空生命线附近艰难寻底，一旦实质性跌破将面临灾难性后果...
Trump TACO'd on Monday morning. Oil was dumped to the low 80s, while NQ gained almost 1,000 handles in minutes. However, the market is tired of Trump's lies, and the spike was entirely erased before the market opened on Friday.
特朗普在周一早间又上演了 TACO 戏码。原油被抛售跌至 80 出头，而纳指期货100期货指数在几分钟内飙升了近 1000 点。但市场已经厌倦了特朗普的谎言，这波拉升在周五开盘前已经被全数抹去。
Note that Trump pulled a similar TACO move on Thursday right after the market closed by extending the strike deadline by 10 more days. This spike was much smaller than the Monday spike, when Trump extended the strike deadline by 5 days, and it was immediately sold off.
值得注意的是，特朗普在周四收盘后故技重施，再次采取了类似的 TACO 举动，将打击期限延长了 10 天。这次引发的拉升幅度远小于周一（当时他将期限延长了 5 天），而且涨幅同样很快就被市场卖回去。
In past TACO moves, the market almost always gave Trump the benefit of the doubt when he extended the deadline. Sometimes, we even saw the market trade above the level it was at before the conflict began after he TACO'd. We all know the U.S. has lost this war unless it decides to launch a ground invasion.
在过去的 TACO 举动中，只要特朗普延长最后期限，市场几乎总是会选择相信他。有时我们甚至会看到在他在 TACO 之后，市场价格反而超过了冲突爆发前的水平。我们都清楚，除非美国决定发动地面入侵，否则这场战争美国已经输了。
WTI was once again hovering around the key 100 level as of the market close on Friday. Dozens of countries have run out of oil reserves, and dozens more are weeks, if not days, away from running out. The situation will only get worse in April. See the chart below from JPM.
截至周五收盘，WTI 原油再次在关键的 100 关口附近徘徊。已有数十个国家的石油储备已经耗尽，另有数十个国家的储备距离耗尽仅剩几周甚至几天的时间。4 月的情况只会更糟。下方这张摩根大通的图就能说明问题。
图1：来自波斯湾与东南亚的石油流向——摩根大通
Oil prices start to converge after Trump TACO'd on Monday.
特朗普在周一上演了 TACO 戏码后，油价开始收敛。
图2：全球原油基准价格（日线，截至2026-03-27）
The 100 level remains a strong ST resistance that CL must break to sustain upside momentum. The next resistance sits around its recent high near 120. Meanwhile, a break below the recent low of 84 would most likely indicate real progress in a ceasefire deal.
100 关口依然是强劲的短期阻力位，WTI原油期货（CL）必须突破该位置才能维持上行动能。下一个阻力位在其近期高点附近，大约 120 一带。与此同时，如果跌破近期84的低点，则极有可能预示着停火协议取得了实质性进展。
图3：WIT原油（CL）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
Brent's technicals remain stronger than WTI's, as the U.S. does not rely on the Middle East to meet its oil demand.
布伦特原油的技术面依然强于 WTI 原油，因为美国并不依赖中东来满足其石油需求。
图4：布伦特原油（BZ）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
After breaching below the trendline support around 4.7-4.75K, gold entered freefall and found a bottom at 4.1K, 100 handles above the major trendline support. As I noted long ago, gold tends to outperform before and after a crisis, but not during one.
在跌破 4700-4750 附近的趋势线支撑后，黄金进入自由落体状态，并在 4100 处触底，该位置比那条主要趋势线支撑高出 100 个点。正如我很久之前指出的那样，黄金往往在危机爆发前和危机结束后表现优异，但在危机期间则不然。
This played out very well for us, as we were able to both catch the rally all the way to the very top and short at the very top. I also warned once again about an imminent selloff when gold rallied back to 5.4K.
这一点在我们过去的交易中得到了完美印证，我们不仅吃到了全程的上涨利润，还在最高点成功做空。当黄金反弹回 5400 时，我也曾再次警告抛售即将到来。
Gold tends to show strong positive correlations to risk assets when a crisis hits, and then decouples at some point and outperforms thereafter. The Iran conflict still has a very large effect on gold's path, as a continued conflict will keep oil prices elevated, and therefore inflation and inflation expectations elevated, which leads to higher long-end yields, a selloff in long-duration assets such as the Magnificent 7, and a stronger dollar as deleveraging progresses. Both higher yields and a stronger dollar do not bode well for a bullish gold thesis.
当危机来袭时，黄金往往会先与风险资产表现出强烈的正相关性，随后在某个节点脱钩，并在此后跑赢大盘。伊朗冲突依然对黄金的走势有着巨大的影响，因为冲突若持续，油价将保持高位，进而推高通胀和通胀预期，这会导致长端收益率上升、引发长久期资产（如科技七巨头 M7）的抛售，并在去杠杆推进过程中强化美元。收益率上升和美元走强，对黄金的多头逻辑来说都不是好兆头。
If the situation starts to stabilize, and gold manages not to break below the vital support around 4K, then if it manages to climb above the recent support-turned-resistance around 4.55K and another resistance around 4.65K, we could see gold rally from there to make a new ATH.
如果局势开始企稳，且黄金能够守住 4000 附近这一关键支撑，那么只要它重新站上此前支撑（如今已转为阻力的 4500 附近，以及更上方 4650 附近的另一道阻力），我们就有机会看到黄金由此展开的反弹，并创出历史新高。
Note that 4K is very, very important for gold to sustain any upward move. A clean break below it would be devastating for gold.
需要注意的是，4000 对于黄金维持任何上行趋势都极其、极其重要。一旦被干净利落地跌破，对黄金将是毁灭性的打击。
图5：黄金（日线，截至2026-03-27）
Note that silver bounced from its major trendline support on Monday. Similar to gold, a break below silver's major trendline would be devastating, as we would likely see a move back into the 50s.
需要注意的是，白银在周一从其主要趋势线支撑位反弹。与黄金类似，跌破主要趋势线对白银将是毁灭性的，因为我们很可能会看到它重新回到 50 多的区间。
On the upside, 72 remains the ST resistance, as silver has struggled to break above it over the past few days. We need to see a clean break above 80 to signal more upside.
上行方面，72 仍然是短线阻力位，因为过去几天白银一直难以突破该位置。我们需要看到价格有效突破 80，才能确认更多上行空间。
图6：白银（日线，截至2026-03-27）
After breaching the lower bound of the box support, copper has struggled to reclaim it. Unless it reclaims the key 5.55 resistance, momentum remains to the downside.
铜在跌破箱体支撑的下轨后，一直难以将其收复。除非它能重新站上 5.55 的关键阻力位，否则动能依然向下。
图7：铜期货（HG）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
DXY needs to sit above 100-101 for a few days to see more upside. Should it occur, we'd see a collapse in equities.
美元指数（DXY）需要在 100-101 上方企稳几天，才能看到更多的上行空间。如果出现这种情况，股市将迎来一轮明显下挫。
图8：美元指数（日线，截至2026-03-27）
Yields worldwide continue to explode to the upside, as we expected. Higher oil prices for longer -> higher inflation expectations -> higher long-end yields -> lower equity multiples, especially for long-duration names such as the M7.
正如我们所预期的那样，全球收益率继续向上爆发。“油价在更长时间内保持高位-通胀预期抬升-长端收益率走高-股市估值倍数下杀”（），这对于长久期标的（如科技七巨头 M7）尤为不利。
As long as the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz is not back in business, we should expect higher oil prices and higher yields across the globe.
只要战争还在继续，且霍尔木兹海峡的航运未恢复正常，我们就应预期全球范围内将会出现更高的油价和更高的收益率。
图9：美国2年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图10：美国10年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
Note that the US 30Y has broken above resistance. If it doesn't fall back below it, the consequences could be devastating.
值得注意的是，美国 30 年期国债收益率已经向上突破阻力位。如果它不回落至该水平下方，后果可能会极其惨烈。
图11：美国30年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图12：德国10年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图13：法国10年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图14：英国10年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图15：加拿大10年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图16：韩国10年期国债收益率（日线，截止2026-03-27）
图17：日本10年期国债收益率（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图18：波动率指数（VIX）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
“我也许来早了，但我没有错。”——《大空头》
图19：SPX生命线（月线，截至2026-03-27）
图20：SPX生命线（周线，截至2026-03-27）
As I mentioned before, Trump cares about only four things: 1) stock market performance; 2) Treasury yields; 3) inflation expectations; and 4) his approval ratings. If you look at past TACOs, the majority of them happened precisely when either Treasury yields hit an intolerable level or SPX dropped to a key support that had to be defended. As the greatest market manipulator of all time, he understands the significance of key levels just like we do.
正如我之前提到的，特朗普只关心四件事：1）股市表现；2）美债收益率；3）通胀预期；以及 4）他的支持率。如果你回顾过去的 TACO 时刻，就会发现其中的绝大多数都恰好发生在美债收益率触及他难以忍受的水平，或者 SPX 跌至某个必须死守住的关键支撑位之时。作为史上最伟大的市场操纵者，他跟我们一样清楚关键点位的重要性。
SPX broke below the key 6.55K level last Friday, and futures tanked further before the market opened on Monday. To fix this, Trump extended the strike deadline on Iran by 5 days before Monday's open, and NQ gained 1,000 handles in just minutes.
SPX 指数上周五跌破了 6550 点的关键水平，而在周一开盘前，期货进一步大跌。为了救场，特朗普在周一开盘前将对伊朗的打击最后期限延长了 5 天，结果NQ在短短几分钟内飙升 1000 点。
More interestingly, abnormal buying in equity futures and selling in oil futures were spotted minutes before the announcement. This was, without a doubt, insider trading that generated hundreds of millions in profit in just 20 minutes. The beauty of technical analysis is that we don't need insider information to know where the money is flowing.
更有趣的是，在公告发布前几分钟，市场上出现了期指的异常买盘和原油期货的异常卖盘。毫无疑问，这是内幕交易，而且仅仅在 20 分钟内就创造了数亿美元的利润。技术分析最美妙的地方就在于，我们并不需要内幕信息，就能知道资金流向何处。
After Monday's open, I posted a desk note on Trump's TACO move and stayed bearish on equities despite the headlines. The gist was that the price action from that TACO, despite its intimidating magnitude, did not bring about any structural change to our outlook. On Thursday and Friday, the market accelerated to the downside.
周一开盘后，我在交易台笔记里发布了一篇关于特朗普这次 TACO 举动的点评，并在铺天盖地的头条新闻面前依然维持对美股的看空立场。核心逻辑是，尽管这次 TACO 引发的行情声势骇人，但并没有对我们的整体结构判断造成任何改变。到了周四和周五，市场下跌开始加速。
Momentum remains to the downside unless SPX reclaims 6.55K.
除非 SPX 重新站上 6550 点，否则动能依然向下。
图21：标普500指数（SPX）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
As expected, NDX extended to the downside after posting a clean break below the key support around 24.2K last week. Despite Trump's efforts to pump the market, NDX was rejected at 24.2K from below from Monday through Wednesday.
正如预期的那样，NDX 在上周干净利落地跌破 24200 点附近的关键支撑后，本周继续向下延伸。尽管特朗普试图托市，但从周一到周三，NDX 在反抽 24200 点下方时均遭到拒绝（承压回落）。
图22：纳斯达克100指数（NDX）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
People called me crazy when I first shared this chart back in January. Unless we see a material shift in the Iran conflict, this remains the most probable path from here.
今年 1 月我第一次分享这张图表时，很多人都觉得我疯了。除非我们在伊朗冲突中看到实质性的转变，否则这依然是后市最有可能的演变路径。
图23：纳斯达克100指数（NDX）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
Dow bounced precisely from our support minutes before the close on Friday. 45K should act as solid ST support. A clean break below would be devastating. I expect a bounce from this level. A break below 45K opens the door to 42K, after which comes 38K.
道指（Dow）在周五收盘前几分钟，精准地从我们给出的支撑位展开反弹。45000 点应该会构成坚实的短线支撑。一旦有效跌破，后果将是毁灭性的。我预计价格会从这里出现反弹。若跌破 45000 点，则将打开下探 42000 点的大门，再往下看则是 38000 点。
图24：道琼斯工业平均指数（DJI）（日线，截至2026-03-27）
图25：道琼斯工业平均指数（DJI）（1分钟线，截至2026-03-27）
更多后续讨都在深度星球了...
我们将在深度交易星球同步更新内部的实时交易和市场评论等面板。
星球的定位是在一年订阅期内，由Sean执笔对应Tactical Positioning栏目，专注美股、债券等美盘内容。属于我们的任务是处理亏损而非盈利，因为盈利自己会照顾好自己。
深度星球加入链接：https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2
Sean‘s take：https://t.zsxq.com/LvoAV
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