来源：市场资讯
（来源：聚烯烃人）
霍尔木兹海峡的有效关闭及其对亚洲石化生产商的影响，2026年全球乙烯产量可能减少约2200万吨，相当于2025年全球产量的12%，因为中东的蒸汽裂解厂关闭，亚洲工厂因原料短缺而降低开工率。 据S&P Global Energy CERA全球烯烃负责人Walt Hart介绍。
中东战争引发的供应中断导致波斯湾境内2900万吨名牌乙烯产能被孤立，伊朗、科威特和卡塔尔的裂解器完全停产，其他地区设施接近最低运营速率，导致该地区约损失1500万吨乙烯产量。 哈特于3月26日在休斯顿举行的S&P Global世界石化大会（WPC）全体会议上表示，会议于3月23日至27日举行。
“我们在中东拥有约3500万吨乙烯产能。近600万吨位于波斯湾以外。这使得波斯湾境内约有2900万吨乙烯产能被孤立。这就是直接的影响，“他说。
然而，哈特表示，供应链影响远超波斯湾，因为原料石脑油和原油的中断持续促使亚洲的石油化工厂运营商降低开工率。他表示，中国可能因此不得不减少约5%的乙烯产量，亚洲其他地区也将减少约10%，这将使今年年化乙烯产量将进一步减少700万至800万吨，此外波斯湾损失了1500万吨。
全球一半的产能受影响
哈特表示，2025年全球乙烯产量约为1.85亿吨，而全球名牌乙烯产能约为2.32亿吨。
哈特表示，除了波斯湾受影响的2900万吨产能外，亚洲的原料短缺还影响了东北亚约8100万吨产能、东南亚1500万吨和南亚900万吨产能。“总的来说，这次事件影响了全球超过一半的容量。”
在乙烯衍生物方面，冲突已影响中东聚乙烯和乙二醇向亚洲的主要出口，进一步扰乱了聚烯烃（包括聚酯和聚对苯二甲酸乙二甲酸酯）的供应链。
他表示，原料短缺不仅影响了对日本、韩国和台湾的石脑油出口，也影响了中国的原油供应，而中国的国内炼油部门大量石脑油的生产。
哈特表示，预期的产量下滑发生在全球乙烯行业持续应对结构性产能过剩和需求疲软导致的长期利润低谷之际，运营率和盈利能力在2029-30财年之前难以显著恢复。
自2020年代初以来，北美、美国和中国的产能增加速度超过了需求增长，形成了前所未有的十年超建周期。
哈特表示，长期来看，乙烯需求仍预计将稳步增长，尽管增长速度可能放缓，随着增量需求最终赶上产能增加，运营率和利润率的恢复预计要到2030年代初至中期才会回升。
潘多拉的盒子
在3月26日WPC的一次独立原料展示中，S&P Global Energy石油、燃料和化工研究高级副总裁兼负责人Kurt Barrow形容中东冲突“在这里打开了潘多拉的盒子。几十年来，我们在石油和原料市场中讨论了霍尔木兹海峡关闭的风险。这从未发生过，直到这次。现在伊朗政权知道他们可以关闭它。”
无论结果如何，巴罗表示，与水道相关的风险问题将持续高企，且“这是一个已知的、更可能且更合理的情景。而且这可能不会以一个干净利落的和解告终。”
关于这场中断影响可能需要多长时间才能缓解的问题，也由S&P Global Energy副总裁兼全球化工主管Andrew Neale在同一场WPC会议中进行了讨论。
“我们的工作假设是四月底。如果海峡那时开放，我们预计航运恢复正常需要两个月，因为目前有1600艘船只在那个瓶颈两侧，”他说。“但化学品不会是首要优先。会是石油、天然气、液化石油气、喷气。第二优先是石脑油、液化石油气。只有到那时才会涉及化学品......从供应链角度来看，我们认为这需要几个季度的时间，而不是几个月。”
尼尔表示，虽然油价迅速上涨，随后是石脑油，但商品化学品乙烯和聚乙烯“反应不够快，所以我们正在吸收部分利润空间”。
然而，对于像美国这样气价较低的生产商来说，“你可以利用这些亚洲衍生品市场的价格上涨空间。因此，随着我们进行这一过程，预计到三月利润率会更高，”他说。
原文速递
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on petrochemical producers in Asia could slash global ethylene production by about 22 million metric tons in 2026, equivalent to 12% of global output in 2025, as steam crackers in the Middle East shut down and Asian plants reduce operating rates due to feedstock shortages, according to Walt Hart, head of global olefins at S&P Global Energy CERA.
The supply disruption caused by the war in the Middle East has isolated 29 million mt of nameplate ethylene capacity within the Persian Gulf, with Iranian, Kuwaiti and Qatari crackers completely shut down and other regional facilities running close to minimum operating rates, resulting in approximately 15 million mt of lost ethylene production in the region, Hart said March 26 in a plenary presentation at S&P Global’s World Petrochemical Conference (WPC) in Houston, being held March 23–27.
“We have about 35 million mt of ethylene capacity in the Middle East. Almost 6 million mt of that is outside the Persian Gulf. That leaves about 29 million mt of ethylene capacity that is isolated within the Persian Gulf. That’s the direct impact,” he said.
The supply-chain impact extends well beyond the Persian Gulf, however, as feedstock naphtha and crude oil disruptions continue to prompt petchem plant operators in Asia to lower operating rates, Hart said. China may have to reduce its ethylene output by an estimated 5% as a result and the rest of Asia by about 10%, eliminating a further combined 7-8 million mt of annualized ethylene production this year in addition to the 15 million mt lost in the Persian Gulf, he said.
Half of global capacity impacted
Global ethylene production totaled about 185 million mt in 2025, while global nameplate ethylene capacity stood at approximately 232 million mt, Hart said.
In addition to the 29 million mt of capacity impacted in the Persian Gulf, the feedstock shortage in Asia is further affecting about 81 million mt of capacity in Northeast Asia, 15 million mt in Southeast Asia and 9 million mt in South Asia, Hart said. “All told, we’re looking at well over half of global capacity affected by this incident.”
In terms of ethylene derivatives, the conflict has hit major export flows of polyethylene and ethylene glycol from the Middle East to Asia, further disrupting supply chains for polyolefins including polyester and polyethylene terephthalate, he said.
The feedstock shortage is impacting not only naphtha shipments to Japan, South Korea and Taiwan but also crude oil supplies to China, which generates much of its own naphtha from its domestic refining sector, he said.
The anticipated production decline comes as the global ethylene industry continues to grapple with a prolonged margin trough caused by structural overcapacity and weak demand, with operating rates and profitability unlikely to recover significantly until 2029–30, Hart said.
The sector has seen capacity additions from North America, the US and China outpace demand growth since the early 2020s, creating an unprecedented 10-year overbuild cycle.
Longer term, ethylene demand is still expected to grow steadily, though the rate may slow, with a recovery in operating rates and margins not anticipated until the early to mid-2030s as incremental demand finally catches up with capacity additions, Hart said.
Pandora’s Box
In a separate feedstocks presentation at WPC on March 26, Kurt Barrow, senior vice president and head of oil, fuel and chemicals research at S&P Global Energy, described the conflict in the Middle East as having “opened Pandora’s Box here. We have talked about the risk of closure of the Strait of Hormuz for decades in the oil and feedstock markets. It’s never happened, until this time. Now the Iranian regime knows they can close it.”
Whatever the outcome, Barrow said the issue of risk related to the waterway will remain elevated and a “known, much more likely and plausible scenario going forward. And this may not end in a nice clean settlement.”
The question of how long the impact of the disruption may take to unwind was addressed in the same WPC session by Andrew Neale, vice president and global head of chemicals at S&P Global Energy.
“Our working assumption is the end of April. If the strait opens then, we see it taking two months for traffic to return to some sort of normality, given that 1,600 vessels are either side of that chokepoint right now,” he said. “But chemicals is not going to be the first priority. It’s going to be oil, gas, LPG, jet. The second priority is going to be naphtha, LPG. Only then do you get to chemicals… We see this as being a couple of quarters to play out, rather than a couple of months, from a supply chain perspective.”
Neale said that while oil prices had jumped up quickly, followed by naphtha, the commodity chemicals ethylene and polyethylene had “not responded quite as quickly, so we’re absorbing some of that margin.”
However, for producers with a lower gas price such as the US, “you can take advantage of that upside in price for those derivative markets that you’re selling into over in Asia. So there will be higher margins reported through March as we go through this,” he said.
素材来源 | Chemical Week
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