注：本文原发于深度星球北京时间4月18日的内容。本文仅摘取部分内容，完整版可在文末获取。
We have seen some de-escalation after Trump pressured Netanyahu into a ceasefire in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran agreed to allow cargo ships to pass through the Strait. Headlines are suggesting a full reopening of the Strait, while our monitors show that the majority of cargo vessels and tankers attempted the crossing but eventually made U-turns, suggesting that Iran remains in de facto control of the Strait and decides which ships can pass. Oil prices have compressed sharply as de-escalation hopes built.
在特朗普施压内塔尼亚胡在黎巴嫩达成停火后，我们观察到地缘局势出现了一定程度的降温。 与此同时，伊朗同意允许货船通过海峡。 尽管新闻头条暗示海峡已全面重新开放，但我们的监测数据显示，绝大多数货船和油轮在尝试穿越时最终都掉头折返，这表明伊朗事实上仍控制着海峡，并决定着哪些船只可以通行。随着市场对局势降温的预期升温，油价出现大幅下跌。
图表1：全球原油基准（Global Crude Benchmarks，日线，截至2026-04-17）
The peace talks that took place last weekend failed, as we expected, but no escalation followed. We saw a big opening gap on Sunday night that pushed WTI above 105, but as de-escalation progressed, WTI closed in the low 80s on Friday. In my last tactical positioning note, published just before the peace talks, I outlined two possible paths for WTI, and it appears that it has chosen the downward one. It is now hanging on to the 81 support level. Once it breaks below that level, we should see a gradual decline into the low 70s.
正如我们预期的那样，上周末举行的和平谈判以失败告终，但随后也没有出现局势升级。 周日晚间我们看到了一个巨大的开盘跳空缺口，一度将 WTI 原油推高至 105 以上，但随着局势逐步降温，WTI 在周五收于 80 出头。 在我于和谈前夕发布的tactical positioning中，我概述了 WTI 可能走出的两条路径，目前看来市场选择了向下的一条。当前价格正悬靠在 81 的支撑位上。一旦跌破该水平，我们预计将看到价格逐渐回落至 70 出头。
图：4/11 tactical positioning
图表2：WTI原油期货（CL，日线，截至2026-04-17）
BZ failed to reclaim the box and headed lower, as we expected.
正如我们预期的那样，布伦特原油未能重新站回箱体并转头向下。
图表3：布伦特原油期货（BZ，日线，截至2026-04-17）
图：4/11 tactical positioning
Gold reclaimed the 4770 resistance following de-escalation news and has backtested 4770 as support from above over the past few sessions. As long as this level holds, we could see it head toward the next major resistance, which is 5K.
随着局势降温的消息传出，黄金收复了 4770 的阻力位，并在过去几个交易日中从上方回测了 4770 作为支撑的有效性。只要该水平得以守住，我们预计金价将向下一个主要阻力位 5k 进发。
图表4：黄金（Gold，日线，截至2026-04-17）
Silver is tangling around the key resistance near 79. If it can hold above it for a few days, we could see it head higher.
白银目前正纠缠于79附近的关键阻力位。如果它能在该水平上方企稳几天，我们有望看到它进一步走高。
图表5：白银（Silver，日线，截至2026-04-17）
Copper continued its upward momentum and is heading toward the upper channel.
铜延续了其上涨动能，正向上方通道运行。
图表6：铜期货（HG，日线，截至2026-04-17）
99 remains the key resistance. In the ST, as long as DXY remains below 99, it stays supportive of equities and commodities.
99 仍然是关键阻力位。在短期内，只要美元指数保持在 99 以下，就仍对股市和大宗商品构成支撑。
图表7：美元指数（DXY，日线，截至2026-04-17）
US2Y broke below our key support level around 3.8% on Friday.
周五，美国2年期国债收益率跌破了我们位于 3.8% 附近的关键支撑位。
图表8：美国2年期国债收益率（US2Y，日线，截至2026-04-17）
Unless we see it move back inside the triangle, momentum remains to the upside.
除非我们看到它重新回到三角形内，否则动能依然偏向上行。
图表9：美国10年期国债收益率（US10Y，日线，截至2026-04-17）
Long-end yields are struggling to break above resistance.
长端收益率在向上突破阻力位时遇到阻碍。
图表10：美国30年期国债收益率（US30Y，日线，截至2026-04-17）
VIX attempted to break above the key resistance on Monday but failed, as we saw no escalation following the failed peace talks.
周一，由于和平谈判失败后并未出现局势升级，恐慌指数试图向上突破关键阻力位，但未能成功。
图表11：波动率指数（VIX，日线，截至2026-04-17）
SPX broke above our line in the sand at 6870 on Monday. As I mentioned in the desk note on 04/14, there were no longer any signs of bearishness: VIX backtested and was rejected by the major trendline. DXY remained below 99, yields were down, oil was down, and bellwether sectors were leading to the upside. The move that followed the clean break above the key 6870 level was fierce to the upside. I think we'll see some pullbacks from the 7200 area next week. Despite the rosy tape and headlines suggesting we are getting close to a peace deal and that the Strait is open, with price going vertical, I would advise caution going forward. I stand by my view that a peace deal will be very hard to reach, as Iran will not give up control of the Strait or its nuclear program. Ship traffic through the Strait remains low, and Iran still decides which ships can pass. Our monitors show that the majority of ships made U-turns after attempting to cross the Strait following Trump's claim that it had reopened. In war, the side that can endure more pain tends to prevail, not the one that can inflict more of it. Equities have rallied hard, oil has been dumped, and yields are back below levels where Trump could pull another wildcard to manipulate the market again. As price goes vertical, stops are paramount to protect your profits.
标普500指数在周一向上突破了我们设定的 6870 这一底线。正如我在 04/14 的交易台笔记中所提到的，市场已不再有任何看跌的迹象：VIX 回测了主要趋势线并受阻回落。美元指数维持在 99 以下，收益率下降，油价下跌，而风向标板块正领涨大盘。在干净利落地突破 6870 这一关键水平后，市场出现了极为猛烈的上冲。我认为下周我们会在 7200 附近区域看到一些回撤。尽管盘面看起来一片乐观，新闻头条也暗示我们正接近达成和平协议且海峡已经开放，但在价格呈现垂直拉升的情况下，我建议对接下来的行情保持谨慎。我依然坚持我的观点，即和平协议将极难达成，因为伊朗不会放弃对海峡或其核计划的控制权。穿越海峡的船只流量依然很低，且仍然由伊朗来决定哪些船只可以通行。我们的监测数据显示，在特朗普声称海峡已经重新开放之后，绝大多数尝试穿越海峡的船只都掉头折返了。在战争中，往往是能承受更多痛苦的一方占据上风，而不是更能施加更多痛苦的一方。股市已经大幅反弹，原油遭到抛售，而收益率也回落至特朗普可能再次祭出意外手段操纵市场的水平之下。随着价格呈垂直式上涨，设置止损对于保护你的利润至关重要。
图表12：标普500指数（SPX，日线，截至2026-04-17）
Similar to SPX, NDX showed strong upside momentum after breaking above the key resistance on Monday.
与 SPX 类似，纳斯达克100指数在周一突破关键阻力位后，展现出了强劲的上行势头。
图表13：纳斯达克100指数（NDX，日线，截至2026-04-17）
Dow bounced precisely from our 45K support level.
道琼斯指数精准地从我们给出的 45K 支撑位反弹。
图表14：道琼斯工业平均指数（DJI，日线，截至2026-04-17）
RUT posted a new ATH, as we expected, following a clean break on Monday.
正如我们预期的那样，罗素2000指数在周一的干净利落突破之后，创下了历史新高。
图：4/11 tactical positioning
图表15：罗素2000指数（RUT，日线，截至2026-04-17）
图表16：日经225指数（NIKKEI，日线，截至2026-04-17）
NIFTY bounced off our 22K support and is now facing resistance around 24.4K.
印度 NIFTY 指数从我们的 22K 支撑位反弹，目前正面临 24.4K 附近的阻力。
图表17：印度Nifty 50指数（NIFTY，日线，截至2026-04-17）
I expect a pullback from the 67 area.
我预计在 67 附近区域会出现回撤。
图表18：七巨头ETF（MAGS，日线，截至2026-04-17）
完整内容订阅链接：Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2
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