来源：市场资讯

（来源：Charlie伴你投资）

以下内容节选自《Security Analysis》chapter 27：

It may well be that the earnings trend offers a more dependable clue to the future than does the earnings average. But at best such an indication of future results is far from certain, and, more important still, there is no method of establishing a logical relationship between trend and price. This means that the value placed upon a satisfactory trend must be wholly arbitrary, and hence speculative, and hence inevitably subject to exaggeration and later collapse.

盈利趋势可能确实比平均盈利更能可靠地为未来提供线索。但即便如此，对未来结果的这种指示也远非确定，更重要的是，没有任何方法可以建立趋势与价格之间的逻辑关系。这意味着对令人满意的趋势所赋予的价值必须是完全任意的，因此是投机性的，因此不可避免地会受到夸大，随后崩溃。

In the broad economic sense, there is the law of diminishing returns and of increasing competition which must finally flatten out any sharply upward curve of growth. There is also the flow and ebb of the business cycle, from which the particular danger arises that the earnings curve will look most impressive on the very eve of a serious setback.

从广义的经济角度讲，存在着收益递减规律和竞争加剧的规律，这些规律最终会压平任何急剧上升的增长曲线。还有商业周期的涨落，由此产生了特别危险，即盈利曲线可能在重大挫折的前夕看起来最为令人印象深刻。

声明：个人观点，非投资建议