根据英国央行最新预测，由于冠状病毒大流行，英国经济正走向300多年来的最严重崩溃。

英国央行周四表示，英国经济今年可能萎缩14%。根据该行自己对历史数据的最佳估计，这将是自1706年经济下降15%以来的最大年度收缩。

州长安德鲁·贝利说，随着冠状病毒的进一步威胁，政府会为支持经济做出必要的回应，但他没有宣布任何新的刺激措施。

英格兰银行在一份关于大流行影响的评审报告中说，今年第一季度GDP收缩了3%，第二季度将下降多达25%，比2019年底缩减约30%。失业率预计将增至9%。

央行预计2021年经济将迅速复苏，但警告称，这一预测既取决于"大流行的演变，以及政府、家庭和企业如何应对"，又以逐步放松社会疏远措施并采取"非常重要"的货币和财政刺激措施为前提。

该行警告称，关于经济崩溃的规模更可能的是低估了，而不是夸大了。

德国商业银行的经济学家表示，他们预计会出现更多经济伤疤，复苏速度将放缓。他们说，历史案例表明，产出将更长期地流失，失业问题将更为持久。

"目前的情况是我们有生之年前所未有的，所有预测者都在努力弄清楚经济目前的状况，而未关注将来会发生什么。但很明显，未来几个月将出现一些创纪录的最大产出下降，"德国商业银行经济学家彼得·迪克森表示。

英国有20多万例冠状病毒确诊病例，3万多人死于该病。外界普遍猜测，政府早在3月底就准备放宽自3月下旬以来的社会疏远限制，但一位政府部长周四表示，尚未做出决定。

布兰登·刘易斯告诉BBC："我们还没有就这些问题作出任何最终决定。"我只想对人们说，不要被我们可能读到的东西过于带偏。”

一些欧洲国家已经采取了试探性措施，重新开放其经济，因为该地区受到欧盟官员所称的自大萧条以来最严重的经济冲击的打击。欧盟委员会本周警告称，今年欧盟经济将创纪录地萎缩7.5%，而使用欧元的19个国家，经济下降可能更为急剧。

英格兰银行已经采取了一些措施，以应对数周的封锁措施和生产损失造成的经济冲击，3月份将利率降至历史低点，并启动了2000亿英镑（合2480亿美元）的债券购买计划。

与此同时，英国政府推出了一项救助计划，其中包括总额达300亿英镑（合370亿美元）的企业减税，以及长达12个月的无息贷款。政府还为600多万工人支付初始期为三个月的工资。

未来几个月可能会采取更多的行动。央行货币政策委员会的两名成员将投票决定再向刺激计划注资1000亿欧元（合1240亿美元），外界经济学家预计，一旦形势明朗，其他成员会同意。

如果冠状病毒继续传播，而政府被迫延长或重新实施封锁，可能需要超过1000亿欧元。

资本经济的研究人员说："银行最终可能会走得更远。”

The UK economy is heading for its worst crash in 300 years

The UK economy is heading for its worst crash in more than 300 years because of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new forecast from the Bank of England.

The central bank said Thursday that the British economy could shrink by 14% this year. That would be the biggest annual contraction since a decline of 15% in 1706, based on the bank's own best estimate of historical data.

Governor Andrew Bailey said it would respond as necessary to support the economy as the coronavirus threat evolves, but stopped short of announcing any new stimulus measures.

In a report that examined the impact of the pandemic, the Bank of England said that GDP contracted by 3% in the first quarter of this year and would fall by as much as 25% in the second quarter, leaving the economy about 30% smaller than it was at the end of 2019. Unemployment is expected to increase to 9%.

The central bank expects a swift economic recovery in 2021, but it cautioned that its forecast, which assumes a gradual easing of social distancing measures and "very significant" monetary and fiscal stimulus, depends on the "evolution of the pandemic, and how governments, households and businesses respond."

And the bank warned that it's more likely to have underestimated the scale of the economic crash than to have overstated it.

Economists at Commerzbank said that they expect more economic scarring and a slower recovery. Historic examples suggest there will be a more permanent loss of output, they said, and more persistent unemployment.

"Current conditions are unprecedented in our lifetime and all forecasters are struggling to make out where the economy stands now, never mind what happens in future. But it is clear that the next few months are going to produce some of the biggest output falls on record," said Commerzbank economist Peter Dixon.

Britain has more than 200,000 confirmed coronavirus cases, and more than 30,000 people have died from the disease. There has been widespread speculation that the government is preparing to ease social distancing restrictions in place since late March as early as Monday, but a government minister said Thursday that a decision has not yet been made.

"We haven't made any final decisions on these issues yet," Brandon Lewis told the BBC. "I would just say to people to not get too carried away with what we may be reading."

Some European countries have taken tentative steps to reopen their economies as the region is slammed by what EU officials describe as the worst economic shock since the Great Depression. The EU economy will shrink by a record 7.5% this year, the European Commission warned this week, and the drop could be even more precipitous across the 19 countries that use the euro.

The Bank of England has already taken some steps to counter the economic shock caused by weeks of lockdown measures and lost production, slashing interest rates to a record low in March and launching a 200 billion ($248 billion) bond buying program.

The UK government has meanwhile launched a rescue package that includes tax relief for businesses totaling 30 billion ($37 billion) and interest-free loans for up to 12 months. The government is also paying salaries for more than 6 million workers for an initial period of three months.

More action is likely to be taken in the coming months. Two members of the central bank's monetary policy committee voted to pump another 100 billion ($124 billion) into the stimulus program, and outside economists expect other members to agree once the situation becomes clearer.

If the coronavirus continues to spread, and the government is forced to extend or reintroduce lockdowns, much more than 100 billion could be needed.

"The bank may end up going much further," said researchers at Capital Economics“