经济学人阅读｜扉页文章 Suddenly, hope|sars|文章|疫苗|病毒|经济学

11.29｜经济学人阅读｜扉页文章 Suddenly, hope

经济学人The Economist是一份英国的英文新闻周报，分八个版本于每周五向全球发行，编辑部位于伦敦，创办于1843年9月。

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经济学人对于英语考试的重要性不言而喻，其文章常常出现在雅思托福、SAT、GRE、GMAT、考研英语、四六级、MTI和CATTI的阅读理解真题中。

今天羚羊君（公众：aa-acad）给大家分享的是经济学人2020年11月14日期刊中扉页文章的第一篇：Suddenly, hope。

这篇文章讲述了医药公司在研制新冠疫苗中所取得的成效，也阐述了目前以及将来在疫苗使用和分配中可能遇到的问题及解决方案。

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01

Suddenly, hope

突然的希望

Nine long years elapsed between the isolation of the measles virus in 1954 and the licensing of a vaccine. The world waited for 20 years between early trials of a polio vaccine and the rst American licence in 1955. Marvel, then, at how the world’s scientists are on course to produce a working vaccine against sarscov-2, the virus that causes covid-19, within a single year.

And not just any vaccine. The early data from a nal-stage trial unveiled this week by Pzer and BioNTech, two pharma companies, suggests that vaccination cuts your chances of suffering symptoms by more than 90%. That is almost as good as for measles and better than the u jab, with an ecacy of just 40-60% (see Brieng). Suddenly, in a dark winter, there is hope.

从1954年麻疹病毒分离到获得疫苗许可，经历了漫长的九年时间。从1955年脊髓灰质炎疫苗的早期试验到获得第一张美国许可证，世界等待了20年。而科学家仅在这一年内就开始有条不紊地研制抗sarscov-2的疫苗了（sarscov-2是导致covid-19的病毒），这是非常令人赞叹的。

科学家的行动不仅仅在于疫苗的研制。两家制药公司Pfizer和BioNTech本周公布的最终阶段试验的早期数据表明，接种疫苗可使人患病机率减少90％以上。这几乎和麻疹的疫苗一样有效，而且比流感疫苗效果还要好，流感疫苗的有效率只有40％到60％。在一个黑暗的冬季，人们突然有了希望。

02

Not surprisingly, Pzer’s news on November 9th roused the markets’ bulls. Investors dumped shares in Clorox, Peloton and tech rms, which have all beneted from the coronavirus, and instead switched into rms like Disney, Carnival and International Consolidated Airlines Group, which will do well when the sun shines again (see Finance section). The oecd, a club of mainly rich countries, reckons that global growth in 2021with an early vaccine will be 7%, two percentage points higher than without.

There is indeed much to celebrate. Pzer’s result suggests that other vaccines will work, too. Over 320 are in development, several in advanced trials. Most, like Pzer’s, focus on the spike protein with which sars-cov-2 gains entry to cells. If one vaccine has used this strategy to stimulate immunity, others probably can, too.

毫不令人惊讶的是，Pfizer11月9日的消息激起了市场的牛市。投资者抛售了Clorox，Peloton和高科技公司的股票，这些公司因新冠而获利；他们转而转投迪士尼，嘉年华和国际联合航空集团等公司，这些公司在疫情影响得到缓解时表现会很好（请参阅财务部分）。经合组织（OECD）是一个主要由富裕国家组成的集团，它估计到2021年，在早期疫苗的影响下，全球经济增长将为7％，比不采用疫苗高出两个百分点。

确实有很多值得庆祝的事情。Pfizer的结果表明，其他疫苗也将起到作用。超过320种疫苗正在开发中，其中一些处于试用阶段晚期。像Pfizer一样，大多数医药公司都集中精力于刺突蛋白上，sars-cov-2是通过这种蛋白进入细胞的。如果一种疫苗使用这种方式能够刺激免疫力，其他疫苗也可能可以做到。

03

Pzer’s vaccine is also the rst using a promising new technology. Many vaccines prime the immune system by introducing inert fragments of viral protein. This one gets the body to make the viral protein itself by inserting genetic instructions contained in a form of rna. Because you can edit rna, the vaccine can be tweaked should the spike protein mutate, as it may have recently in mink. This platform can be used with other viruses and other diseases, possibly including cancer, BioNTech’s original focus.

Pfizer的疫苗还首次使用了很有前景的新技术。许多疫苗通过引入病毒蛋白的惰性片段来引发免疫。通过插入包含于一种rna形态的遗传指令，这项技术使人体自行制造病毒蛋白。由于可以编辑rna，疫苗可以在纤突蛋白变异时也产生相应的变化。该技术可与BioNTech最初关注的其他病毒和其他疾病（可能包括癌症）一起使用。

04

So celebrate how far biology has come and how fruitfully it can manipulate biochemical machinery for the good of humanity (there will be time later to worry about how that power might also be abused). And celebrate the potency of science as a global endeavour. Drawing on contributions from across the world, a small German rm founded by rst-generation Turkish immigrants has successfully worked with an American multinational company headed by a Greek chief executive.

因此，我们应该为此庆祝：生物学已经发展得很长远，且可以通过操纵生化机制来造福人类（以后的某个时间，人们担心这种力量也可能被滥用）。我们同时还应该庆祝科学成为全球努力的力量。依靠来自世界各地的捐助，由第一代土耳其移民创立的一家小型德国公司已成功与一家由希腊首席执行官领导的美国跨国公司合作。

05

Yet despite the good news, two big questions stand out, about the characteristics of the vaccine and how fast it can be distributed. These are early results, based on 94 symptomatic cases of covid-19 from among the 44,000 volunteers. Further answers must wait until the trial has gathered more data. It is, therefore, not clear whether the vaccine stops severe cases or mild ones, or whether it protects the elderly, whose immune systems are weaker. Nor is it known whether inoculated people can still cause potentially fatal infections in those yet to receive jabs. And it is too soon to be sure how long the benecial eects will last.

尽管有好消息，但关于疫苗的特性和发放的速度有两个大问题。我们只有早期的疫苗研究的结果，这只是基于44,000名志愿者中94例有症状的covid-19病例。我们必须等待更多回答，直到试验收集到更多数据。因此，目前尚不清楚该疫苗是否可以终止严重或轻度的病例，或是可以保护免疫系统较弱的老年人。尚未知道接种者是否仍会在未接种疫苗者中造成潜在的致命感染。而且，现在尚无法确定疫苗的药效将持续多长时间。

06

Clarity will take time. In the next few weeks the trial should be declared safe, though further monitoring of the vaccine will be needed. The companies predict that immunity will last for at least a year. The 90%-plus ecacy is so high that this vaccine may oer at least some protection to all age groups.

While the world waits for data, it will have to grapple with distribution. Vaccine will be in short supply for most of next year. Although rna jabs may prove easier to make at scale than those based on proteins, Pzer’s requires two doses. The company has said that it will be able to produce up to 50m doses in 2020 and 1.3bn next year. That sounds a lot, but America alone has over 20m rst responders, medical sta, care-home workers and active-duty troops. Perhaps a fth of the world’s 7.8bn people, including two-thirds of those over 70, risk severe covid-19. Nobody has ever tried to vaccinate an entire planet at once. As the eort mounts, syringes, medical glass and sta could run short.

我们需要时间来让一切问题的答案清晰。在接下来的几周中，虽然仍然需要监测疫苗，但是需要宣布试验的安全性。两家公司预测，免疫至少会持续一年。90％以上的功效是如此之高，以至于该疫苗可能为所有年龄段的人提供至少某种保护。

在世界等待数据的同时，人们将不得不面临疫苗的分配问题。明年大部分时间疫苗都将供不应求。尽管事实证明，与基于蛋白质的那些疫苗相比，RNA疫苗的制备可能更容易，但Pfizer需要两剂。该公司表示，到2020年将能生产多达5,000万剂，明年将能生产13亿剂。这听起来很多，但仅美国一个地区就有超过2000万响应者、医疗人员、护理人员和现役军人。在全世界78亿人口中，有五分之一（其中包括70岁以上人口的三分之二）面临严重的covid-19风险。还没有人尝试过一次性为地球的全部人口接种疫苗。随着人们不断努力，注射器、医用玻璃杯和医护人员可能会面临短缺。

07

Worse, Pzer’s shots need to be stored at temperatures of -70°C or even colder, far beyond the scope of your local chemist. The company is building an ultra-cold chain, but the logistics will still be hard. The vaccine comes in batches of at least 975 doses, so you need to assemble that many people for their rst shot, and the same crowd again 21 days later for a booster. Nobody knows how many doses will be wasted.

更糟糕的是，Pfizer的疫苗需要存储在-70°C甚至更低的温度下，远远超出了一般的本地化学家能控制的范围。该公司正在建立一个超冷链，但是物流仍然很困难。疫苗至少以975针为一批，因此需要召集许多人进行第一次注射，然后在21天后再次召集同一群人进行加强注射。没有人知道有多少剂量会被浪费掉。

08

So long as there is too little vaccine to go around, priorities must be set by governments. A lot depends on them getting it right, within countries and between them. Modelling suggests that if 50 rich countries were to administer 2bn doses of a vaccine that is 80% eective, they would prevent a third of deaths globally; if the vaccine were supplied according to rich and poor countries’ population, that share would almost double. The details will depend on the vaccine. Poor countries may nd ultra-cold chains too costly.

只要没有大量疫苗可以真正流通，政府就必须确定优先事项。这很大程度上取决于政府在国家内部以及国家之间的正确性。模型表明，如果有50个富裕国家管理20亿剂有效率为80％的疫苗，它们将预防全球三分之一的死亡。如果疫苗是根据富国和穷国的人口数量进行供应的，那么这一比例将几乎翻一番。具体细节取决于疫苗本身。贫穷国家可能发现超冷链的成本太高。

09

The domestic answer to these problems is national committees to allocate vaccine optimally. The global answer is covax, an initiative to encourage countries’ equal access to supplies. Ultimately, though, the solution will be continued work on more vaccines. Some might survive in commercial refrigerators, others will work better on the elderly, still others might confer longer protection, require a single shot, or stop infections as well as symptoms. All those that work will help increase supply.

Only when there is enough to go around will anti-vaxxers become an obstacle. Early reports suggest the jab causes fevers and aches, which may also put some people o. The good news is that an ecacy of 90% makes vaccination more attractive.

美国国内解决这些问题的办法是由国家委员会对疫苗进行最佳分配。而全球对于这些问题的答案是"covax"，这是一项鼓励各国平等获得供应的法案。但最终的解决方案还是继续研发更多疫苗。有些疫苗也许可以在商用冰箱中保存，有些则可能在老年人身上更有效，还有一些则可以提供更长的保护期、只需要一次注射或能够阻断感染和相关症状。所有这些工作将有助于增加供应。

只有在有足够的疫苗供应时，反对疫苗的人才会成为障碍。早期报道表明疫苗会引起发烧和疼痛，这也可能使某些人不适。好消息是90％的效率使疫苗接种更具吸引力。