我是丹尼斯,继续更新苏伊士运河堵船中断事件,其实 就做了预判和影响分析,做为自媒体第一时间发布,然后做为投资者发现当天****大跌果断买入坐等上涨,目前现实仍在往预判的方向在走,有在雪球做投资记录,仅供参考。

继续不放不确定的内容,知道大家已信息过剩,只需知道EVER GIVEN仍丝毫没动,往最坏的结局去做预案,即使最好的预测下周顺利脱险,后续的蝴蝶效应也将是一片Chaos。还是那句,4月会更艰难,做好充分准备。当然,身体是第一位的,获悉一位同行也是最航运学习交流群的群友3月25日晚不幸脑溢血当即手术进了ICU。祝好,平安。

值得一提的是,为什么当天说除了欧线,美东也将直接影响。因为巴拿马运河最大通行能力有限, 但苏伊士运河可以通行目前全球最大24000TEU集装箱船, 而且货源制造业重心逐渐向中南半岛,孟加拉印度转移,苏伊士运河通行费又打5折促销与巴拿马争流量,因此目前亚洲到美东航线经苏伊士运河的比例已经相当高了。

我请容易船期做了具体分析汇总,2021年从亚洲到美东共有23条航线,其中14条走巴拿马运河, 9条走苏伊士运河。出发港华东、华北、韩国组CP的航线走巴拿马运河;华东、华南、台湾组CP的航线走巴拿马运河,但华南和东南亚港口一起的航线走苏伊士运河,纯东南亚港口或纯印巴港口的航线肯定是走苏伊士运河。

下面汇总船公司发布的受影响的船期,非常高的比例船开始绕行好望角!在不确定中找可以确定的方案,这是明智的!谁知道会不会堵一个月。 铁路,空运,海空预案都可以准备起来了。

COSCO SHIPPING更新

MSC更新

Vessels being re-routed via the Cape of Good Hope:

  • Australia Express service: MSC SINDY, voyage MA109A

  • 2M America service: MAERSK ALGOL, voyage 108E

  • 2M Elephant service: MAERSK SKARSTIND, voyage 109E

  • 2M Emerald service: BREMEN, voyage UL108W

  • 2M Emerald service: MSC BILBAO, voyage UL109W

  • INDUSA service: NORTHERN JAVELIN, voyage IV109R

  • INDUSA service: VARNA BAY, voyage IV110R

  • NWC to IPAK service: CONTI CORTESIA, voyage IP111R

  • 2M Lion Service: MSC AMSTERDAM, voyage QL110W

  • 2M Albatross service: MERETE MAERSK, voyage 111E

  • 2M Silk Service: MAERSK MADISON, voyage 111E

Vessels being turned back as per below comments:

  • India-Med Service: MSC STELLA, voyage MI109R, will discharge cargo at King Abdullah Port and return to India.

  • INDUSA Service: SEAMAX DARIEN, voyage IV108R, will discharge cargo in Mediterranean ports awaiting further orders.

Vessels impacted in the Suez area

As at 1800hrs CET, 26 March, the following vessels with MSC customers' cargo onboard are in the local area as we continue to monitor the situation (MSC fleet in bold; list subject to change).

Vessels anchored at the Great Bitter Lake during transit on 23 March:

  • MSC ROMA (southbound) – NWC to IPAK service, voyage IP109A

  • MAERSK ESMERALDAS (southbound) – 2M Shogun service, voyage 107E

  • MAERSK SAIGON (southbound) – 2M Elephant service, voyage 107E

  • GUNDE MAERSK (southbound) – 2M Empire service, voyage 108W

Vessels southbound waiting at anchor:

  • SEAMAX GREENWICH – Australia Express service, voyage MA108A

  • MAERSK HANOI – 2M Phoenix service, voyage 109E

  • SEAMAX NORWALK - Himalaya Express service, voyage IS109A

  • GEORG MAERSK – 2M Lion service, voyage 106E

  • MSC GIULIA – Indus Express service, voyage IU107R

  • ADRIAN MAERSK – 2M America service, voyage 107E

Vessels northbound waiting at anchor:

  • MSC ERICA – 2M Shogun service, voyage QH108W

  • CONTI EVEREST – Australia Express service, voyage MA107R

  • MSC RIFAYA – 2M Albatross service, voyage FB108W

  • MSC BENEDETTA – Himalaya Express service, voyage IS109R

  • MSC OSCAR – 2M Tiger service, voyage FT107W

  • LE HAVRE – NWC to IPAK service, voyage IP110R

  • EBBA MAERSK – 2M Condor service, voyage 109W

  • MUNKEBO MAERSK – 2M Griffin service, voyage 109W

  • MARY MAERSK – 2M Silk service, voyage 108W

HAPAG LLOYD更新

Rerouted via Cape of Good Hope:

  • “HMM Dublin”, DP: 262200, (FE2 Service)

  • “HMM Stockholm”, DP: 265016, (FE3 Service)

  • “HMM Rotterdam”, DP: 265000, (FE3 Service)

  • “ONE Munchen”, DP: 263268, (EC4 Service)

  • “YM Wellhead”, DP: 263285, (EC4 Service)

  • “ONE Marvel”, DP: 265224, (EC5 Service)

Currently, the following Hapag-Lloyd vessels are affected:

  • “Tsingtao Express” waiting in outer anchorage in Port Said (IOS Service)

  • “Salahuddin” waiting in outer anchorage in Port Said (MD2 Service)

  • “Athenian” waiting in outer anchorage in Port Said (TPI Service)

  • “Al Rawdah” scheduled to reach Suez Canal tonight (IOS Service)

  • “New York Express” locked in at Great Bitter Lake (MD1)

  • “Warnow Master” waiting in outer anchorage in Suez (FE4)

  • “Tokyo Bay” (IEX Port Said)

  • “Barzan” (FE2 Suez)

  • “Laila” (FE4 Port Said)

MAERSK更新
Redirected vessels - latest overview

TP17

Eastbound

MSK

Maersk Algol

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP11

Eastbound

MSK

Maersk Skarstind

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP16

Eastbound

MSC

MSC Bilbao

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP16

Eastbound

MSC

Bremen

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

AE5

Eastbound

MSK

Merete Maersk

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

AE10

Eastbound

MSK

Madison Maersk

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP11

Eastbound

MSK

Maersk Santana

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP12

Eastbound

MSK

Gunhilde Maersk

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

AE10

Westbound

MSK

MAGLEBY MAERSK

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

AE6

Westbound

MSC

MSC AMSTERDAM

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

AE7

Westbound

MSK

ELLY MAERSK

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

AE55

Westbound

MSK

MARCHEN MAERSK

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP17

Westbound

MSK

ARNOLD MAERSK

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

TP11

Westbound

MSK

MAERSK KOWLOON

Routed around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa

Vessel at or en route to Suez - latest overview

600 MECL

MAERSK DENVER

Salalah

Algeciras

moved back to anchorage

22-Mar-2021

435 AE1-TP6

MAERSK ESMERALDAS

Port Tangier

Salalah

stuck inside convoy

06-Mar-2021

404 ME3

SANTA CRUZ

Jeddah

Port Said East

awaiting at anchorage

23-Mar-2021

600 MECL

MAERSK SELETAR

Port Said East

Djibouti

awaiting at anchorage

16-Mar-2021

442 AE12

MAERSK HANOI

Port Said East

King Abdullah

awaiting at anchorage

15-Mar-2021

431 AE5

MSC RIFAYA

Tanjung Pelepas

Rotterdam

awaiting at anchorage

24-Mar-2021

435 AE1-TP6

MSC ERICA

Colombo

Felixstowe

awaiting at anchorage

21-Mar-2021

E3X NEU-WCA EXTRALOADER

MAERSK OHIO

Salalah

Antwerp

awaiting at anchorage

24-Mar-2021

433 AE6-TP2

GEORG MAERSK

Algeciras

Singapore

awaiting at anchorage

06-Mar-2021

757 TP17

ADRIAN MAERSK

Freeport

Tanjung Pelepas

awaiting at anchorage

10-Mar-2021

445 AE15

MSC OSCAR

King Abdullah

Port Said East

awaiting at anchorage

15-Mar-2021

437 AE7

EBBA MAERSK

Colombo

Port Tangier

awaiting at anchorage

25-Mar-2021

455 AE55 MED-NEU HYBRID

MUNKEBO MAERSK

Tanjung Pelepas

Rotterdam

awaiting at anchorage

24-Mar-2021

405 ME2

S SANTIAGO

Salalah

Port Tangier

awaiting at anchorage

25-Mar-2021

409 ME6

CAP SAN SOUNIO

Port Said East

Jeddah

awaiting at anchorage

26-Mar-2021

455 AE55 MED-NEU HYBRID

MSC ISTANBUL

Port Tangier

Singapore

en route Suez

19-Mar-2021

431 AE5

MUNICH MAERSK

Port Tangier

Singapore

en route Suez

25-Mar-2021

433 AE6-TP2

MSC RAPALLO

Tanjung Pelepas

Sines

en route Suez

26-Mar-2021

442 AE12

MAERSK HAMBURG

Singapore

Port Said East

en route Suez

21-Mar-2021

441 AE11

MSC MIA

Port Said East

King Abdullah

under port rotation

26-Mar-2021

432 AE10

MAJESTIC MAERSK

Rotterdam

Tanjung Pelepas

en route Suez

25-Mar-2021

437 AE7

EUGEN MAERSK

Port Tangier

Salalah

en route Suez

21-Mar-2021

757 TP17

AXEL MAERSK

Singapore

Newark

en route Suez

24-Mar-2021

445 AE15

MSC MIRJAM

Piraeus

King Abdullah

under port rotation

19-Mar-2021

751 TP11

GSL GRANIA

Savannah

Tanjung Pelepas

en route Suez

23-Mar-2021

441 AE11

MSC AMBRA

Singapore

Port Said East

en route Suez

18-Mar-2021

404 ME3

MAERSK KALMAR

Port Said East

Jeddah

under port rotation

28-Mar-2021

405 ME2

MAERSK UTAH

Genoa Vado

Jeddah

en route Suez

28-Mar-2021

435 AE1-TP6

MSC AURORA

Colombo

Felixstowe

en route Suez

28-Mar-2021

409 ME6

MAERSK GIBRALTAR

Jeddah

Port Said East

under port rotation

28-Mar-2021

600 MECL

MAERSK KINLOSS

Salalah

Algeciras

under port rotation

29-Mar-2021

600 MECL

MAERSK SENTOSA

Port Said East

Djibouti

under port rotation

30-Mar-2021

404 ME3

MAERSK KAMPALA

Jeddah

Port Said East

under port rotation

30-Mar-2021

437 AE7

MONACO MAERSK

Port Tangier

Salalah

under port rotation

28-Mar-2021

431 AE5

MAREN MAERSK

Tanjung Pelepas

Rotterdam

en route Suez

31-Mar-2021

435 AE1-TP6

MAERSK EDIRNE

Port Tangier

Salalah

under port rotation

13-Mar-2021

445 AE15

MSC ZOE

King Abdullah

Port Said East

under port rotation

29-Mar-2021

405 ME2

MAERSK GIRONDE

Salalah

Newark

under port rotation

01-Apr-2021

409 ME6

MAERSK GUAYAQUIL

Port Said East

Jeddah

under port rotation

02-Apr-2021

441 AE11

MSC DIANA

Singapore

Port Said East

en route Suez

01-Apr-2021

442 AE12

MAERSK HOUSTON

Port Said East

King Abdullah

under port rotation

22-Mar-2021

435 AE1-TP6

MSC FRANCESCA

Port Tangier

Salalah

under port rotation

20-Mar-2021

445 AE15

MSC TINA

Piraeus

King Abdullah

under port rotation

26-Mar-2021

404 ME3

MAERSK KYRENIA

Port Said East

Jeddah

under port rotation

04-Apr-2021

441 AE11

MSC NELA

Port Said East

King Abdullah

under port rotation

02-Apr-2021

409 ME6

MAERSK GUATEMALA

Jeddah

Port Said East

under port rotation

04-Apr-2021

442 AE12

MAERSK HAVANA

Singapore

Port Said East

en route Suez

04-Apr-2021

405 ME2

OAKLAND

Genoa Vado

Jeddah

under port rotation

04-Apr-2021

433 AE6-TP2

MSC BETTINA

Algeciras

Singapore

under port rotation

13-Mar-2021

600 MECL

MAERSK KENSINGTON

Salalah

Algeciras

under port rotation

05-Apr-2021

E3X NEU-WCA EXTRALOADER

E.R. BERLIN

Rotterdam

Salalah

under port rotation

600 MECL

MAERSK CHICAGO

Port Said East

Djibouti

under port rotation

06-Apr-2021