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育人情怀润学子

精心教书 潜心科研

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用勤奋和创新描绘精彩人生

本期学术成果专题挑选了2021年发表在国际一类和国内权威A期刊上的论文，一起来回顾精彩吧。

1

出版：2021年3月

期刊| Games and Economic Behavior

论文题目| Moral Hazard with Limited Liability: Random-Variable Formulation and Optimal Contract Structures Games and Economic Behavior

该论文由王文斌等合作发表

论文摘要

This paper studies the optimal contract for a risk-neutral agency with limited liability. We introduce a novel formulation of the model, in which the contract design problem reduces to a problem of constructing the distribution function of a random variable. This formulation directly balances the principal's tradeoff between incentivizing the agent to exert proper effort and minimizing the cost of the agent's compensation. We show that the optimal contract may involve one or two tiers of performance-based bonuses. We obtain new sufficient conditions for the optimality of bonus contracts and provide new insights into the choice of contract parameters.

2

出版：2021年3月

期刊| Management Science

论文题目| The Bigger Picture: Combining Econometrics with Analytics Improves Forecasts of Movie Success

该论文由谢天等合作发表

论文摘要

There exists significant hype regarding how much machine learning and incorporating social media data can improve forecast accuracy in commercial applications. To assess if the hype is warranted, we use data from the film industry in simulation experiments that contrast econometric approaches with tools from the predictive analytics literature. Further, we propose new strategies that combine elements from each literature in a bid to capture richer patterns of heterogeneity in the underlying relationship governing revenue. Our results demonstrate the importance of social media data and value from hybrid strategies that combine econometrics and machine learning when conducting forecasts with new big data sources. Specifically, although both least squares support vector regression and recursive partitioning strategies greatly outperform dimension reduction strategies and traditional econometrics approaches in forecast accuracy, there are further significant gains from using hybrid approaches. Further, Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that these benefits arise from the significant heterogeneity in how social media measures and other film characteristics influence box office outcomes.

3

出版：2021年4月

期刊|Journal of International Business Studies

论文题目| Dealing with dynamic endogeneity in international business research

该论文由丁浩员等合作发表

论文摘要

Dynamic endogeneity occurs when the current values of a study’s independent variables are affected by the past values of the dependent variables, which can lead to biased estimates. Our analysis of 80 empirical papers published in the Journal of International Business Studies uncovers cases of inappropriate treatment of dynamic endogeneity. Our simulations reveal factors that lead to bias in a fixed effects estimator and highlight the advantages and disadvantages of the system generalized method of moments estimator. We demonstrate our points with an empirical study of the impact of the international experience of managers and board members on firm internationalization. We show how using a fixed effects estimator rather than a generalized method of moments estimator can lead to differences in regression results. We also show the proper use of a generalized method of moments estimator.

4

出版：2021年5月

期刊|Management Science

论文题目| Joint vs. Separate Crowdsourcing Contests

该论文由王璐等合作发表

论文摘要

In a crowdsourcing contest, innovation is outsourced by a firm to an open crowd that competes in generating innovative solutions. Given that the projects typically consist of multiple attributes, how should the firm optimally design a crowdsourcing contest for such a project? We consider two alternative mechanisms. One is a joint contest, where the best solution is chosen from the joint solutions across attributes submitted by all contestants. The other is multiple separate parallel subcontests, with each dedicated to one attribute of the project. It is intuitive that the separate contest has the advantage of potentially creating a “cooperative” final solution contributed by different contestants. However, somewhat surprisingly, we show that the separate contest may reduce the incentive for the crowd to exert effort, resulting in the joint contest becoming the optimal scheme. The comparison of the expected best performances in the two contests depends on the project’s characteristics. For example, if contestants’ performances have a sufficiently high (respectively, low) level of randomness, the separate (respectively, joint) contest is optimal. If the number of contestants is large (respectively, small) enough, the separate (respectively, joint) contest is optimal. Moreover, we find that when the prize is endogenized, the optimal amount of the prize in the joint contest is no less than that in the separate contest. Finally, we extend the model to account for contestants with heterogeneous types.

5

出版：2021年7月

期刊|Journal of International Economics

论文题目| Headquarters gravity: How multinationals shape international trade

该论文由王子独立发表

论文摘要

Multinational firms, using their foreign affiliates as export platforms, are the largest players in international trade. The exporting behaviors of these multinationals differ systematically from those of local firms: Using the Chinese customs data, I find that the Chinese affiliates of foreign multinationals bias their exports towards the markets close to their headquarters. I incorporate this headquarters gravity into a general equilibrium model by, as in Head and Mayer (2019), allowing the export costs faced by multinational affiliates to depend on the proximity between headquarter and destination countries. To draw its aggregate implications, I calibrate my model to the Chinese customs data and perform counterfactual exercises, finding that (i) headquarters gravity accounts for about 20% of the Chinese exports in the early 2000s, and (ii) ignoring headquarters gravity would substantially bias our quantitative evaluation of trade shocks like the recent US-China trade war. I also consider the scenario in which the Chinese customs data on multinational sales is unavailable. I demonstrate the usefulness of my model in this scenario by constructing exact bounds on counterfactual results using only bilateral trade and multinational production (MP) data.

6

在线发表：2021年7月

期刊| Production and Operations Management

论文题目| Mitigating Product Quality Risk under External Financial Pressure: Inspection, Insurance, and Cash/Collateralized Loan

该论文由魏航，谢磊等合作发表

论文摘要

We consider a single-period manufacturing problem wherein a risk-neutral manufacturer procures product components from an upstream supplier. Component quality is uncertain. Dysfunctional components result in defective products associated with an external failure cost. There is external financing pressure related to financial stress. The manufacturer can use the internal cash-flow and a collateralized loan to manage product quality risk through incoming inspection, business insurance, and cash hoard. We find that there is no cash hoard if a collateralized loan is used, and the cash hoard's value increases as external financing pressure decreases. Interestingly, more initial internal cash-flow does not always lead to more investments in inspection and insurance. We also find that business insurance may improve a manufacturer's inspection effort. Finally, we reveal that, as the initial internal cash-flow increases, inspection and insurance first substitute and then complement each other.

7

出版：2021年9月

期刊| Management Science

论文题目| Consumer Boycotts, Country of Origin, and Product Competition: Evidence from China′s Automobile Market

该论文由孙琦、吴芳等合作发表

论文摘要

Triggered by a territorial dispute as well as historical animosity, a nationwide civilian boycott of Japanese products took place in China in the summer of 2012. Using detailed data on vehicle sales in four major Chinese cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Nanjing), this study investigates the impact of boycotts on sales and advertising effectiveness of products from different countries of origin. The boycott dramatically reduced the market share of Japanese brands and benefitted Chinese and non-Japanese foreign brands. Consumer switching to other brands accounted for the majority of the loss in sales. Advertising became less effective for Japanese brands during the boycott but more effective for non-Japanese brands, especially at the parent-brand level (e.g., Toyota) than sub-brand level (e.g., Camry). The sales impacts were strongest in Nanjing, the city that had the most atrocious war experience with Japan during the Battle of Nanjing in 1937, and weakest in Beijing, where local government agencies explicitly discouraged public demonstrations. Finally, although the decline in sales of Japanese brands did not vary by quality or production location, competing non-Japanese brands that were had better quality or were manufactured locally benefitted more.

8

出版：2021年11月

期刊| Production and Operations Management

论文题目| Add-On Pricing in a Distribution Channel

该论文由殷倩波等合作发表

论文摘要

We consider add-on pricing in a distribution channel where a retailer sells a base good and an add-on, supplied by two manufacturers, respectively, to consumers. The retailer decides whether to sell the two products through either bundling or add-on pricing and sets the corresponding retail prices. Under add-on pricing, the add-on price is unobservable to consumers when they make the purchase decision of the base good. Each manufacturer, if independent of the retailer, sets the wholesale price. Under four channel structures differed by whether either manufacturer is independent of the retailer, we specify the scenario that is optimal for the retailer to adopt add-on pricing and show the contrasting impact from the two manufacturers. When all three firms are integrated, the retailer in general prefers add-on pricing to bundling when the cost of base good is low and the cost of add-on is high. Using this case as the benchmark, we show that add-on pricing is more (less) likely to be adopted when the add-on (base) manufacturer is independent, and add-on pricing is again more likely to be adopted when all three firms are independent. In addition to the demand smoothing effect of bundling, we identify two drivers from the supply side: the margin squeezing effect of bundling from the add-on manufacturer and the margin smoothing effect of bundling from the base manufacturer, where the former encourages add-on pricing whereas the latter discourages it. The interplay of these drivers largely influences the retailer's add-on strategy and renders the preceding results. Several extensions are discussed, including correlated consumer valuations of base good and add-on, an alternate decision sequence, knowledgeable consumers (about add-on price), simultaneous offering of bundling and add-on pricing, and bilateral monopoly.

9

2021年第1期

期刊| 管理世界

作者| 王新新，高俊(学)，冯林燕(学)，汤筱晓(学)等合作发表

论文题目| 弱主动服务行为的概念、影响及机制研究

论文摘要

本文以5个典型餐饮和酒店品牌的顾客在大众点评平台的评论作为主要数据来源,采用扎根理论的质性研究方法,研究行业中实际存在却并未引起理论关注的问题——主动服务悖论。研究发现:(1)弱主动服务行为是有效避免服务冗余、解决悖论的服务类型,这一新概念的核心特征是自发性、准确性和共情性,指员工是在服务过程中侧面地准确了解到顾客潜在需求后,站在顾客立场,为顾客提供适宜的、细腻的主动服务;(2)弱主动服务行为能为顾客创造更高层次的情感体验即无预期惊喜,这一影响的中介机制是顾客自尊的提升;(3)弱主动服务行为的效应最终促使品牌与顾客形成了具有中国文化意境的"关系"(guanxi),即顾客品牌缘分,包括品牌投缘、品牌类亲缘、品牌惜缘3个维度。本文研究成果提出了一系列新的概念和观点,为解决主动服务悖论提供了理论和实践启示。

10

2021年第3期

期刊| 管理科学学报

作者| 车维汉，夏方杰(学)等合作发表

论文题目|全球价值链贸易网络分析与国际风险传导应对

论文摘要

在全球化生产不断演进的背景下，参与国际分工各国在共享分工福利的同时，如何避免外部世界的冲击？关于这一问题，若从一国所处的与其他国家的价值链贸易网络的视角给予考察，或许能够得到一些答案。本文基于2000年~2014年世界投入产出数据，研究发现全球价值链贸易网络具有“小世界现象”和“无标度特性”等复杂网络性质，且整个网络的演化是一个循序渐进的过程。接着指出，在全球生产网络分析框架下，一国可通过强化其在全球价值链贸易网络中的集约性和广延性特征，实现自身重要程度的提高，弱化来自外部波动的影响。最后，从进口(投入)和出口(产出)两个方向对上述结论给予验证，即一国可通过增加上下游贸易对象数量并降低贸易强度分布集中度，做广做均全球外贸发展布局，弱化内外部之间风险互相传导的冲击，稳健全球价值链贸易网络。

11

2021年第2期

期刊| 经济学季刊

作者| 蔡琦晟(学)等合作发表

论文题目|进口贸易自由化与中国企业创新 ———基于企业专利数量和质量的证据

论文摘要

本文基于中国专利数据库、工业企业数据库和海关数据库，利用企业的专利数量、种类和被引用数描绘中国企业创新的数量与质量，考察进口贸易自由化对我国企业创新能力的影响。研究表明：进口贸易自由化总体上促进了我国企业创新的质与量；中间产品关税下降通过成本降低效应和技术溢出效应，显著地促进了中国企业的创新能力；最终品关税下降对企业创新的影响存在选择效应，抑制生产率水平较低以及行业竞争水平较高的企业的创新能力。

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供稿 | 商学院学科科研办公室

责编 | 张宜杰 审核 | 刘益如 沈梦雪