《海洋预报》| 中国沿海40年台风风暴潮特征研究|东海|中国沿海|台风风暴潮|强台风|海域|海洋预报

中国沿海40年台风风暴潮特征研究

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作者：付翔1 2 梁森栋1 郭洪琳1 李明杰1 叶琳1

单位：1. 国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081;
2. 国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室, 北京 100081

分类号：P731.23

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2023·40·第六期（1-11）

摘要：统计分析了1980—2019年间影响我国沿海的400多次台风风暴潮过程，从增水和超警戒潮位两个方面研究其时空分布特征。结果表明：我国沿海最大增水2 m以上的大台风风暴潮过程数及其波动幅度有增加的趋势，近十年增加频次显著，同时弱台风风暴潮过程也有增加，并呈现两级分化的态势；增水年极值整体呈增加趋势；造成40年台风增水极值的台风有近一半出现在最近十年，极有可能说明近十年影响我国的强台风有增强的态势；浙南闽北地区是出现超警过程最多的地区，但大的台风风暴潮过程数少于珠江口和雷州半岛东岸，这两个地区也是台风风暴潮危险性最高的地区。

关键词：台风风暴潮增水超警时空分布

Abstract：Statistical analysis of temporal and spatial characteristics of tropical storm surges(TSS) has been conducted for more than 400 events affecting the coastal area of China in 1980-2019. It is shown that the number and variation amplitude of severe TSS event with maximum residual value exceeding 2 meters have an increasing trend during the past 40 years, especially in the past decade. Meanwhile, the number of weak TSS event has increased. The annual extreme TSS also increased in the past 40 years. In the past 40 years, nearly 50%of the typhoons which cause extreme surges appeared in the last decade, which is likely to indicate that the strong typhoons affecting the coastal area of China are increasing. Over-warning-threshold TSS events occurred in the southern Zhejiang and northern Fujian Province, but number of extreme surges in these two regions is smaller than that in the Pearl River Estuary and the East Bank of Leizhou Peninsula, where own the highest risk of TSS hazard.

Key words：tropical storm surge；surge value；over-warning-threshold；temporal and spatial distribution