SFC Outlook 2026｜Erik Solheim: "New Quality Productive Forces" Will Matter f...|ahead|help|outlook|productive|with|work

By Li Yinong, Yang Yulai, SFC, 21st Century Business Herald

Editor’s Note:

As the world moves toward 2026, multiple economic cycles and structural shifts are converging. Global growth remains uneven, inflation and monetary policy paths are uncertain, and geopolitical tensions and industrial realignments continue to reshape the international order. At the same time, China enters the starting phase of 15th Five-Year Plan, with implications that extend well beyond its borders.

SFC Outlook 2026: Global Crossroadsbrings together distinguished economists, scholars, investors and political figures to assess the global economy, financial markets, the evolving world order, and China’s development at this critical juncture. Through in-depth conversations and forward-looking perspectives, the series offers a comprehensive outlook on the forces shaping the years ahead.

As 2025 draws to a close, China stands at a pivotal moment between the conclusion of its 14th Five-Year Plan and the formulation of the 15th. Amid rising global uncertainty, how China charts its next stage of development has drawn growing international attention.

“In this historic period, new quality productive forces will be the key words for China,” said Erik Solheim, former United Nations Under-Secretary-General, in an exclusive interview with SFC. Drawing on his long-term observation of China’s development, Solheim shared his views on China’s modernization path, green transition, and role in the global economy.

Having followed China’s environmental and green development for many years, Solheim offered a clear assessment: China has become an indispensable driver of the global green transition. From solar panels and electric vehicles to batteries and wind power equipment, he noted, China now provides some of the world’s most cost-effective and technologically advanced green solutions—making it difficult for any country to pursue decarbonization without engaging with China.

Looking ahead, Solheim sees broad potential for closer China–Europe cooperation, particularly in the green economy. While Europe once led the sector, he argued, China has now moved to the forefront. Encouraging Chinese companies to invest and operate in Europe, he said, could create local jobs while strengthening Europe’s own green industrial capacity.

Reflecting more broadly on China’s development, Solheim described the country’s rapid growth as a “public common good for humanity,” underscoring his belief that global challenges—from climate change to development and peace—can only be addressed through cooperation rather than division.

Against this backdrop, Solheim’s reflections offer an external perspective on how China’s development logic is evolving as it enters a new planning cycle—one increasingly defined by innovation, sustainability, and global engagement.

There are three main phases in China’s modernization

SFC Markets and Finance: To start with, can you share with us what brings you to Guangzhou this time and what impressed you most so far?

Erik Solheim: Guangdong is the most advanced industrial and technological area of the world both in the digital and the green economy with major companies like BYD, Tencent, Huawei, and DJI. But this time, I also made a visit to Meizhou, where I haven't been before. Wonderful place, center for the Hakka culture and also the hometown of Marshal Ye Jianying, who played such a critical role in modern Chinese history.

SFC Markets and Finance: We know the world today is facing a lot of uncertainties. Against that background, what do you think the world and the international community most need to understand and know about China?

Erik Solheim: Look, China is an ancient civilization with so much to offer. If you ask what is most important to understand, I think it's understanding that the rise of China has been very peaceful. China has not been into any war since the 1970s, and it's not threatening anyone and that China is now an indispensable nation for the green transition. If you want to go green, no one can really do it without China because China is providing the cheapest and best solar panels, electric cars, basically all green technologies.

SFC Markets and Finance: There's also a lot of focus on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, and people want to know what China's future will bring to the world. So what's your take on that?

Erik Solheim: As I said, there are three main phases in the modernization of China. And first, starting in 1978 with Deng Xiaoping, enormous focus on economic development, growth, growth and growth to bring everyone out of poverty. Then, the second phase, starting in 2012, which was green growth. We need to continue with the growth, but it must be green, it must be beautiful China, ecological civilization.

And now another step forward, making China the lead industrial and technological power of the world. The key phrase of the new Five-Year Plan is the newquality productive forces, which we understand as the green economy and the digital economy and also biological and medicine economy. There are more, but these two are the most important, the digital and the green.

Chinahas been ahead in green economy around the world

SFC Markets and Finance: You observed a lot about China's green transition. So what is one of the most outstanding of China's achievement in green transition that the world needs to pay attention to?

Erik Solheim: Let me just give you one example. I just came here from Chengdu where I visited Tongwei which is the number one solar company in the world. Tongwei is making more solar cells over Europe to combine, even double. So one year of Tongwei is double one year of Europe. And there are many more solar companies that China is totally dominant in solar energy, which will be the future dominant energy in the world.

China is also dominating electric batteries. We see CATL in Fujian province, BYD, it's the number one electric car maker here in Guangdong, so China is really dominating all green sectors. But electric cars, batteries and solar may be the most important.

SFC Markets and Finance: So can you elaborate on what green transitions you see in Guangdong or broadly to say the Greater Bay Area?

Erik Solheim: I think there are two main areas. One is all the green technologies. Guangdong or the Greater Bay Area is really the high-tech center of China and the world, where we will also see the digital and the green economy merge. Because if they merge, we will get a much more efficient green economy, and we will also get digital economy fueled by solar and wind. So it will be very, very efficient.

Just in Guangdong, the largest windmills in the world has been launched. One windmill is 50 MW. People may not understand how big that is, but that's enormous. It means that windmills will make one GWh of renewable energy. So the technological development of Guangdong is maybe the most important, but in the other side it's also a very beautiful province with a very beautiful nature and really living up to the slogan, beautiful China to protect the environment, to plant trees, and to also protect the great culture heritage of China.

SFC Markets and Finance: The Global South is also advancing its green transitions. So what lessons and experiences they can learn from China?

Erik Solheim: I think the most important to understand from China is the philosophy.Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets, or green is gold, meaning that if you go green, you also go prosperous.

It's no longer a choice between ecology and economy. We can do both. Understanding that there is not a cost to go green, it's an opportunity for jobs, for prosperity. And these days to switch from coal to solar is not a cost, it's cost saving. That philosophy is the most important for all other developing nations to understand Africa or developing nations in Latin America or Asia. If they go green, they will also go prosperous.

Interestingly, one of the giants in the world which has embraced this is the other leader of the Global South, the other giant nation, India. India’s Prime Minister Modi is also fully on board on this, saying that if India goes green, it will also bring every Indian out of poverty.

Europe and China need to work together more

SFC Markets and Finance: So there's also a lot of room for cooperation between China and Europe, right?

Erik Solheim: Absolutely, Europe should do a lot more to invite Chinese companies to come there. 10 years ago, Europe was ahead of China when it comes to the green economy. Now China is ahead of Europe, so it is time for Europe to invite Chinese companies to share their technology, invite them to share the battery technology, the electric car technology, the solar technology that will provide jobs in Europe and will also help European nations improve their technology. So while in the past, China mainly learn from Europe and the United States, now it's the opposite situation. Europe can mainly learn from China in the green economy.

SFC Markets and Finance: So you are optimistic for the future cooperation between China and Europe on these sector, right?

Erik Solheim: I have a very simple worldview. If we work together, we can solve all major problems in the world, climate change, green economy, bringing everyone out of poverty, giving education to everyone, avoiding future pandemics, stopping the war in Ukraine and Gaza, or Sudan, everything is possible if we work together.

However, if we are divided, we are much weaker. Every problem is much more difficult to resolve, and that's why Europe and China really need to work together. But of course, not just Europe and China. We need to work with United States, with India and everyone else also.

SFC Markets and Finance: What areas you think the world needs dialogues and more negotiations right now?

Erik Solheim: We need dialogue for peace to stop the wars in Ukraine, in Gaza, in Sudan, and it's much easier to resolve this war if we work together. We need dialogue to make sure that we can restart economic growth and development in the world, so we can bring everyone out of poverty, if we work together. And we need dialogue to resolve climate and environment issues so that growth is green and we are not harming planet Earth,for destroying the one planet we have together, would be a shame, even a crime.

New quality productive forces willbethe key word for China

SFC Markets and Finance: We are at the end of the 2025. So what words would you use to describe your impression of China this year?

Erik Solheim: I think the most important catch this year is the new quality productive forces. It was not discussed much in the past, and it's the new ambition for China.

First, China brings everyone out of poverty. Second, bringing a green economy. And third, bringing a high productive, high tech economy. But it should be shared with everyone else.

For example, then Deepseek made breakthrough in the artificial intelligence. They made the platform available for everyone, which means that you run a business in Cameroon, in Africa, or in Paraguay, in Latin America. You can use this platform to drive your business that's sharing digital economy with everyone. And China can help set up data centers, provide expertise and knowledge, and help drive a digital economy which is available for everyone.

The moment, basically, only China and the United States, which is driving the digital economy, but it can help make it available to everyone else, as in the green economy, we need more Chinese green investments.

SFC Markets and Finance: Looking ahead, what's your prospect of China's economic development and growth, especially under the AI development and the green transitions?

Erik Solheim: Enormous economic development of China.The first time I came here, it was a very, very pure country. There were no skyscrapers, no private cars, no metros, basically, and everyone was living very, very poor lives. There's enormous growth for China has been a huge public common good for humanity because it helps many other nations also to grow. So we should really give credit to China for this.

But it also made China extremely competitive in all industries to an extent where basically many other nations struggle to compete with China.

So what China needs to do is to invest more abroad to help Europe or Africa or Latin America or India create jobs in their destinations. But over time, it will benefit the Chinese economy because if you invest abroad, it will also come back in many different ways in your own economy. And for China to invest abroad, other nations need to roll out the red carpet for Chinese investment.

SFC Markets and Finance: Do you think the new quality productive forces will still be the key words for China moving forward?

Erik Solheim: I think in these historic period, it will be the key words.