作者：马斯克
来源：财经会议圈
主持人：That was not a large applause. Start again. That's better. Thank you. Yeah, we're going to make this interesting. How many quotes are you going to want after this session? I don't know. Five? Okay. So good afternoon, everyone. It's great to see everybody here. It's been an amazing week here in Davos. Hopefully, everybody saw that we are having meaningful conversations here. Hopefully, everybody agrees that there are some conversations where we may disagree, and many where we may agree. But through those conversations—and I think today's result with a peace agreement earlier today—the World Economic Forum is here to foster these conversations, to build understandings and also reach resolutions. So this is an important component of who we are and what we do.
主持人：刚才的掌声不够热烈，再来一次。这样就对了，谢谢大家。接下来我们聊点有意思的。会后你们需要整理多少句语录？不知道？五句？好的。各位下午好，很高兴能和大家相聚在这里。达沃斯的这一周精彩纷呈，希望大家都能感受到，我们在这里开展的都是有意义的交流。或许在一些话题上我们有分歧，更多话题上能达成共识，但希望大家都认同这份交流的价值。而今天早些时候，我们还达成了一项和平协议 —— 这正是世界经济论坛的意义所在：推动对话、凝聚共识、促成解决。这是我们的立身之本，也是我们的核心使命。
主持人：I'm thrilled to have Elon Musk here. He came all the way from California to be here with all of you. So thank you, Elon. You're welcome. I heard about the formation of the peace summit, and I thought, is that a piece? A little piece of Greenland? A tiny piece? Well, we got one. Oh, we want his piece, okay.
主持人：我非常荣幸邀请到埃隆・马斯克来到现场，他从加州远道而来，与大家相聚。谢谢你，埃隆，欢迎你。我听说和平峰会的成立消息时，还打趣道，这是哪一块 “碎片”？是格陵兰的一小块土地吗？一小块？好吧，我们总算有了这么一个平台，也想听听马斯克的独到见解。
主持人：As you know, I'm pretty proud to be the CEO of BlackRock since we went public. The compounded return of BlackRock for our shareholders has been 21 percent. Since Elon took Tesla public, its compounded return is 43 percent. This is just another advertisement for everyone, especially for Europeans—this is why more citizens should be investing in growth, investing in your countries. Imagine if a lot of pension funds had invested with Elon when Tesla went public, and how much return all those pension funds would have earned by investing side by side with Elon in that growth.
主持人：大家都知道，作为贝莱德上市以来的 CEO，我对此深感自豪。贝莱德为股东带来的复合年回报率达到了 21%，而埃隆带领特斯拉上市后，公司的复合年回报率高达 43%。我想借着这个数据跟大家说，尤其是欧洲的朋友们，这就是为什么更多民众应该做成长型投资，投资自己的国家。试想，如果众多养老基金在特斯拉上市时就选择跟投埃隆，这些基金如今能获得多么丰厚的回报。
主持人：It's a spectacular return. There are very few companies, well, I don't think there's any other company as large as Tesla today that has such compounded returns. So congratulations. I like a good measurement. Well, we have incredible teams, and that is the reason for success.
主持人：这样的回报率堪称惊艳，如今体量能与特斯拉比肩的企业中，没有一家能实现如此高的复合回报。恭喜你，埃隆。我向来看重数据结果，而优秀的团队，正是成就一切的核心。
主持人：So I want to get into the real, meaningful part about technology and its possibilities. I want to talk about AI, robotics, energy, space, and the progress that ultimately comes down to engineering, engineering discipline, scale, and execution. Very few people, if anyone, has the experience and the fortitude to confront these issues—not just the ideas, but the execution across so many different technologies. That's why I thought it important for us to have this dialogue here in Davos.
主持人：接下来，我们聊聊科技的真正价值和未来可能。我想和大家探讨人工智能、机器人、能源、航天领域的发展，而这些领域的突破，最终都离不开工程技术、工程准则、规模化生产和落地执行。放眼全球，极少有人能拥有这样的经验和毅力，不仅能提出跨领域的科技构想，更能将其一一落地。这也是我认为我们需要在达沃斯展开这场对话的原因。
主持人：You're presently building in AI, robotics, space, and energy all at the same time. When you look across those efforts, what do they have in common from an engineering standpoint?
主持人：你如今同时布局人工智能、机器人、航天、能源四大领域，从工程技术的角度来看，这些领域的研发有哪些共通之处？
埃隆・马斯克：Well, they're all practical technology challenges. But the overall goal of my companies is to maximize the future of civilization—basically, to maximize the probability that civilization has a great future—and to expand consciousness beyond Earth. For SpaceX, for example, it's about advancing rocket technology to the point where we can extend life and consciousness beyond Earth, to the Moon, to Mars, and eventually to other star systems.
埃隆・马斯克：它们本质上都是实际的技术难题，但我旗下所有公司的核心目标是一致的：推动人类文明走向更好的未来，尽可能提升人类文明持续发展的概率，同时让人类的意识走出地球，走向宇宙。以太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）为例，我们的使命就是不断突破火箭技术，让人类的生命和意识能延伸到地球之外，先登上月球、火星，最终抵达其他恒星系统。
埃隆・马斯克：I think we should always view life and consciousness as we know it as precarious and delicate, because to the best of our knowledge, we don't know if life exists anywhere else. I'm often asked if there are aliens among us, and I'll say that I am one. But when I say I'm from the future, they don't believe me. Okay. But if anyone would know if there are aliens among us, it would be me. We have 9,000 satellites up there, and not once have we had to maneuver around an alien spaceship. So I'm like, I don't know.
埃隆・马斯克：在我看来，我们必须始终意识到，人类所知的生命和意识，其实脆弱又珍贵。因为就目前的认知而言，我们并不知道宇宙中是否还有其他生命存在。总有人问我，地球上有没有外星人，我会开玩笑说 “我就是”，但当我说自己来自未来时，没人相信我。但如果说有谁能知道地球是否有外星人，那一定是我 —— 我们在太空中部署了 9000 颗卫星，却从未需要为躲避外星飞船而调整轨道，所以我也无从得知答案。
埃隆・马斯克：The bottom line is I think we need to assume that life and consciousness are extremely rare, and it might only be us. If that's the case, then we need to do everything possible to ensure that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. I view it as a tiny candle in a vast darkness—a tiny candle of consciousness that could easily go out. That's why it's important to make life multiplanetary, such that if there is a natural disaster or man-made disaster on Earth, consciousness continues. That's the purpose of SpaceX.
埃隆・马斯克：归根结底，我们必须假设，生命和意识在宇宙中是极其稀有的，或许只有人类拥有。如果真是如此，我们就必须拼尽全力，让这束意识的光芒永不熄灭。在我眼中，人类的意识就像茫茫黑暗中一支微弱的蜡烛，稍有不慎就会熄灭。这也是为什么实现多行星生存如此重要：当地球遭遇自然或人为灾难时，人类的意识能得以延续。这就是 SpaceX 的存在意义。
埃隆・马斯克：Tesla is obviously about sustainable technology, and at this point, we've sort of added to our mission: sustainable abundance. With robotics and AI, this is really the path to abundance for all. People often talk about solving global poverty or essentially how to give everyone a very high standard of living. I think the only way to do this is with AI and robotics. Which doesn't mean it's without its issues. We need to be very careful with AI, we need to be very careful with robotics. We don't want to find ourselves in a James Cameron movie. The Terminator movies are great, I love his movies, but we don't want to live in The Terminator, obviously.
埃隆・马斯克：特斯拉的核心方向显然是可持续能源技术，而如今我们的使命又增添了一层：实现可持续的物质丰裕。机器人和人工智能技术，正是实现全人类丰裕生活的关键。人们总在谈论消除全球贫困，探讨如何让所有人都拥有高品质的生活，而我认为，实现这一目标的唯一途径，就是人工智能和机器人技术。当然，这并非毫无风险，我们必须对人工智能和机器人技术保持敬畏。我们不想陷入詹姆斯・卡梅隆的电影剧情中 ——《终结者》系列很精彩，我很喜欢，但显然没人想活在那样的世界里。
主持人：But if you have ubiquitous AI that is essentially free or close to it, and ubiquitous robotics, then you will have an explosion in the global economy—an expansion of the global economy that is truly beyond all precedent. Will that expansion be broad, or is it going to be narrow? And how can we make it broad?
主持人：如果人工智能能实现普及，且几乎免费，机器人技术也能全面落地，那么全球经济将迎来爆发式增长，这种增长规模将是前所未有的。但这种增长的红利会惠及所有人，还是只集中在少数人手中？我们该如何让其普惠大众？
埃隆・马斯克：Yeah, the way to think of it is that if you have a large number of humanoid robots, the economic output is the average productivity per robot times the number of robots. My prediction is that in a benign future scenario, we will make so many robots and develop such advanced AI that they will actually satisfy all human needs. Meaning, at a certain point, you won't even be able to think of something to ask the robot to do—there will be such an abundance of goods and services. Because my prediction is there will be more robots than people.
埃隆・马斯克：答案必然是普惠，从逻辑上来说，若有大量人形机器人投入使用，经济产出就是单台机器人的平均生产率乘以机器人数量。我预测，在未来的良性发展场景中，我们会造出数量极多的机器人，研发出高度先进的人工智能，足以满足人类的所有需求。届时，人们甚至想不出还有什么事需要让机器人去做 —— 因为物质和服务会变得极度丰裕，而我预计，未来机器人的数量会超过人类。
埃隆・马斯克：So how do you then find human purpose in that scenario? Well, nothing's perfect. But it is a necessary trade-off: you can't have both work that has to be done and amazing abundance for all. Because if there is work that has to be done, and only some people can do it, then you can't have abundance—it's narrow, exactly. But if you have billions of humanoid robots, and I think there will be, everyone on Earth is going to have one, and going to want one. Who wouldn't want a robot to watch over your kids, take care of your pet? If you have elderly parents, a lot of people say it's very difficult and expensive to take care of them. It's expensive, and there just aren't enough young people to take care of the old people, right? So if you had a robot that could take care of, protect, and assist elderly parents, I think that would be great—an amazing thing to have. And I think we will have those things.
埃隆・马斯克：那在这样的场景下，人类的价值该如何体现？当然，凡事都不完美，但这是一种必要的取舍：你无法既让人类承担必要的劳作，又实现全民的高度丰裕。因为如果有些工作必须有人做，且只有少数人能胜任，那么丰裕的红利就只能集中在少数人手中，必然无法普惠。但如果未来有数十亿台人形机器人 —— 我坚信这一天会到来，地球上的每个人都会拥有一台，也都会想要一台。谁不想要一台能照看孩子、照顾宠物的机器人呢？很多人都有年迈的父母，照顾他们不仅难度大，成本也很高，而且如今年轻劳动力的数量根本不足以照顾所有老人，不是吗？如果有一台机器人能照料、保护、协助年迈的父母，那会是一件无比美好的事，而我相信，这样的机器人终会出现。
埃隆・马斯克：Overall, I'm very optimistic about the future. I think we're headed for a future of amazing abundance, which is very cool. And we are definitely in the most interesting time in history, but I think there are even more interesting times ahead.
埃隆・马斯克：总的来说，我对未来充满乐观。我认为人类正走向一个物质极度丰裕的未来，这真的非常美好。我们如今无疑身处人类历史上最精彩的时代，而我相信，未来会更加精彩。
主持人：Can we join you in this new era and reverse aging, or are we going to see it happen in our lifetime?
主持人：在这个全新的时代，我们能否和你一起实现衰老逆转？我们在有生之年能看到这一技术实现吗？
埃隆・马斯克：I haven't put much time into the aging research stuff, but I do think it is a very solvable problem. I think when we figure out what causes aging, we'll find it's incredibly obvious—it's not a subtle thing. The reason I say it's not subtle is because the cells in your body all age at roughly the same rate. I've never seen someone with an old left arm and a young right arm in my life. So why is that? That means there must be a synchronizing clock—one that synchronizes aging across the 35 trillion cells in your body.
埃隆・马斯克：我并没有在衰老研究领域投入太多时间，但我坚信这是一个完全可以解决的问题。我认为，当我们找到衰老的真正原因时，会发现答案其实无比简单，并非什么复杂的奥秘。我之所以这么说，是因为人体的所有细胞，衰老速度基本一致。我这辈子从没见过有人左胳膊衰老、右胳膊却依旧年轻的情况。为什么会这样？这说明人体中必然存在一个 “同步时钟”，让全身 35 万亿个细胞的衰老进程保持同步。
埃隆・马斯克：There is some benefit to death, by the way. There's a reason why we don't have an extremely long lifespan. Because if people live forever or for a very long time, I think there's some risk of ossification of society—things just getting locked in place. It may become calcified, lacking vibrancy. But that said, do I think we will figure out ways to extend life and maybe even reverse aging? I think that's highly likely. I'm looking forward to that.
埃隆・马斯克：顺便说一句，死亡并非毫无意义，人类的寿命之所以有限，是有其原因的。如果人类实现永生或拥有极长的寿命，社会可能会陷入僵化，一切事物都将停滞不前，失去活力。但即便如此，我依然认为，人类终会找到延长寿命、甚至逆转衰老的方法，而且可能性极高。我对此充满期待。
主持人：The future you talk about—AI models, autonomous machines, rockets—depends on massive increases in compute, massive increases in energy, inexpensive energy, and manufacturing scale. What are the bottlenecks to getting there? And once again, with all that expenditure, how can we make sure that the benefits are broad and not narrow?
主持人：你所描绘的未来 —— 人工智能模型、自主机器、火箭技术，都依赖于算力的大幅提升、能源的海量供应、低成本能源的实现，以及规模化生产。实现这一切的瓶颈是什么？此外，面对如此巨大的投入，我们该如何确保其红利能普惠大众，而非少数人独享？
埃隆・马斯克：I just think it's naturally going to be very broad because AI companies will seek as many customers as they possibly can. And the cost of AI is already very low, and it's dropping every year—almost changing meaningfully on a month-to-month basis. There are open-source models everywhere now, yes. The open-source models only lag the private, closed models by maybe a year. So AI companies will seek as many customers as possible, which means they'll provide AI to the whole world.
埃隆・马斯克：我认为红利必然会普惠大众，因为人工智能企业会竭尽所能吸引更多的客户。如今人工智能的成本已经很低，而且还在逐年下降，甚至每个月都有显著的降幅。现在开源的人工智能模型随处可见，这些开源模型与企业的闭源模型相比，差距仅约一年。所以人工智能企业会不断拓展用户群体，让全球各地的人都能用上人工智能技术。
主持人：But the cost of getting there—the compute, the chips, the fabs, the powering of it all. To me, what are the limiting factors here?
主持人：但要实现这一目标，我们需要面对算力、芯片、晶圆厂、能源供应等诸多成本问题。在你看来，其中最大的瓶颈是什么？
埃隆・马斯克：Yeah, I think the limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power—it's just energy. The rate of AI chip production is increasing exponentially, but the rate of new electricity coming online is only about 4 percent a year. It's clear that we're very soon—maybe even this year—going to be producing more chips than we can power on.
埃隆・马斯克：我认为，人工智能落地应用的核心瓶颈，归根结底就是电力，也就是能源。目前人工智能芯片的生产规模呈指数级增长，但全球新增的电力供应每年仅约 4%。很明显，我们很快 —— 甚至今年 —— 就会出现芯片产能远超供电能力的情况。
埃隆・马斯克：Except for China. China's growth in electricity production is tremendous.
埃隆・马斯克：但中国是个例外，中国的电力产能增长十分迅猛。
主持人：Underlying it all is nuclear power, as we speak?
主持人：这背后主要是核电的支撑吗？
埃隆・马斯克：Actually, solar is the biggest thing in China. China's solar panel production capacity is 1,500 gigawatts a year, and they're deploying over 1,000 gigawatts of solar every year. For continuous solar load, you divide that by roughly four or five, and that's around 250 gigawatts of steady-state power when paired with batteries. That's a very big number—that's half of the average power usage in the US. The US's average power usage is 500 gigawatts. China, just with solar and batteries, can provide half of the US's total electricity output.
埃隆・马斯克：其实太阳能才是中国的主力。中国的太阳能电池板年产能达到 1500 吉瓦，年部署量也超过 1000 吉瓦。如果搭配电池储能系统，将太阳能的间歇性供电换算为持续稳定供电，效率大约会折损四到五成，最终能实现约 250 吉瓦的稳定供电。这是一个惊人的数字，相当于美国平均用电量的一半 —— 美国的平均用电量约为 500 吉瓦。也就是说，中国仅依靠太阳能和储能电池，就能提供相当于美国一半的电力输出。
埃隆・马斯克：Solar is by far the biggest source of energy. And actually, when you look beyond Earth, or even on Earth, the sun accounts for essentially 100 percent of all energy. This is an important thing to consider. The sun is 99.8 percent of the mass of the solar system; Jupiter is about 0.1 percent, and everything else is miscellaneous. Even if you were to burn Jupiter in a fusion reactor, the amount of energy produced by the sun would still round up to 100 percent, because Jupiter is only 0.1 percent of the solar system's mass. If you teleported three more Jupiters into our solar system and burned all four Jupiters and everything else, the sun's energy output would still round up to 100 percent. So it's really all about the sun.
埃隆・马斯克：太阳能是目前最主要的能源来源，而且无论在地球还是宇宙中，太阳几乎为一切提供了能量，这一点我们必须认清。太阳的质量占整个太阳系的 99.8%，木星约占 0.1%，其余所有天体加起来不过是零头。即便把木星投入核聚变反应堆燃烧，太阳释放的能量依旧能占到 100%，因为木星的质量仅占太阳系的 0.1%。就算再把三颗木星送到太阳系，将四颗木星和其他所有天体全部燃烧，太阳的能量占比依旧是 100%。所以，能源的核心，终究是利用好太阳能。
埃隆・马斯克：That's why one of the things we'll be doing with SpaceX within a few years is launching solar-powered AI satellites. Because space is a source of immense power, and you don't need to take up any room on Earth. There's so much room in space, and you can scale to enormous levels—I think ultimately hundreds of terawatts a year.
埃隆・马斯克：这也是为什么 SpaceX 计划在未来几年内发射太阳能人工智能卫星。太空蕴藏着巨大的能源潜力，而且无需占用地球的土地资源。太空的空间无限，我们的能源规模能拓展到惊人的程度 —— 我认为最终能实现每年数百太瓦的供电。
主持人：We've had these conversations before, but what would you tell the audience it would take for the United States to build a solar field large enough to electrify the entire country, and what type of geography would that require? And then let me ask: why aren't we doing it?
主持人：我们之前聊过这个话题，想请你跟大家说说，美国要建一座能为全国供电的太阳能电站，需要具备哪些条件，适合建在哪些地区？另外一个问题是，我们为什么至今没有这么做？
埃隆・马斯克：The rough way to think about it is a 100 miles by 100 miles—about 160 kilometers by 160 kilometers—solar field is enough to power the entire United States. A 100-by-100-mile area is a tiny corner of Utah or Nevada—we obviously wouldn't want it all in one place, but it's a very small percentage of the US's total land area to generate all the electricity the US uses. The same is true for Europe: you could take relatively unpopulated areas of Spain or Sicily and generate all the electricity Europe needs.
埃隆・马斯克：简单来说，一座 100 英里 ×100 英里（约 160 公里 ×160 公里）的太阳能电站，就足以满足美国全国的电力需求。这样一片区域，不过是犹他州或内华达州的一个小角落 —— 当然我们不会把电站都建在一个地方，但这足以说明，仅用美国极少的土地，就能生产出全国所需的全部电力。欧洲也是如此，在西班牙、西西里的人口稀少地区建太阳能电站，就能满足整个欧洲的用电需求。
主持人：So why do you think there's not a bigger movement towards that here in Europe and in the United States?
主持人：那为什么欧洲和美国至今没有大力推进这项工程？
埃隆・马斯克：Well, there is in China. Unfortunately, in the US, the tariff barriers for solar are extremely high, which makes the economics of deploying solar artificially expensive—because China makes almost all the solar panels in the world.
埃隆・马斯克：但中国却做到了。不幸的是，美国对太阳能产品设置了极高的关税壁垒，这让太阳能的落地成本被人为抬高 —— 毕竟全球的太阳能电池板几乎都是中国生产的。
主持人：What would it take for Europe or the US to build solar capacity commercially at that scale?
主持人：那对于欧洲和美国来说，要实现规模化的商业太阳能建设，需要做出哪些改变？
埃隆・马斯克：I can tell you what we're going to do: SpaceX and Tesla are both building up large-scale solar capacity. The SpaceX and Tesla teams are separately working to build 100 gigawatts a year of solar panel manufacturing capacity in the US. That'll probably take about three years or so, but those are pre-big numbers. I encourage others to do the same. We obviously don't control US tariff policy, but for other countries, China makes solar cells that are incredibly low-cost, and I think it would be worth doing large-scale solar projects with them.
埃隆・马斯克：我可以说说我们的计划：SpaceX 和特斯拉都在大力布局大规模太阳能产业，两家公司的团队正分别在美国推进太阳能电池板生产，目标是实现年产能 100 吉瓦。这一过程大概需要三年时间，目前的数字还只是前期规划。我也鼓励其他企业加入进来。我们显然无法左右美国的关税政策，但对于其他国家来说，中国生产的太阳能电池板价格极具优势，与之合作开展大规模太阳能项目，绝对是明智之选。
主持人：I know you're going to be having a couple of big announcements on robotics and what it can do. When I went to the factory, you showed me those robots. You talked about billions of robots—how quickly can they be deployed in a manufacturing setting? How quickly can they be utilized, be functional, and create that abundance you talked about?
主持人：我知道你即将发布多项机器人技术的重磅消息，我去工厂时，你也给我展示过相关的机器人产品。你提到未来会有数十亿台机器人，那这些机器人能多快落地制造业？能多快实现实际应用、具备完整功能，最终创造出你所说的丰裕社会？
埃隆・马斯克：Even though humanoid robotics will advance very quickly, we already have some Tesla Optimus robots doing simple tasks in the factory. We expect that probably later this year, by the end of this year, they'll be doing more complex tasks, still in an industrial environment. And probably sometime next year—by the end of next year—I think we'll be selling humanoid robots to the public. That's when we are confident that they have very high reliability, very high safety, and a wide range of functionality—you can basically ask them to do anything you'd like.
埃隆・马斯克：人形机器人技术的发展速度会非常快，目前已经有一些特斯拉擎天柱机器人在工厂里完成简单的工作。我们预计，今年下半年，这些机器人就能在工业场景中完成更复杂的任务。到明年年底，我们有望向公众发售人形机器人 —— 届时我们能确保机器人具备极高的可靠性和安全性，同时拥有丰富的功能，大家几乎可以让它完成任何想做的事。
主持人：We're already seeing this in cars: the software updates you're doing, it's every quarter now, a software change that upgrades the ability of the autonomous systems in the car.
主持人：其实在汽车领域，我们已经实现了这样的技术迭代：如今特斯拉的车载自动驾驶系统，每季度都会通过软件更新提升性能。
埃隆・马斯克：Yes. In terms of Full Self-Driving software, we update it sometimes once a week. Recently, some insurance companies have said that Tesla's Full Self-Driving is so safe that they're offering customers half-price insurance if they use Tesla Autopilot/FSD in the car—and that usage can be monitored by the insurance company.
埃隆・马斯克：没错，全自动驾驶（FSD）软件的更新频率甚至能达到每周一次。最近有保险公司表示，特斯拉的全自动驾驶系统安全性极高，只要车主开启该系统并接受保险公司的监控，就能享受半价车险。
主持人：Is that part of the agreement?
主持人：这是保险协议的一部分吗？
埃隆・马斯克：Yeah.
埃隆・马斯克：是的。
埃隆・马斯克：I think self-driving cars is essentially a solved problem at this point. Tesla has rolled out robotaxi service in a few cities, and it'll be very widespread by the end of this year within the US. Then we hope to get supervised self-driving approval in Europe, hopefully next month, and maybe a similar timeline for China, hopefully.
埃隆・马斯克：在我看来，自动驾驶汽车的技术问题已经基本解决。特斯拉已经在多个城市推出了无人驾驶出租车服务，今年年底前，这项服务将在美国全面普及。我们也希望能在下个月获得欧洲的有监督自动驾驶审批，中国的审批也有望在同期落地。
主持人：I want to move to space. Historically, space has been very capital-intensive, and it was historically done by governments. SpaceX changed the whole model, but we've seen it's slow to scale, and now I'm starting to see it ramping up with what you're doing in other areas. Talk to us about how automation and AI are changing the economics of building, preparing for, and operating in space.
主持人：接下来我们聊聊航天领域。在历史上，航天领域的资金投入巨大，且一直由各国政府主导。SpaceX 彻底改变了这一模式，虽然前期规模化推进较慢，但如今我看到这项事业正在加速。想请你说说，自动化和人工智能技术，如何改变航天领域的研发、筹备和运营成本？
埃隆・马斯克：Sure.
埃隆・马斯克：没问题。
埃隆・马斯克：The key breakthrough that SpaceX is hoping to achieve this year is full reusability. No one has ever achieved full reusability of a rocket, which is very important for the cost of access to space. We've achieved partial reusability with Falcon 9 by landing the boost stage—we've now landed the boost stage over 500 times. But we have to throw away the upper stage; it burns up on re-entry for Falcon 9. The cost of that upper stage is equivalent to a small to medium-sized jet.
埃隆・马斯克：SpaceX 今年希望实现的核心技术突破，是火箭的完全可回收利用。此前从未有企业实现过火箭的完全回收，而这一点，对降低太空探索的成本至关重要。我们已经通过 “猎鹰 9 号” 实现了助推器的回收，至今助推器的回收次数已经超过 500 次，但火箭的上面级仍无法回收，在 “猎鹰 9 号” 的任务中，上面级最终会在再入大气层时烧毁，而这一上面级的成本，相当于一架中小型客机。
主持人：But with Starship—a giant rocket, the largest flying machine ever made, which we're using for the Mars mission, right?
主持人：而 “星舰”—— 这款人类有史以来最大的飞行器，也是你们用于火星探索的核心火箭，对吧？
埃隆・马斯克：Yeah, Mars and the Moon, as well as for high-volume satellite launches. With Starship, hopefully this year we should prove full reusability, which will be a profound invention because the cost of access to space will drop by a factor of 100 when you achieve full reusability. It's the same sort of economic difference between a reusable aircraft and a non-reusable aircraft: if you have to throw an aircraft away after every flight, it would be an extremely expensive flight, but if you only have to refuel it, it's just the cost of the fuel. That's the fundamental breakthrough that gets the cost of access to space below the cost of freight on aircraft—easily under $100 a pound. That makes putting large satellites into space very, very cheap.
埃隆・马斯克：是的，它不仅会用于火星、月球探索，还会承担大规模的卫星发射任务。我们希望今年能实现 “星舰” 的完全可回收利用，这将是一项划时代的发明：一旦实现完全回收，太空探索的成本将降低 99%。这就像可回收飞机和一次性飞机的成本差距 —— 如果每次飞行后都要丢弃飞机，那飞行成本会高得离谱，而如果只是加油再利用，成本就只剩燃油费。这一核心突破，会让太空运输的成本低于飞机货运，轻松实现每磅货物运输成本低于 100 美元，也会让大型卫星的发射变得极其低廉。
埃隆・马斯克：And when you have solar power in space, you get about five times more efficiency than solar on the ground—maybe even more. Because it's always sunny in space, right? No day-night cycle, no seasonality, no weather. And you get about 30 percent more power because there's no atmospheric attenuation. The net effect is that any given solar panel will produce five times more energy in space than on the ground.
埃隆・马斯克：而且太空太阳能的利用效率，比地面太阳能高出约 5 倍，甚至更多。因为在太空中，阳光是持续不断的，没有昼夜交替，没有季节变化，也没有天气影响，再加上没有大气层的遮挡，太阳能的利用效率还能再提升 30%。最终的结果就是，同一块太阳能电池板，在太空中的发电量是地面的 5 倍。
主持人：Is there any capacity to take that power and bring it back to Earth, or are you just taking that power and utilizing it for space-based needs, like building AI data centers in space?
主持人：那这些太空产生的电力，能否传输回地球？还是说，这些电力会直接用于太空领域，比如在太空中建设人工智能数据中心？
埃隆・马斯克：I think it's a no-brainer for building solar-powered AI data centers in space. Because space is very cold—if you're in the shadow, it's 3 degrees Kelvin. So you just have solar panels facing the sun, and a radiator pointed away from the sun with no solar incidence, and it's just passive cooling—a very efficient cooling system. The net effect is that the lowest cost place to put AI will be space, and that'll be true within two years, maybe three at the latest.
埃隆・马斯克：在太空中建设太阳能人工智能数据中心，显然是明智之选。因为太空的温度极低，在背阴处，温度仅为 3 开尔文（约 - 270℃）。我们只需让太阳能电池板朝向太阳，再搭配一个背向太阳的散热器，就能实现无源冷却，冷却效率极高。所以未来，建设人工智能数据中心的成本洼地会是太空，这一点在未来 2 到 3 年内就会成为现实。
主持人：Looking 10 or 20 years out, how would you describe success for AI or space technology? And what do you see coming? Are you more certain about what's going to happen in the next three years, five years, or 10 years?
主持人：展望未来 10 到 20 年，你认为人工智能和航天技术的成功标志是什么？未来会有哪些发展？你对未来 3 年、5 年、10 年的发展，哪一个阶段更有把握？
埃隆・马斯克：I don't know what's going to happen in 10 years, but the rate at which AI is progressing—we might have AI that is smarter than any single human by the end of this year, no later than next year. And then probably by 2030 or 2031—about five years from now—AI will be smarter than all of humanity collectively.
埃隆・马斯克：我无法预测 10 年后的事，但人工智能的发展速度超乎想象 —— 今年年底前，我们或许就能拥有比任何一个人类都聪明的人工智能，最晚不会超过明年。而到 2030 或 2031 年，也就是约 5 年后，人工智能的整体智慧，将超越全人类的总和。
主持人：We only have a few minutes left, but I want to humanize you for a second, so there's no speculation that you're a piece of Greenland, right? I want to frame this question by saying: you're the most successful entrepreneur and industrialist of the 21st century, maybe ever. What inspired you? Who inspired you? What was the foundation of your curiosity? And importantly, was there an aha moment, an epiphany, at any time in your life or career?
主持人：我们的时间不多了，最后我想让大家看到一个更真实的你，打破 “你是格陵兰一小块碎片” 的玩笑式猜测。我想这样问你：你是 21 世纪，甚至人类历史上最成功的企业家和实业家，是什么激励着你？哪些人对你产生了影响？你的好奇心，根源是什么？还有一个重要的问题，在你的人生和职业生涯中，是否有过顿悟的时刻？
埃隆・马斯克：Well, as a kid, I read a lot of science fiction, fantasy books, and comic books. I was always fascinated by technology. I didn't expect to be where I am today—it seemed incredibly implausible. But I was inspired by reading books about the future, about science fiction, and I guess I wanted to make science fiction not fiction forever—to turn science fiction into science fact. We want to have Starfleet and Star Trek for real: giant spaceships traveling through space, going to other planets, other star systems. I'd love to be beamed back to New York instead of flying, you know.
埃隆・马斯克：小时候，我读了很多科幻、奇幻小说和漫画，一直对科技充满痴迷。我从未想过自己能走到今天，这在当初看来几乎是不可能的。但那些关于未来、关于科幻的书籍，深深激励了我。我想做的，就是让科幻不再只是幻想，而是变成现实。我希望《星际迷航》中的星际舰队能成为现实：巨型宇宙飞船穿梭在太空，抵达其他行星、其他恒星系统；我也希望能像剧中一样，瞬间传送到纽约，而不是坐飞机。
埃隆・马斯克：Star Trek is really the core of my philosophy of curiosity. I'd like to understand the meaning of life: is the standard model of physics correct regarding the beginning of existence and the end of the universe? What questions do we not know to ask that we should ask? AI will help us with these things. So I'm just trying to figure out how do we get here, what's going on, what's real? Are there aliens? Maybe there are. If we have spaceships traveling to other star systems, we may encounter aliens, and we may find many long-dead alien civilizations. But I just want to know what's going on—I'm curious about the universe. That's my philosophy.
埃隆・马斯克：《星际迷航》所传递的探索精神，正是我核心的人生信条。我想弄明白生命的意义：关于宇宙的诞生和终结，物理学的标准模型是否正确？我们还有哪些该问却没问的问题？而人工智能，会帮助我们找到答案。我只是想弄清楚，我们从何而来，当下正发生什么，什么才是真实的？宇宙中有外星人吗？或许有。如果我们的飞船能抵达其他恒星系统，或许能遇见外星人，也可能发现许多早已消亡的外星文明。我只是想探索真相，因为我对宇宙充满好奇，这就是我的人生哲学。
主持人：Do you see yourself ever going to Mars in your lifetime?
主持人：你认为自己有生之年能登上火星吗？
埃隆・马斯克：Yeah. I've been asked how long the trip is—it's six months each way, right? The planets only align every two years. I've been asked a few times if I want to die on Mars, and I'm like, yes—but just not on impact.
埃隆・马斯克：当然。总有人问我火星之旅需要多久，单程大约 6 个月，对吧？而且火星和地球的会合周期是两年一次。也有人问我，是否愿意死在火星上，我的答案是愿意 —— 但前提是，不要在登陆时坠毁。
主持人：That's a good answer. Anyway, we're out of time. I hope everybody enjoyed this. There are so many myths around Elon Musk, and I can tell you he's a great friend. I constantly learn so much from him, and I'm totally inspired by what he has done, who he is, and his vision of the future. I don't think it's such a bad future, and I agree with his optimism. So Elon, thank you. Any last words?
主持人：这个答案应该还不错。好了，我们的对话时间到了。希望大家能喜欢今天的交流。关于埃隆・马斯克，外界有很多不实传言，但我可以告诉大家，他是一位非常好的朋友。我总能从他身上学到很多，他的成就、他的为人、他对未来的愿景，都让我深受鼓舞。我认为他描绘的未来，并不可怕，而且我完全认同他的乐观态度。埃隆，谢谢你。最后还有什么想对大家说的吗？
埃隆・马斯克：Well, I think generally, my last words would be: I would encourage everyone to be optimistic and excited about the future. And for quality of life, it is actually better to err on the side of being an optimist and wrong, rather than a pessimist and right.
埃隆・马斯克：我想对大家说的是：希望所有人都能对未来保持乐观和期待。而且从生活质量的角度来说，宁做乐观的失败者，不做悲观的成功者。
THE END
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