注：本文原发于深度星球北京时间4月11日的内容，部分内容已删减，完整版可在文末获取。
Sean's take : https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2
We've seen investor sentiment and positioning flip this week after a temporary ceasefire deal early in the week. Equities jumped, crude dumped, and VIX cooled off. This came after last week's bounces from key support levels across several key names. A few key indicators are flashing signs of a reversal from bearish to bullish. However, the most important one remains crude oil, which, despite all the charades Trump is trying to put on to mask his defeat, remains in a bullish trend. Oil price differentials have converged back to pre-war levels.
在周初达成一项临时停火协议后，投资者情绪与仓位出现了逆转。股市飙升，原油暴跌，波动率指数降温。在此之前，上周多个关键标的均从关键支撑位反弹。一些关键指标正在闪烁着从看空转向看多的反转信号。然而，最重要的指标仍然是原油，尽管特朗普试图粉饰其失败，但原油依然处于看涨趋势之中。 原油价差已收敛至战前水平。
图：全球原油基准（Global Crude Benchmarks，日线，截至2026-04-10）
CL posted a clean break last Thursday following Trump's disappointing address on the Iran war on Wednesday night. It then tested our multi-year resistance around 117 before reversing sharply lower on the temporary ceasefire deal. It is now sitting on major support as the world watches the negotiations this weekend. A failure to reopen the Strait will send crude back to test the major resistance around 117, after which comes 140, and then 180-200. If a reopening of the Strait is agreed upon and put on a clear timetable, CL will start heading back into the 80s.
上周三晚特朗普就伊朗战争发表了令人失望的讲话后，WTI原油（CL）在上周四实现了干脆的向上突破。随后，原油测试了我们指出的117附近的多重年度阻力位，之后因临时停火协议而大幅反转走低。目前，全世界都在关注本周末的谈判，原油正处于重要支撑位上方。如果海峡未能重新开放，原油将回升并再次测试117附近的主要阻力位，突破后将看向140，然后是180-200。如果各方就重新开放海峡达成一致并制定明确的时间表，WTI原油将开始回落至80美元区间。
图：WTI原油期货（CL，日线，截至2026-04-10）
图：WTI原油期货（CL，月线，截至2026-04-10）
A meaningful breach from the box consolidation. If it doesn't reclaim the box in the next few sessions, it's likely to head lower.
这是一次对箱体震荡区间的有效跌破。如果不能在接下来的几个交易日内收复该箱体，大概率将进一步走低。
图： 布伦特原油期货（BZ，日线，截至2026-04-10）
Gold faces significant resistance around the 4770 level. It has attempted to thrust higher since Wednesday, but could not hold above 4770 into the close. A clean break above this key resistance will open the door to more upside. If it starts to reverse from here, the major trendline around 4.1K comes into play.
黄金在4770点位附近面临重大阻力。自周三以来，金价试图向上突围，但收盘未能企稳于4770上方。如果能干净利落地突破这一关键阻力位，将打开进一步上涨的空间。如果从当前位置开始反转，4.1K附近的主要趋势线将成为关键支撑。
图：黄金（Gold，日线，截至2026-04-10）
Silver needs to climb above 79 to see more upside.
白银需要攀升至79上方才能看到更多上涨空间。
图：白银（Silver，日线，截至2026-04-10）
After backtesting the key 5.55 level from above earlier this week, it has put in a nice, clean thrust higher. For now, the structure has turned from bearish to bullish. Unless we see an escalation in the Middle East, copper is set to head higher to test the upper channel.
铜价在本周初自上而下回测了5.55的关键支撑位后，走出了漂亮、利落的上攻行情。目前来看，技术形态已由看空转为看多。除非中东局势升级，否则铜价有望走高，测试通道上轨。
图：铜期货（HG，日线，截至2026-04-10）
DXY gapped down following the ceasefire deal. 99 remains the key level to watch, and DXY has struggled to post a clean close above this level since the ceasefire deal. For now, it looks bearish. This supports equities and gold in the short term.
美元指数在停火协议达成后向下跳空。99仍然是需要关注的关键点位，自停火协议以来，美元指数一直未能明确收于该水平上方。目前来看，美元走势偏空。这在短期内对股市和黄金构成支撑。
图：美元指数（DXY，日线，截至2026-04-10）
Yields are flat this week despite the ceasefire headlines, and U 2Y yields are still hanging on to the key 3.8% level. The equity market seems to have bought into the idea of a permanent peace deal and a reopening of the Strait, but the bond market disagrees. As long as the war drags on, we should see higher oil prices for longer higher inflation expectations>higher yields>lower equity multiples especially for long-duration names such as the M7. As long as the Strait is not back in business, we should expect higher oil prices and higher yields across the globe.
尽管有停火的头条新闻，但本周收益率表现平平，美国2年期国债收益率仍坚守在3.8%的关键水平。股票市场似乎已经买入了永久和平协议和海峡重新开放的预期，但债券市场并不认同。只要战争拖延下去，我们就应该会看到油价维持在更高水平的时间更长，从而推高通胀预期 > 推高收益率 > 压低股票估值乘数，特别是对于如“科技七巨头”（M7）等长久期资产而言。只要海峡没有恢复通航，我们就应预期全球油价和收益率都将走高。
图： 美国2年期国债收益率（US2Y，日线，截至2026-04-10）
In the short term, 3.8% and 3.6% are the key support levels to watch, while 4% acts as resistance. Should yields start to grind higher from the current level, a retest of the recent high around 4% is very much in play.
短期内，3.8%和3.6%是需要关注的关键支撑位，而4%则是阻力位。如果收益率从当前水平开始震荡攀升，则极有可能重新测试4%附近的近期高点。
图：美国2年期国债收益率（US2Y，日线，截至2026-04-10）
图：美国10年期国债收益率（US10Y，日线，截至2026-04-10）
US30Y left a fakeout before reversing lower back below the resistance this week. It remains a key asset to monitor, as a confirmed breakout would bring devastating consequences for global equities.
美国30年期国债收益率本周在走出假突破后，反转回落至阻力位下方。它仍是需要监控的关键资产，因为一旦确认有效突破，将对全球股市带来毁灭性的后果。
图：美国30年期国债收益率（US30Y，日线，截至2026-04-10）
VIX posted a clean break below the key trendline support following the ceasefire deal. This structure is not supportive of our ES shorts. It must climb back above the trendline early next week; otherwise, we face an increasingly strong buffer against equity downside.
波动率指数在停火协议达成后，干脆利落地跌破了关键的趋势线支撑。这种结构对我们的标普500期货（ES）空头仓位不利。它必须在下周初重新攀升至该趋势线之上；否则，我们将面临股市下行过程中越来越强的缓冲阻力。
图：波动率指数（VIX，日线，截至2026-04-10）
We went short SPX before the war started, called the bottom when SPX was trading around 6370, and warned of significant upside risk should a ceasefire deal be reached before Tuesday's deadline. We turned bearish again this Thursday, shorting near the highs. I also posted an article on X yesterday regarding the U.S.-Iran negotiations. View the translated version here. A clean breach above the downtrend resistance around 6870 (ES=6910) should invalidate my downside thesis and open the door to new ATHs. The risk-reward on this setup is too asymmetric to ignore.
我们在战争爆发前做空了标普500指数，在标普交投于6370点附近时精准抄底，并警告称如果周二最后期限前达成停火协议，将存在巨大的上行风险。本周四我们再次转为看空，在接近高点的位置建立了空仓。我昨天还在X（原Twitter）上发布了一篇关于美伊谈判的文章。
如果能有效突破6870附近的下行趋势阻力位（ES=6910），我的看跌逻辑将被证伪，并打开通往历史新高的大门。这一交易设置的风险收益比极具不对称优势，不容忽视。
图：标普500指数（SPX，日线，截至2026-04-10）
NDX backtested the major trendline from below on Friday. A clean break above it should invalidate my downside thesis, and the market would gradually turn back to the Al theme.
纳斯达克100指数周五自下而上回测了主要趋势线。如果能有效突破该趋势线，将证伪我的看跌逻辑，市场将逐步回归AI主线。
图：纳斯达克100指数（NDX，日线，截至2026-04-10）
Dow bounced precisely from our 45K support level.
道琼斯工业平均指数精准地从我们给出的45000点支撑位反弹。
图：道琼斯工业平均指数（DJI，日线，截至2026-04-10）
Backtesting the uptrend resistance from below. A clean break will open the door to a new ATH.
罗素2000指数正自下而上回测上行趋势阻力位。若能有效突破，将打开通往历史新高的大门。
图：罗素2000指数（RUT，日线，截至2026-04-10）
图：日经225指数（NIKKEI，日线，截至2026-04-10）
印度Nifty 50指数、富时100指数、半导体ETF、NVDA、GOOGL、TSLA、PLTR、MSFT、META、AMZN、AAPL...
Good luck and Godspeed!
祝各位好运，交易顺利！
完整内容订阅链接：Sean' take:https://t.zsxq.com/aUUD2
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