来源：市场资讯
（来源：经济管理学刊）
近日，据PNAC官网显示，北京大学博雅特聘教授、汇丰商学院院长王鹏飞和2011年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、北京大学汇丰商学院萨金特数量经济与金融研究所荣誉主任托马斯·萨金特（Thomas J. Sargent）、清华大学经济管理学院教授董丰、中央财经大学金融学院助理教授王艺臻的合作论文“Debt as a blessing: A capital screening mechanism" （债务何以成为福祉：一种资本筛选机制）在《美国国家科学院院刊》（Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, PNAS）发表。
# 论文简介 #
Title：
Debt as a blessing: A capital screening mechanism
Author：
Feng Dong, Thomas J. Sargent, Pengfei Wang, Yizhen Wang
Abstract：
We challenge a recently popular view that a negative interest-growth rate gap (r＜g) offers a “free lunch” for debt-financed government spending by formulating a model in which and are endogenous variables shaped by fiscal policy through its effects on equilibrium multiplicity and capital allocation. Observing r＜g can signal that sustained government deficits have generated multiple steady states, and the economy has converged to a stable low-efficiency equilibrium. With its heterogeneous entrepreneurs, the model’s real interest rate serves as a screening device for investment efficiency. Causation runs from the fiscal regime to equilibrium selection and outcomes: Fiscal surpluses eliminate equilibrium multiplicity and anchor expectations that sustain a unique, high-productivity equilibrium, thereby rationalizing Alexander Hamilton’s characterization of “debt as a blessing.” Persistent deficits can push the economy into a “misallocation trap” characterized by scarce safe assets, low interest rates, survival of inefficient firms, depressed aggregate productivity, and self-validating low growth. Thus, costs of debt-financed fiscal deficits consist not only of deferred taxes, but also of permanently lower national productive capacity.
标题：
债务何以成为福祉：一种资本筛选机制
中文摘要：
我们构建了一个模型，其中利率与增长率均为内生变量，受财政政策通过均衡多重性与资本配置的影响而内生决定，据此对近期流行的“负利率-增长率缺口（r＜g）为债务融资型政府支出提供‘免费午餐’”这一观点提出挑战。观察到r＜g可能表明，持续的政府赤字已催生多重稳态，且经济已收敛至一个低效率的稳定均衡。在该模型中，由于存在异质性企业家，实际利率充当投资效率的筛选机制。因果方向是从财政体制到均衡选择及其结果：财政盈余消除均衡多重性，并锚定预期，使之维持唯一的高生产率均衡，从而为亚历山大·汉密尔顿将“债务视为祝福”的论断提供理论依据。而持续赤字则可能将经济推入“错配陷阱”，其特征为安全资产稀缺、利率走低、低效企业存续、总生产率低迷，以及自我实现式的低增长。因此，债务融资型财政赤字的成本不仅体现为递延税收，更体现为国民生产能力的永久性下降。
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