来源：市场资讯
来源：五一干点儿啥
The Economist August 1st 2026
Forget Airbus and Boeing
Embraer is soaring
Its boss has ambitious plans for the future
忘了空客、波音，巴西航空工业迅猛崛起
公司负责人对未来雄心勃勃
1、S OME PASSENGER planes are named with purely utilitarian alphanumerics： think Airbus’s A 380． Occasionally the aerospace giants aim to convey something loftier． Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner presents an image of modern comfort； Airbus’s A 320neo highlights its use of the latest in aviation technology． Embraer， the world’s third-largest maker of passenger jets， takes a blunter approach． Since2017 it has marketed its fuel-efficient E 2 regional jet as the “ProfitHunter”．
往往客机纯粹用字母和数字命名，如空客A380。有时这些航空巨头试图传达更崇高的理念。波音787梦幻客机传递出科技舒适的形象；空客A320neo突显航空技术的最新应用。而作为全球第三大民用飞机制造商，巴西航空工业公司Embraer采取更直接的方式。2017年来，该公司一直将燃油效率极高的E2支线客机定位为“利润猎手”。
2、The Brazilian company is a fraction of the size of Airbus and Boeing． But it has had a remarkable few years． Demand is soaring not only for its smaller passenger planes， but also for the private and military jets it offers． In 2021 the company delivered a total of 141 planes． This year it might reach 255． On July 24th the company reported that its order backlog had reached a record $34.5bn． Francisco Gomes Neto， Embraer’s boss， sees an opportunity for “substantial growth” ahead． Investors agree． Since the start of 2021 its share price has risen roughly ten-fold， far outpacing those of Airbus or Boeing （see chart）． Some now speculate that Embraer may take a tilt at the market for larger jets， going nose-to-nose with the aerospace industry’s twin giants．
这家巴西企业的规模仅为空客和波音的小部分。然而，它在过去几年取得显著成就。不仅小型客机的需求激增，它提供的私人和军用飞机也受到热烈追捧。2021年，该公司共交付141架飞机。今年是255架。7月24日，公司宣布backlog创纪录的订单量345亿美元。巴西航空工业公司首席执行官弗朗西斯科·戈麦斯·内托Francisco Gomes Neto认为，还有巨大的增长空间。投资者对此表示认同。2021年初以来，该公司股价上涨约十倍，远超空客和波音（见图）。目前推测，巴西航空工业公司Embraer或将进军大型喷气机市场，与航空航天行业的两大巨头正面竞争。
3、Embraer is benefiting from a number of tailwinds． Airlines these days must wait eight to ten years for a large narrow-body plane from Airbus or Boeing， which have a combined order backlog of 16，000 passenger jets thanks to rising demand for air travel and long-running supply-chain snags dating back to the covid-19 pandemic． That has led to a surge in demand for the smaller E 2， which can be delivered in less than two years．
Embraer受益于多种因素。如今，航空公司须等待8到10年才能获得空客或波音生产的大型窄体飞机，而这两家公司的订单积压量高达16，000架客机，主要是航空旅行需求上升及新冠疫情以来积累的供应链问题所致。这导致小型E2机型的需求激增，该机型目前可在两年内交付。
4、A growing preference for direct travel between smaller airports rather than through giant hubs will further boost demand for smaller planes to fly new routes， says Ron Baur of Azorra， a leasing firm that has over 50 E 2s on order． The aircraft’s only direct competitor by size is the A 220 from Airbus， in a market that Embraer forecasts at 8，500 such planes over the next two decades． As Mr Gomes Neto points out， even if it is only half that number and Embraer gets half the orders， the demand will still occupy its production capacity for 20 years． Moreover， Embraer’s even smaller E 175 jet is the only aircraft in production that is available to regional feeder airlines in America， owing to collective bargaining agreements with pilots’ unions that restrict the maximum size of plane they can use．
Azorra租赁公司负责人Ron Baur表示，人们倾向于从小型机场直接出发，而非经由大型枢纽中转，对小型飞机执飞新航线的需求进一步增长。该公司已订购超50架E2机型。在当前市场中，E2的唯一同尺寸直接竞争对手是空客A220，Embraer预计未来二十年内该类飞机的市场需求达到8，500架。正如Gomes Neto先生指出，即使实际订单仅一半，Embraer获得一半的订单量，其产能仍将满足持续20年的需求。此外，由于飞行员工与航空公司签订的集体谈判协议限制飞机的最大尺寸，巴西航空工业公司Embraer生产的小型E175喷气式飞机是目前美国地区支线航空运营商唯一可获得机型。
5、Then there is the surge in private-jet sales that has been under way since the pandemic． Embraer is dominant in the market for small and medium-sized models． Its Phenom 300， which seats up to ten passengers， has been the best seller in its class for 14 years． Booming defence spending around the world has also lifted orders for the KC 390， a military-transport plane． And a controlling stake in EVE ， a flying-taxi firm， looks a better bet now that the vast number of startups in the field has been whittled down to a handful of plausible survivors．
另外疫情以来，私人飞机销售持续增长。Embraer在中小型机型市场占据主导地位。其Phenom 300型号最多可容纳十名乘客，已连续14年成为同级别中的畅销机型。全球国防开支的大幅增加推动军用运输机KC-390订单量上升。而随着该领域大量初创企业削减，在少数的幸存者中，Embraer对飞行出租公司EVE的控股看起来更具吸引力。
6、Yet Mr Gomes Neto thinks he must “prepare the company for a new cycle of products that will support more ambitious growth”． One possibility is to make a large private jet． A bolder and riskier step would be to develop a bigger commercial jet to take on Airbus and Boeing， which are expected to roll out replacements for their corenarrow-body planes towards the end of the 2030s． Neither has much incentive to make big investments while the current ones are selling well， which could create an opening for Embraer． Breaking the duopoly’s grip would be a huge undertaking．
然而，戈麦斯·内托先生认为，他必须“为公司做好准备，迎接一个更宏大增长的新产品周期”。一种可能的选择是制造大型私人飞机；而更具胆识、风险更大的举措，是开发一款新的商用客机，挑战空客和波音，这两家巨头预计在2040年前推出主力窄体飞机的替代机型。目前的项目销售表现良好，而埃姆布拉航空Embraer又缺乏足够动力进行大规模投资，这可能为该公司创造机会。打破寡头垄断局面将是一项艰巨的任务。
7、Bombardier’s attempt nearly bankrupted it and ended in a forced sale of the programme for a nominal sum to Airbus in 2018 （where it became the A 220）． Guillaume Faury， Airbus’s boss， has warned Embraer to “think twice”． Yet the rewards of taking even a small share of a market that Boeing puts at 36，000 jets over the next two decades would also be far greater than for a new private jet． Ron Epstein of Bank of America says it would take Embraer to the “next level”．
庞巴迪曾试图将其拖垮，并于2018年被迫以微薄价格将该项目出售给空中客车Airbus，该机型后来成为A220。空中客车负责人纪尧姆·福里Guillaume Faury警告埃姆布拉航空“三思而后行”。然而，即便在接下来二十年内，波音计划推出36，000架喷气式客机的市场中，埃姆布拉航空若能获得哪怕小份额，回报也将远超一款新型私人飞机。美国银行的罗恩·爱泼斯坦Ron Epstein表示，这将使埃姆布拉航空迈向“下一阶段”。
8、Embraer may never again have such an opportunity to put its experience in manufacturing and marketing commercial jets to work． Mr Gomes Neto points out that over 20 years or so it has certified almost 20 new aircraft—an impressive performance． The firm’s reputation means that prospective customers would take it seriously．
埃姆布拉航空或再难有机会将自身在商用飞机制造和营销方面的经验付诸实践。戈麦斯·内托先生指出，近20年来，该公司已认证近20款新飞机，令人印象深刻。公司良好的声誉意味着潜在的客户。
9、But it would need to find partners to stump up some of the $10bn or so that the new plane would cost to develop， says Alberto Valerio of UBS ， a bank， including perhaps an engine-maker and other suppliers， as well as customers and outside investors． The question of whether to go after the duopoly is rumoured to divide opinion at Embraer． Luckily it has plenty of time to make a decision． As Mr Gomes Neto insists： “We are very comfortable with the situation we have”． ■
但要找到合作伙伴，共筹新机型研发所需资金约100亿美元，UBS银行阿尔贝托·瓦莱里奥表示，这些合作伙伴包括发动机制造商及其他供应商，客户和外部投资者。关于是否争夺寡头地位，据传巴西航空工业公司Embraer内部有分歧。幸运的是，该公司有充足的时间决定。正如戈麦斯·内托先生坚持：“我们对前景非常满意。” （完）
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